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Old 01-07-2018, 10:54 AM   #1
Teach
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Sunday: January 7: Gulfsteam Pick-6

Good Morning from “Beantown” (actually 20 miles west). As Thomas Paine would write during the American Revolution, “These are the times that try men’s souls”. It was - 3 degrees this morning; yet – go figure – it’s supposed to be in the 50s by the end of the week. What is it that Mark Twain wrote: “If you don’t like the weather in New England now, just wait a few minutes.”

Yes, I’m going to try to handicap the 20-cent Pick-6 at Gulfsteam Park. Mucho dinero!

Race Six: (est. post: 2:35 pm).

I don’t wanna get beat comin’ out of the gate. No breaking a step slow. No breaking in a tangle. No dwelt. I’m picking three horses in the first leg. In post-position order:

POUND TO PENNIES. I like the rider switch to Irad. He’s ridden this chestnut filly once before and finished 2nd. Speaking of finishing 2nd, this filly has done that three straight times. She “catches the bouquet,” yet she has yet “to take her vows,” i.e., break her maiden. Is today the day? A personal note: I like Storm Cat-bred turf horses.
COMPETITIVEBALANCE. I always sit up and take notice when the horse’s trainer is “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown. This “first-timer” has a shot. I like the breeding. The dam, Marie’s Rose, was stakes-placed, a turf winner. That speaks volumes. Personally, in turf races, I give a lot of attention to “the bottom side”. You can add to the equation the riding skills of Jose Ortiz. The “connections” are excellent. Whenever I see the red “KS” on the racing silks - that catches my attention.
BATTLE FLAG. This War Front-bred filly ships in from “Across The Pond” for trainer Chad Brown (Brown does well with outside-the-U.S. shippers). This grey filly also gets Lasix for the first time. I must admit I’m a big fan of the Hall-of-Famer, Johnny V. He is so good on a horse; his timing is impeccable. This Danzig-bred may need a race, yet Brown does very well with horses that have been away from the races.

Race Seven:

HELIODORO (Gustines) I couldn’t resist! Yes, this is a value-play. And yes, this Quality Road-bred has won only twice in 25 tries. Not very reassuring. But hark, this filly is dropping conditions faster than Steven Tyler in “Love in an Elevator”. My science teacher used to say: “Water seeks its own level.” Well, has the level been reached? At least for this gelding in this race. The two “Ni(c)ks: combine: jockey Nik Juarez and trainer Nick Zito. In summation: I believe, at this level, this gelding cannot be ignored. As my Latin teacher used to say: “Ignorare periculum tuo!” Ignore at your own peril!
LITTLE MATT draws the rail. This bay gelding won by a Hallandale city-block in his last in this company. …In this company. That cannot be ignored. The connections are in place: jockey Emisael Jaramillio and trainer Vic Barboza. Yes, this gelding does move up to face winners of two, lifetime; yet… This In Summation-bred does fit well in this company.
COTTON COLORS was claimed out of last by trainer Peter Walder (Walder does well with horses entered in their first start off a claim). I like this gelding’s outside starting post; I believe it suits his running style. This gelding has been competitive at this level. I know: two wins in 29 tries, not reassuring. Yet, I like the fact that Jose Ortiz is in the irons.

Race Eight:

PASS IT ON has the support of top-notch “connections”: Johnny V. and “Shug”. This Data Link-bred filly has shown little on the NYRA circuit, albeit against better caliber MSW entrants. This filly also get 1st time Lasix (“Shug” does very well with 1st time Lasix horses). Johnny V. is Johnny V. You don’t get voted in The Hall-of-Fame without having outstanding riding skills.
TAPITAI gets the riding services of Jose Ortiz; that a big plus. In her only race, this chestnut filly finished 3rd at CD back in November, that despite being bumped at the start. “Rusty” Arnold’s a solid trainer ho does well with horses making their second career start.
KATHY’s CLOWN (sounds like the Everly Brothers) ran a decent race against similar in her last. There is room for improvement. “El Dominicano,” Senor Jo-el Rosario, is in the irons. Although Rosario’s not hyaving a particularly stellar GP meet, he must be respected for the riding skills he brings to the table. Pat Biancone trains.

Race Nine:

SONGUER is my choice in this OC. I freely admit I’m a big fan of John Velazquez. He is so good at timing his winning moves. I especially like Johnny V. in turf races. This geld won last time; he can repeat. One of this country’s best trainers, the “Big D’s Todd Pletcher, is this gelding’s conditioner.
LUNAIRE has faced better on the NYRA Circuit. This Malibu Moon-bred has the services of one of the best, Javier Castellano. This A.P. Indy-bred should be closing in deep stretch. Tom Albertrani trains.

TIPSY KITTEN is another horse that has a shot, here. Luis Saez, the Panamanian-born jock, is a solid turf rider. I make it a point of not ignoring him in turf races. This Kitten’s Joy-bred won her last about three weeks ago. David Fawkes trains.

TEXAS ZIP, the Jonathan Sheppard (when I see his name I always think “jumper” races) trainee, was narrowly 3rd to Songeur in his last. This gelding should be competitive with these. The veteran, Edgar Prado, is in the irons.

Race Ten:

SUMMER SCAMP gets my lukewarm, tepid nod in what I see as a wide-open race that’s filled with turf horses making a start on the main in a lower-level claimer. First, I must admit I’m concerned about the outside starting post; yet I like it that this lightly-raced gelding has the services of Luis Saez. I also like it that he’s dropping 2+ levels, albeit his last race was on the turf. This gelding’s trainer, Angel Rodriguez, does well with horses dropping two levels, albeit with a limited sampling. If Saez can get this gelding into position without too much exertion, I believe he’s “a player”.
AMERICAN CZAR recently won out lifetime conditions. He fits at this level. Ismael Jaramillo is in the irons for the most capable trainer, Vic Barboza.
POWERLINE will be out and going when the gates unlatch and the bell sounds. He’ll be playing: Catch-me-if-you-can. This is all about rationing out speed and endurance. The last time, this Bluegrass Cat-bred gelding was leading by a Miami city-block at the top of the stretch only to barely hang out at the wire. It’ll be up to “the Bug,” Alvaro Donis, to parcel out this gelding’s speed. Allen Iwinski trains.

Race Eleven:

AMERICAN HALO. There is no one I want more in the saddle when the money’s on the line than the veteran Venezuelan jockey, Javier Castellano. Javy is an outstanding rater of horses. He times his moves, perfectly. Rarely, does he make a mistake on the racetrack. If I were to pick one horse (I’m picking three) Javy’s the one I want aboard. Mark Casse trains. Back on the turf after two races taken off the turf could be the prescription for a trip to the winner’s circle.
MICHELLE’z LAUGH was closing against slightly better in her last. She’ll be closing in deep stretch. Irad in the irons for Marcus Vitali. This filly cannot be ignored.
BAYLOR has faced better. I believe he must come under consideration. Edgard Zayas is in the irons for Stanley Gold. This filly must overcome that outside starting post. I believe, with proper handling, she can.
__________________
Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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