 |
|
07-29-2011, 12:39 PM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: denton. tx
Posts: 2,966
|
Betting favorites
Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.
Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?
I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!
There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.
__________________
david stewart
Last edited by dav4463; 07-29-2011 at 12:41 PM.
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 05:35 PM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 71
|
Hey David!
From MY experience...
At the Major tracks ML favorites win about 29% - 32% of the time. NY & CA Pick 6 races are pretty close to 30%.
At the second level of tracks - over all races - roughly 35% at best (when I tracked them a few years ago).
At smaller tracks & fairs - over 35% can and does happen. 40% = maybe for a short duration.
I think most from this forum will agree... it's really, really tough to grind out winnings from betting favorites. Even a short three day losing streak will set you way back.
That's a broad answer - not having run 50 tracks results through a computer.
Good Luck!
sk
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 05:46 PM
|
#3
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Denver, CO.
Posts: 217
|
David, I think you are right. The last I saw it was running more like 35% for post time favorites. I'm running something else on my database right now, otherwise I'd check. I'm sure someone will be along shortly to confirm it has been higher than 33% over the last year.
PS. Loved your book Steven.
Last edited by Helles; 07-29-2011 at 05:50 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 06:58 PM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
|
Code:
year fav pct
2003 35.83%
2004 35.57%
2005 35.85%
2006 36.11%
2007 36.15%
2008 36.52%
2009 37.05%
2010 37.61%
2011 37.39%
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 07:33 PM
|
#5
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dav4463
Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.
Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?
I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!
There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.
|
trying to remember the "action" pick 3 using favorites method...
I think it was
- ML FAV
- dominant Trainer or Jock (pick the biggest "edge". This tends to pick one of the FAVS)
- PICK MOST LIKELY WINNER (that you think is most likely to win / highest estimated win%)
- This method gives up to 3 horses in each race, but if the same horse meets more than 1 qualification, they OVERLAP & you end up using LESS horses (example: if all 3 same horse then you have a "single"...)
- bet lowest denomination - Not a high ROI but it offers a quick "fun" "action" use of favs
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 08:07 PM
|
#6
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 196
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dav4463
Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.
Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?
I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!
There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.
|
Only betting favorites would be a tough way to stay in the black. A big problem with the stats on favorites has to do with the final betting pool. Many times there are 2 or more horses close in the pool but of course at the end only one can be determined as the favorite. That is not always easy to tell in advance.
In other words looking at past results, and trying to formulate a betting strategy based on favorites will be misleading at best.
__________________
Brain farts: A part of everyday life
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 08:10 PM
|
#7
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
|
think any serious study you did of this you have to break this up utnil different tiers of tracks. Charles town does not operate like keeneland and you can't put the numbers in there just like it's the same thing.
