Quirin speed-point advantages - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

markgoldie · 07-06-2009, 12:36 PM

Hello members. Hopefully we're all counting up our profits from the holiday weekend when some of the money floating in the pools is less informed than normal. Back to the grind of a Monday card where all the money knows what it is doing.

At any rate, I was wondering if anybody has statistics on Quirin speed-point advantages, that is, ROI of horses with a 2-point, 3-point, 4-point, or more advantage over the remainder of the field. It would also seem more illuminating if the study were restricted to races in which the impact value of speed is the greatest. For example, the Brisnet track bias stats show the impact of speed on winning percentages. Thus, the study could reasonably be restricted to races in which Brisnet says that E runners have the highest IV (impact value) at the distance. Steve Klein also sells track speed-bias statistics, but he restricts his reports to a handful of tracks. His stats are good, but as I say, limited.

I'd also be interested in hearing if anyone out there is regularly working with pace figs, and if so, how you compare them to Quirin speed points. Are they more accurate in your opinion?? Most experts say they are not, but I am yet to read about a study which shows this to be true. I guess I should back up here and say that we are talking about the horse who has the best chance to establish a clear lead in a race at the pace call (sometimes referred to as "2p" or "E2"). We know through extensive published statistics from Klein that these horses routinely enjoy a positive ROI of over 100% in American dirt racing (this may extend to synth although I'm not sure).

All comments are welcome, even if, as they say, they are anecdotal.

Mark

matthewsiv · 07-06-2009, 01:18 PM

Who is Steve Klein?

Which figures does he produce?

markgoldie · 07-06-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by matthewsiv

Who is Steve Klein?

Which figures does he produce?

Klein is a noted handicapping author. He has a web site at power of early speed.com which produces early-speed figures and track speed-bias statistics at about 6 North American tracks. He is associated with DRF and his major work on the subject is appropriately named "The Power of Early Speed."

Mark

matthewsiv · 07-06-2009, 02:06 PM

Thanks for the information.

MNslappy · 07-06-2009, 02:19 PM

lots of good stuff here!

http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm

fmolf · 07-06-2009, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Klein is a noted handicapping author. He has a web site at power of early speed.com which produces early-speed figures and track speed-bias statistics at about 6 North American tracks. He is associated with DRF and his major work on the subject is appropriately named "The Power of Early Speed."

Mark

I have his book and i was not impressed with it.His method takes into account field size,post position and early speed.His methods sometimes uncover a diamond in the rough but calculating every horses klein speed points is tiring and cumbersome.I have found that often times horses that show high speed in his system do not outrun others with more quirin speed points.I gave up using his method as i did not note any significant difference in selecting the early speed horse.The equation is complicated with about 8 steps.I do not use it any longer.I have found bris pace numbers to be just as effective in conjunction with their speed point calculations

markgoldie · 07-06-2009, 03:44 PM

MNslappy:

Thanks for the info. I believe I read that PDF file before. The breakout of advantage figures that they use is very general, only looking at horses that have 7 or 8 Quirin points in a field where no one else has more than 5. In many cases, this could lead to only a 2-point advantage, for example, if the qualifying horse had 7 points and another horse had 5. What I was more interested in is say, a breakout where a horse had a 5-point advantage over the field, followed by a 4-point advantage, 3-point, etc.

fmolf: I have the Klein book as well and I do not bother to run his figures. However, I will say this: If you look at how he sets up his speed point scale and how the Quirin scale is set up, Klein has definitely made some advancements. Since Quirin points are currently considered the "Gold Standard" in t-bred racing, it makes some sense that Klein's points should be more accurate.

I subscribe to his website where he says that he has made some improvements to his general method since the publication of the book. I have used his numbers (not bothering to calculate them on my own, which as you say is time-consuming and difficult) and I have found his numbers to be highly accurate. Currently, though, I am not using pace advantage as my major means of handicapping, but I was wondering if anyone had info on points vs. pace figs, etc.

Mark

Partsnut · 07-06-2009, 03:53 PM

markgoldie:

Quote:

I'd also be interested in hearing if anyone out there is regularly working with pace figs, and if so, how you compare them to Quirin speed points. Are they more accurate in your opinion??

