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Old 05-16-2018, 07:01 PM   #151
formula_2002
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race 
1

Post 
7:00

MTP 
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,561"	 	
pgno	yellow BET SIZE	blue BET SIZE
1	----	$11
2	$100	----
3	----	$57
4	----	$21
5	----	$11
6	----	----
7	----	----
8	----	----
9	----	----
10	----	----
11	----	----
12	----	----
13	----	----
14	----	----
15	----	----
16	----	----
	100.00	100.00


pgno	box BET SIZE	BET SIZE
1	$35	 
2	----	 
3	----	 
4	$65	 
5	----	 
6	----	 
7	----	 
8	----	 
9	----	 
10	----	 
11	----	 
12	----	 
13	----	 
14	----	 
15	----	 
16	----	 
	100.00
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Old 05-17-2018, 12:38 AM   #152
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CALCULATING THE FAIR EXACTA PAYOUT.
THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .


THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18

THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18

TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"

TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"

EXACTA PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:


A X (B/(1-A))

EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%


A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282


B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212





PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,


.282/(.212/(1-.282)) = .083


THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04


THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04
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Old 05-18-2018, 11:39 AM   #153
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Race 
5

Post 
11:35

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,209"	
pgno	bet size
1	95
2	67
3	83
4	66
5	44
6	146
7	53
8	102
9	0
10	87
11	87
12	73
13	97
14	0
15	0
16	0
	1000.00
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Old 05-18-2018, 11:49 AM   #154
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tote board indicates an 11/6 $1exacta payout of $351. that would mean a $1 normalized exacta return of $56.00 compared to a $1 win bet return of only $9. we will see if that holds up or if someone made an adjustment to the betting
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Old 05-18-2018, 11:54 AM   #155
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yea

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Old 05-20-2018, 07:54 PM   #156
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Code:
"Santa Anita Park
Race 
9

Post 
7:54

MTP 
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$168,829"	
pgno	11
1	0
2	0
3	302
4	0
5	0
6	0
7	0
8	0
9	298
10	0
11	400
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0
	1000.00
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:40 PM   #157
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Code:
"Los Alamitos QH
Race 
1

Post 
8:40

MTP 
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,540"	
pgno	1
1	358
2	0
3	0
4	313
5	0
6	0
7	330
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0
	1000.00
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Old 05-24-2018, 07:45 PM   #158
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Code:
Code:
"Evangeline Downs
Race 
3

Post 
7:45

MTP 
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,845"	
pgno	bet size
1	177
2	0
3	66
4	218
5	118
6	117
7	305
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0
	1000.00
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