|
|
|
|
|
07-29-2011, 09:11 PM
|
#8
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,302
|
Here's what I have in my current database (spanning a little over the past year) for post time favorites:
First, All track codes:
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKODDS=1
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 95955.90 100791.80 101829.80
Bet -113452.00-113452.00-113452.00
Gain -17496.10 -12660.20 -11622.20
Wins 20928 32766 39781
Plays 56726 56726 56726
PCT .3689 .5776 .7013
ROI 0.8458 0.8884 0.8976
Avg Mut 4.59 3.08 2.56
Next, post time favorites broken out by track code:
Code:
****************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code Run Date: 7/29/2011 5:53:05 PM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
ABT 6 2 0.3333 0.9034 0.6917 3 0.5 0.7
ALB 316 135 0.4272 1.1579 0.9019 184 0.5823 0.9006
APX 1001 348 0.3477 0.9425 0.8486 545 0.5445 0.8782
AQU 989 416 0.4206 1.14 0.9272 601 0.6077 0.8898
ARP 316 124 0.3924 1.0636 0.8709 189 0.5981 0.9538
ASD 588 193 0.3282 0.8896 0.762 335 0.5697 0.8966
ATL 40 10 0.25 0.6776 0.61 15 0.375 0.6375
ATO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BCF 28 14 0.5 1.3553 1.0786 19 0.6786 1.0536
BEL 1032 381 0.3692 1.0007 0.8635 602 0.5833 0.8869
BEU 983 353 0.3591 0.9734 0.7884 588 0.5982 0.8843
BKF 5 3 0.6 1.6263 1.02 4 0.8 1.04
BOI 44 18 0.4091 1.1089 0.9636 24 0.5455 0.8455
CAS 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CBY 507 206 0.4063 1.1013 0.9224 328 0.6469 0.9536
CDX 701 231 0.3295 0.8931 0.8374 376 0.5364 0.8586
CLS 214 72 0.3364 0.9118 0.8308 116 0.5421 0.8787
CNL 463 171 0.3693 1.001 0.8368 262 0.5659 0.8684
CPW 54 17 0.3148 0.8533 0.6833 30 0.5556 0.8583
CRC 1775 686 0.3865 1.0476 0.8812 1064 0.5994 0.8959
CTX 2346 851 0.3627 0.9831 0.7922 1332 0.5678 0.8625
DED 900 306 0.34 0.9216 0.8286 489 0.5433 0.8892
DEL 1191 476 0.3997 1.0834 0.8728 722 0.6062 0.8983
DMR 382 129 0.3377 0.9153 0.8712 200 0.5236 0.8779
ELK 27 10 0.3704 1.004 0.8148 16 0.5926 0.8278
ELP 376 133 0.3537 0.9587 0.9141 218 0.5798 0.9552
EMD 882 329 0.373 1.011 0.8265 522 0.5918 0.8799
EMT 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.3667
EVD 1134 384 0.3386 0.9178 0.8412 617 0.5441 0.8886
FER 46 20 0.4348 1.1785 0.9196 27 0.587 0.8283
FEX 779 275 0.353 0.9568 0.8476 431 0.5533 0.8861
FGX 867 316 0.3645 0.988 0.846 486 0.5606 0.8458
FLG 23 10 0.4348 1.1785 1.0174 15 0.6522 1.0087
FLX 1739 697 0.4008 1.0864 0.8389 1089 0.6262 0.9018
FMT 253 78 0.3083 0.8357 0.6921 133 0.5257 0.8002
FNO 70 27 0.3857 1.0455 0.82 43 0.6143 0.8593
FON 293 106 0.3618 0.9807 0.9198 160 0.5461 0.9423
FPK 585 195 0.3333 0.9034 0.8017 310 0.5299 0.8912
FPX 161 72 0.4472 1.2121 0.864 104 0.646 0.8463
FTP 24 7 0.2917 0.7907 0.625 16 0.6667 1.1354
GFX 36 11 0.3056 0.8283 0.7444 20 0.5556 0.8778
GGX 1473 564 0.3829 1.0379 0.8423 890 0.6042 0.8827
GIL 44 14 0.3182 0.8625 0.9545 18 0.4091 0.8045
GPR 135 49 0.363 0.9839 0.8848 78 0.5778 0.9948
GPX 811 269 0.3317 0.8991 0.8348 443 0.5462 0.8866
GRP 113 48 0.4248 1.1514 0.9088 81 0.7168 1.0801
HAW 839 291 0.3468 0.94 0.8292 473 0.5638 0.9018
HOL 1051 402 0.3825 1.0368 0.8997 622 0.5918 0.8892
HOO 635 235 0.3701 1.0032 0.8608 355 0.5591 0.8654
HOU 261 98 0.3755 1.0178 0.8073 148 0.567 0.8412
HPO 39 17 0.4359 1.1815 1.0641 23 0.5897 1.0641
HST 715 263 0.3678 0.9969 0.8555 413 0.5776 0.8699
IND 716 263 0.3673 0.9956 0.8305 431 0.602 0.9189
JRM 2 2 1 2.7105 1.7 2 1 1.225
KDX 33 15 0.4545 1.2319 1.2061 22 0.6667 1.1909
KEE 310 113 0.3645 0.988 0.9903 156 0.5032 0.8705
KIN 16 2 0.125 0.3388 0.3531 5 0.3125 0.5625
KSP 9 4 0.4444 1.2046 0.9556 7 0.7778 1.2333
LAD 946 329 0.3478 0.9427 0.8252 522 0.5518 0.8662
LAX 509 186 0.3654 0.9904 0.7601 296 0.5815 0.8539
LBG 160 47 0.2938 0.7964 0.7306 86 0.5375 0.9728
LNN 392 140 0.3571 0.9679 0.8945 217 0.5536 0.9301
LRL 1103 467 0.4234 1.1476 0.9493 679 0.6156 0.9028
LSX 614 247 0.4023 1.0904 0.8915 387 0.6303 0.9385