In my opinion: Randy Giles who puts out PaceAppraiser would be the consumate expert on this topic. Speed points and running style, if they are accurately formulated, are the best race projectors you can use.
You might want to visit his site at: www.PaceAppraiser.com. and write him.
He's also on Twitter.

I have had nothing but excellent experiences with his product.

P.S. - I am not related to Randy and have no financial interests in his products.

Jeff P · 07-06-2009, 04:09 PM

I find that pace figs generally outperform speed points roi-wise. Here's what I have in my Q2 2008 database for dirt races at Monmouth which some might argue is generally a speed favoring surface:

First, just to get some perspective, here are all starters that I have for dirt races at MTH in Q2 2009:

Code:

     query start:         7/6/2009 12:53:20 PM
     query end:           7/6/2009 12:53:58 PM
     elapsed time:        38 seconds

     Data Window Settings:
     Divisor = 999      Odds Cap: None
     Dirt (All*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2009\Q2_2009\pL_profile.txt)
     Track: MTH 

     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals    2434.90   2478.40   2253.10
     Bet             -3360.00  -3360.00  -3360.00
     Gain             -925.10   -881.60  -1106.90

     Wins                 245       485       642
     Plays               1680      1680      1680
     PCT                .1458     .2887     .3821

     ROI               0.7247    0.7376    0.6706
     Avg Mut             9.94      5.11      3.51

Next, here is the data broken out by a very simple pace fig evaluation - Bris E2 (Best of Last 10) or simply Best E2:

Code:

     By: Best E2 Rank

     Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
        1      -6.90    620.00    0.9889     75    310   .2419     1.6590  
        2    -109.80    504.00    0.7821     50    252   .1984     1.3605  
        3    -220.00    436.00    0.4954     25    218   .1147     0.7864  
        4     -99.00    486.00    0.7963     36    243   .1481     1.0159  
        5      16.20    450.00    1.0360     36    225   .1600     1.0971  
        6    -252.60    346.00    0.2699      9    173   .0520     0.3567  
        7    -130.40    258.00    0.4946      7    129   .0543     0.3721  
        8     -79.00    148.00    0.4662      4     74   .0541     0.3707  
        9     -58.80     66.00    0.1091      1     33   .0303     0.2078  
       10      25.20     32.00    1.7875      1     16   .0625     0.4286  
       11      -8.00     12.00    0.3333      1      6   .1667     1.1429  
       12      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000

Code:

     By: Best E2 Gap

     >=Min      < Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
   -999.00     -10.00   -598.40   1530.00    0.6089     71    765   .0928   0.6364
    -10.00      -9.00     43.80    146.00    1.3000     17     73   .2329   1.5969
     -9.00      -8.00    -26.20    154.00    0.8299     11     77   .1429   0.9796
     -8.00      -7.00     15.00    114.00    1.1316      8     57   .1404   0.9624
     -7.00      -6.00    -94.20    142.00    0.3366      7     71   .0986   0.6761
     -6.00      -5.00    -33.00    118.00    0.7203      9     59   .1525   1.0460
     -5.00      -4.00    -52.40    138.00    0.6203     13     69   .1884   1.2919
     -4.00      -3.00    -59.00    106.00    0.4434      8     53   .1509   1.0350
     -3.00      -2.00    -48.20    126.00    0.6175     10     63   .1587   1.0884
     -2.00      -1.00    -31.60     88.00    0.6409      8     44   .1818   1.2468
     -1.00       0.00    -34.00     78.00    0.5641      8     39   .2051   1.4066
      0.00       1.00    -40.40    190.00    0.7874     22     95   .2316   1.5880
      1.00       2.00    -27.80     68.00    0.5912      8     34   .2353   1.6134
      2.00       3.00     73.80     56.00    2.3179      6     28   .2143   1.4694
      3.00       4.00     -1.40     68.00    0.9794      5     34   .1471   1.0084
      4.00       5.00     -8.00     54.00    0.8519      9     27   .3333   2.2857
      5.00       6.00     21.80     48.00    1.4542      8     24   .3333   2.2857
      6.00       7.00    -15.80     30.00    0.4733      3     15   .2000   1.3714
      7.00       8.00      6.70     20.00    1.3350      5     10   .5000   3.4286
      8.00  999999.00    -15.80     86.00    0.8163      9     43   .2093   1.4352

