2019 Male 3-year-old-champ

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I don’t think the division is a total loss. If these horses can stay healthy, that is. Max Security has lost one race and Code is on a run. Clearly, the strongest pair right now. Improbable still has issues, that hasn’t changed since spring. He’s a bonafide head case.

The other thing is that was an awful race yesterday. Close to a 50 half and the top two can’t hold on vs a 30-1! WOW appeared to be fighting the rider from the start. Which makes one wonder if the riders are partly to blame in this race . Did they over do it and choke those two into submission? No one wants the lead ? Kind of a very weird race. You got people voting for Mr. Money, Tacitus and WOW........ wow! Lol

When you take a group of speed/front running pressing types and make it into a turf race instead of a horse going wire to wire the opposite can happen, it becomes a matter of who can accelerate the quickest over 1.5-2 furlongs. Closers are often asked to do this, and some do this very well, while the speedy types can do it sometimes its just not in their nature, they win races by making closer tired by chasing them in faster than fractions they are comfortable with.

IMO this is exactly what happened yesterday.

To put it more simply, would you rather have a 5 length lead on Zenyatta at the quarter pole in a moderate-fast pace or a 1 length lead all bunched up in a slow pace?

You want the lead, trust me.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

What if Omaha beach comes back and wins his start at Churchill and then wins the BC Classic, would that vault him past the usual suspects?

I don't know.

He'd at least get some votes and have a case...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

To put it more simply, would you rather have a 5 length lead on Zenyatta at the quarter pole in a moderate-fast pace or a 1 length lead all bunched up in a slow pace?

You want the lead, trust me.

It wouldn't matter in that case.

[classhandicapper]

I've been skeptical of Maximum Security's ultimate upside, but you can't know unless they run. He hasn't done anything wrong, but you have to run to show that you are still developing into a top horse.

IMO, Tacitus and Code of Honor will continue moving forward and Omaha Beach will be back soon even if he's not a major player this year because the clock ran out. The Baffert horses just haven't jumped forward this year like many of his past 3yos have.

[Robert Fischer]

Maximum Security was good.

I doubted him initially. I thought he was reliant on capitalizing on controlling slow paced routes, but he can run into a hot pace as well.

Weird comparison, but some similarities to American Pharoah.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Maximum Security was good.

Weird comparison, but some similarities to American Pharoah.

“I bet on American Pharoah. I could trust American Pharoah. American Pharoah was a favorite horse of mine. Maximum Security, you’re no American Pharoah.”

[dilanesp]

Anyone still love Tacitus now?

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Anyone still love Tacitus now?

I picked COH, looks like a cinch now.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

I picked COH, looks like a cinch now.

Agree. I actually hope he wins the BCC. He seems like one of the few horses out there who has a real upside in terms of becoming a star.

[classhandicapper]

It's not over yet.

Maximum Security IS coming back this year. He just can't make the Classic. It sounds like the Bold Ruler (prep) to the Cigar Mile is the plan. If he can pull off that double and COH doesn't run well in the Classic, it's still a horse race.

MS will have 3 grade 1s with the Cigar (1 against older) and have gotten DQ'd out of the biggest race for 3yos where most people think he was best.

I'm not sure how much I like his chances to win the Cigar Mile unless he moves forward or the field doesn't come up too strong, but they seem willing to go for it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Anyone still love Tacitus now?

IMO, this last race was easily the worst race he's run recently.

It's not so much that he got beat, but he had a pretty good setup and got a good ride but didn't even finish very well, let alone win. If you get outrun you get outrun, but at least finish well with a decent setup.

In his other races he clearly raced against biases, the race flow, had trouble etc... You can debate whether he was best in some of those races or not, but he ran well. IMO, in this last race he was not very good.

After the Travers I posted that they would probably take the blinkers off. They chose not to. Maybe they should reconsider.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's not over yet.

Maximum Security IS coming back this year. He just can't make the Classic. It sounds like the Bold Ruler (prep) to the Cigar Mile is the plan. If he can pull off that double and COH doesn't run well in the Classic, it's still a horse race.

MS will have 3 grade 1s with the Cigar (1 against older) and have gotten DQ'd out of the biggest race for 3yos where most people think he was best.

I'm not sure how much I like his chances to win the Cigar Mile unless he moves forward or the field doesn't come up too strong, but they seem willing to go for it.

MS went from 2-1 when this poll started to something like 15-1 today, IMO.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Redboard

MS went from 2-1 when this poll started to something like 15-1 today, IMO.

Yeah, he's gone from Maximum Security to somewhere between Prison Camp and House Arrest.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Redboard

MS went from 2-1 when this poll started to something like 15-1 today, IMO.

Poll posted waaaaay to early.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Tom

Poll posted waaaaay to early.

I do like my chances, besides, if the poll were posted today, it wouldn't be very difficult.