MCX 3 0 0 0 0 2 0.6667 1.1
MDX 297 86 0.2896 0.785 0.7401 146 0.4916 0.8493
MIL 8 1 0.125 0.3388 0.4063 5 0.625 1.025
MNR 2243 851 0.3794 1.0284 0.8222 1319 0.5881 0.8903
MPM 15 7 0.4667 1.265 1.0067 12 0.8 1.32
MTH 1048 393 0.375 1.0164 0.9085 613 0.5849 0.9221
NPX 869 302 0.3475 0.9419 0.8754 486 0.5593 0.941
ONE 3 1 0.3333 0.9034 0.5667 2 0.6667 0.7
OPX 517 159 0.3075 0.8335 0.8044 249 0.4816 0.8418
PEN 1909 741 0.3882 1.0522 0.9048 1070 0.5605 0.8697
PHA 2098 805 0.3837 1.04 0.8696 1246 0.5939 0.8982
PID 954 329 0.3449 0.9349 0.8172 539 0.565 0.8804
PIM 315 123 0.3905 1.0585 0.8825 196 0.6222 0.9267
PLN 179 61 0.3408 0.9237 0.7453 106 0.5922 0.8804
PMX 576 243 0.4219 1.1436 0.8844 349 0.6059 0.8601
PNL 346 118 0.341 0.9243 0.7876 180 0.5202 0.921
POD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRM 810 321 0.3963 1.0742 0.8578 479 0.5914 0.8948
PRV 26 9 0.3462 0.9384 0.8154 13 0.5 0.8269
RDX 806 349 0.433 1.1737 0.8762 534 0.6625 0.9321
RET 151 42 0.2781 0.7538 0.698 78 0.5166 0.8947
RIL 56 14 0.25 0.6776 0.6036 30 0.5357 0.9411
RPX 663 226 0.3409 0.924 0.8094 374 0.5641 0.914
RUI 349 136 0.3897 1.0563 0.8633 210 0.6017 0.9021
RUP 7 3 0.4286 1.1617 0.8286 5 0.7143 0.7786
SAC 129 40 0.3101 0.8405 0.6915 78 0.6047 0.8915
SAR 450 146 0.3244 0.8793 0.8236 235 0.5222 0.8541
SAX 625 228 0.3648 0.9888 0.8529 357 0.5712 0.8783
SDY 40 13 0.325 0.8809 0.565 25 0.625 0.9425
SND 7 1 0.1429 0.3873 0.3071 2 0.2857 0.3643
SON 8 6 0.75 2.0329 1.75 6 0.75 1.2375
SRP 333 115 0.3453 0.9359 0.8063 188 0.5646 0.8824
SRX 122 47 0.3852 1.0441 0.9369 74 0.6066 0.9537
STK 26 10 0.3846 1.0425 0.85 15 0.5769 0.8481
SUD 30 11 0.3667 0.994 0.8767 19 0.6333 1.0633
SUF 977 401 0.4104 1.1124 0.8654 614 0.6285 0.8921
SUN 540 186 0.3444 0.9335 0.7966 276 0.5111 0.8131
TAM 955 332 0.3476 0.9422 0.8418 533 0.5581 0.9155
TDN 1108 487 0.4395 1.1913 0.894 718 0.648 0.8939
TIL 31 12 0.3871 1.0492 0.9161 20 0.6452 1.0871
TIM 67 30 0.4478 1.2138 0.8791 43 0.6418 0.9455
TPX 861 287 0.3333 0.9034 0.861 466 0.5412 0.9023
TUP 1327 473 0.3564 0.966 0.7696 778 0.5863 0.8475
UNX 13 7 0.5385 1.4596 0.9462 10 0.7692 0.9769
WOX 1779 560 0.3148 0.8533 0.7852 930 0.5228 0.8528
WRD 329 118 0.3587 0.9723 0.8368 177 0.538 0.8356
WWX 14 4 0.2857 0.7744 0.5714 8 0.5714 0.9214
YAV 239 93 0.3891 1.0547 0.8176 140 0.5858 0.8437
YDX 41 14 0.3415 0.9256 0.8829 27 0.6585 1.0195
ZIA 319 110 0.3448 0.9346 0.7624 194 0.6082 0.9154
****************************************************************************************
114 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 07-29-2011 at 09:16 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 03:11 AM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,695
|
progression systems can not turn a losing ROI into a winning one
they can prolong how long it takes to go busto bad
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 06:41 AM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 249
|
So Damn Difficult
That's the dillemma . Do we lose everything waiting for Longshots or get a high percentage of our Bankroll back betting and winning on Favorites ? . My choice is the Favorites. They frickin lose a lot. But remember if you can work and work and study and study. It is possible to put down 40 Win Plays a month and win 20 of them at a 5 dollar average. Many are doing it.It might be 28 people across the Country. But 28 are doing it. Also take the 6 to 5's and win more than half, another way. Frickin difficult, so many 6 to 5's lose. But if there are 40 - 6 to 5 win plays that you play a month on 3 different race tracks. And I mean strong 6 to 5's. These horses meet all of the elimination rules, they are strong . If you can win 25 of them at a 4 dollar 20 cent average . That's 25 dollars. 200 dollars to win, that's 2500 dollars a month . Forget progression. I tried that. I waited 2 weeks for the strongest 6 to 5. that there was. There he was. Put 260 dollars to win and guess what. The S.O.B lost. Win more than half 6 to 5's. It's not easy.