Code:

     By: Best E2 Num

     >=Min      < Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
      -999         30   -134.20    302.00    0.5556     18    151   .1192   0.8174
        30         35      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
        35         40      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
        40         45      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
        45         50     11.20      2.00    6.6000      1      1  1.0000   6.8571
        50         55     -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000   0.0000
        55         60     41.20     16.00    3.5750      1      8   .1250   0.8571
        60         65      6.20     24.00    1.2583      1     12   .0833   0.5714
        65         70    -37.80     72.00    0.4750      3     36   .0833   0.5714
        70         75   -112.20    152.00    0.2618      5     76   .0658   0.4511
        75         80   -120.60    208.00    0.4202      8    104   .0769   0.5275
        80         85    -97.60    418.00    0.7665     19    209   .0909   0.6234
        85         90   -142.00    496.00    0.7137     36    248   .1452   0.9954
        90         95   -217.80    580.00    0.6245     45    290   .1552   1.0640
        95        100    -38.00    482.00    0.9212     43    241   .1784   1.2235
       100        105    -65.20    350.00    0.8137     37    175   .2114   1.4498
       105        110    -21.90    186.00    0.8823     20     93   .2151   1.4747
       110        115     19.60     56.00    1.3500      8     28   .2857   1.9592
       115        120    -12.00     12.00    0.0000      0      6   .0000   0.0000
       120     999999      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000

And here is the same data broken out by Bris Q Speed Points:

Code:

     By: Q Speed Points Rank

     Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
        1    -171.40    668.00    0.7434     67    334   .2006     1.3755  
        2     -85.30    540.00    0.8420     54    270   .2000     1.3714  
        3    -138.60    592.00    0.7659     44    296   .1486     1.0193  
        4    -148.60    454.00    0.6727     28    227   .1233     0.8458  
        5     -69.40    480.00    0.8554     30    240   .1250     0.8571  
        6    -180.40    330.00    0.4533     12    165   .0727     0.4987  
        7     -76.60    198.00    0.6131      5     99   .0505     0.3463  
        8     -18.80     52.00    0.6385      3     26   .1154     0.7912  
        9     -26.00     36.00    0.2778      2     18   .1111     0.7619  
       10      -6.00      6.00    0.0000      0      3   .0000     0.0000  
       11      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
       12      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000

Code:

     By: Q Speed Points Gap

      >=Min      < Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact
       -999         -8      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
         -8         -7    -97.00    174.00    0.4425      8     87   .0920   0.6305
         -7         -6    -75.80    164.00    0.5378      8     82   .0976   0.6690
         -6         -5   -259.00    410.00    0.3683     17    205   .0829   0.5686
         -5         -4    -50.80    402.00    0.8736     23    201   .1144   0.7846
         -4         -3     41.40    432.00    1.0958     28    216   .1296   0.8889
         -3         -2   -108.20    424.00    0.7448     32    212   .1509   1.0350
         -2         -1   -108.40    380.00    0.7147     30    190   .1579   1.0827
         -1          0    -95.90    306.00    0.6866     32    153   .2092   1.4342
          0          1    -52.00    320.00    0.8375     29    160   .1813   1.2429
          1          2    -72.80    166.00    0.5614     16     83   .1928   1.3219
          2          3    -44.60    106.00    0.5792     11     53   .2075   1.4232
          3          4      7.80     40.00    1.1950      6     20   .3000   2.0571
          4          5     -5.00     26.00    0.8077      4     13   .3077   2.1099
          5          6     -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000   0.0000
          6          7     -0.80      6.00    0.8667      1      3   .3333   2.2857
          7          8      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
          8          9      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
          9         10      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000
         10     999999      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000   0.0000

Code:

     By: Q Speed Points Number

     Q SpdPts       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
            0    -336.80    872.00    0.6138     40    436   .0917     0.6291  
            1     -67.20    260.00    0.7415     18    130   .1385     0.9495  
            2     -68.60    352.00    0.8051     22    176   .1250     0.8571  
            3    -105.20    400.00    0.7370     23    200   .1150     0.7886  
            4     -95.30    356.00    0.7323     32    178   .1798     1.2327  
            5     -83.80    424.00    0.8024     41    212   .1934     1.3261  
            6    -142.60    352.00    0.5949     30    176   .1705     1.1688  
            7     -16.60    180.00    0.9078     20     90   .2222     1.5238  
            8      -9.00    164.00    0.9451     19     82   .2317     1.5889

-jp

.

fmolf · 07-06-2009, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markgoldie

MNslappy:

Thanks for the info. I believe I read that PDF file before. The breakout of advantage figures that they use is very general, only looking at horses that have 7 or 8 Quirin points in a field where no one else has more than 5. In many cases, this could lead to only a 2-point advantage, for example, if the qualifying horse had 7 points and another horse had 5. What I was more interested in is say, a breakout where a horse had a 5-point advantage over the field, followed by a 4-point advantage, 3-point, etc.

fmolf: I have the Klein book as well and I do not bother to run his figures. However, I will say this: If you look at how he sets up his speed point scale and how the Quirin scale is set up, Klein has definitely made some advancements. Since Quirin points are currently considered the "Gold Standard" in t-bred racing, it makes some sense that Klein's points should be more accurate.

I subscribe to his website where he says that he has made some improvements to his general method since the publication of the book. I have used his numbers (not bothering to calculate them on my own, which as you say is time-consuming and difficult) and I have found his numbers to be highly accurate. Currently, though, I am not using pace advantage as my major means of handicapping, but I was wondering if anyone had info on points vs. pace figs, etc.

Mark

His ideas are worthwhile and make sense,regarding field size,lengths ahead. I just think the improvement is not great enough to use his methodology or his numbers.I prefer to look at the bris E1 & E2 numbers to get a feel for who the likely pacesetters will be.What is never taken into consideration is post position and whether a horse has the speed to clear the field from outside posts.This is best done using pace numbers or even raw fractional times.

markgoldie · 07-06-2009, 05:27 PM

Jeff P:

Thanks for the obvious effort you put into that post. I think what it shows more than anything else is that the sample is too small to gather too much in the way of conclusions. Thus, you have proximate rankings which in many cases are drastically different from each other. This, no doubt is due to a high-priced winner or two which occurred in one rank and not in the other.

However, I take your vote seriously that pace figs are the better ROI indicator of a potential race winner. And I note that Partsnut disagrees.

Thanks.

Mark

Speed Figure · 07-06-2009, 05:56 PM

How are most looking at this? early speed points are for 1st call figures right? meaning which horse has the best 1st call early speed. 2f in sprints and 4f in routes. Would it not be better to look at the E1 and not the E2? E2 is the pace figure. Many horses may have low speed points, but in fact be better to the 2nd call while another horse could have high speed points, but fade to the 2nd call.

CBedo · 07-06-2009, 05:57 PM

I thought the Klein book had some interesting statistics. The biggest issue I had with it was that the only statistics he didn't provide were on the figures he made! Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their overall effectiveness or even improvement over the Quirin speed points.

sjk · 07-06-2009, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Jeff P:

Thanks for the obvious effort you put into that post. I think what it shows more than anything else is that the sample is too small to gather too much in the way of conclusions. Thus, you have proximate rankings which in many cases are drastically different from each other. This, no doubt is due to a high-priced winner or two which occurred in one rank and not in the other.

However, I take your vote seriously that pace figs are the better ROI indicator of a potential race winner. And I note that Partsnut disagrees.

Thanks.

Mark

Seems like I posted ROIs for a much larger sample when you were asking about this a month or so ago.

fmolf · 07-06-2009, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBedo

I thought the Klein book had some interesting statistics. The biggest issue I had with it was that the only statistics he didn't provide were on the figures he made! Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their overall effectiveness or even improvement over the Quirin speed points.

i found in my experiment with his method that it pointed out a lot of speed and fade types.Did any one esle find this to be true?