__________________
Winners Are Losers Who Got Up And Gave It One More Try.
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 07:56 AM
|
#11
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
|
40 win plays a month? lol hell that was yesterday
I can honestly say, and this is just me, the more I play, the more i generally could care less what the tote board says outside of rather it's value or not. I don't judge if i could consider a horse based off how much play he is or is not getting. I have no qualms in the least bit about playing a 30-40 to 1 shot if i like him. And yes I lose often, but i hit a few too. I hit a 32 to 1 shot last year that made my entire hollywood park meet.
I think that might be the hardest thing for a young handicapper to do, to not be swayed by the public. We've all been there. played a horse that you should not have becuase everyone else has played him, or tossed a horse that you liked becuase he was "cold on the board". I make my selections on my handicapping and my handicapping alone. Then I look at the tote to see if it's a viable play or not
Last edited by toussaud; 07-30-2011 at 08:06 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 08:12 AM
|
#12
|
|
Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jamey1977
That's the dillemma . Do we lose everything waiting for Longshots or get a high percentage of our Bankroll back betting and winning on Favorites ? . My choice is the Favorites. They frickin lose a lot. But remember if you can work and work and study and study. It is possible to put down 40 Win Plays a month and win 20 of them at a 5 dollar average. Many are doing it.It might be 28 people across the Country. But 28 are doing it. Also take the 6 to 5's and win more than half, another way. Frickin difficult, so many 6 to 5's lose. But if there are 40 - 6 to 5 win plays that you play a month on 3 different race tracks. And I mean strong 6 to 5's. These horses meet all of the elimination rules, they are strong . If you can win 25 of them at a 4 dollar 20 cent average . That's 25 dollars. 200 dollars to win, that's 2500 dollars a month . Forget progression. I tried that. I waited 2 weeks for the strongest 6 to 5. that there was. There he was. Put 260 dollars to win and guess what. The S.O.B lost. Win more than half 6 to 5's. It's not easy.
|
I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 08:17 AM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.
|
i tend to agree with this. mainly becuase of the philosophy behind the reasoning. you can't be timid and at the same time actually turn a profit/be a successful handicapper. As simplistic as it sounds, to make money, you actually have to make wagers.
It actually took me quite a while to figure that out.
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 08:42 AM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Donald Sullivan had a system where one would eliminate the false favorite. Basically, you would look at a few factors like days since last raced, and speed, etc. Your top selection would be a bona fide good to bet horse if it became the favorite, else you would skip the race. I missed place my book. But I remember it to be a fun system with lots of action. If memory serves me right, it played about half the races.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
07-30-2011, 04:40 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 249
|
Since 1994
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.
|
I thought about this in 1994. Take the Even Money - 6 to 5's and 4 to 5's. Handicap and work. I mean, work. Win more than half there's your profit. It can be done. Damn hard, so many elimination rules. These horses put the ose in lose. But I am sure there has to be competent handicappers who can win half at 4.60. My theory is win more than half. Say 30 6 to 5's even,4 to 5's- No 3 to 5's or lower , win 19, There's the profit. 16 dollars but the bets could be 400 to win. - 3200 net profit a month. Will not risk tapping out. 15 thousand bankroll would never be threatened. Someone has to be doing this. I am starting. But this is as hard as hell. It takes work.
__________________
Winners Are Losers Who Got Up And Gave It One More Try.
Last edited by jamey1977; 07-30-2011 at 04:42 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
