1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread

[cj]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Are the LFs the adjusted final 3/8ths? I'd be interested in seeing Chitu, Firing Line, and Hence's in their respective Sunland Derbies. Trying to get a better read on the top two from there this year.

Yes, they are adjusted. I'll see what I can find on those runners.

[classhandicapper]

I don't follow Oaklawn on a daily basis but I vaguely remember something from the Thorograph board years ago that it produces faster closing times for some reason. Maybe the stretch is very slightly downhill or something.

Does anyone know anything about that?

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't follow Oaklawn on a daily basis but I vaguely remember something from the Thorograph board years ago that it produces faster closing times for some reason. Maybe the stretch is very slightly downhill or something.

Does anyone know anything about that?

That’s correct. Hell if I actually know but that is what they say and I remember it seeming to bear out with some of the Oaklawn horses I followed when they moved to another circuit, completely anecdotal of course.

[señorclipclop]

Not sure how known it is at this point, but it seems like the reason My Boy Jack took so much money is that Netflix had a crew following the Desormeauxes leading up to the Derby for an episode of 7 Days Out.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Parson

I have compiled everything except indicator 3, must achieve 98 or higher beyer at age 3 in a 9F stake race and achieve 3/8 time of 37 4/5 or less or final 1/8 of 12 4/5, and indicator 6, must win at a mile or more at age 2 and also achieve a beyer of 92 or more at age 2. I do not have access to those beyers to complete and will have to wait until DRF releases the PPs. But I show Tax, not that you provided me his beyer number for indicator 6 as having 11 out a possible 22 pts and could earn 2 more indicator 3, for a possible total of 13. However, I do not see him getting those 2 pts because of the final 3/8 and 1/8 in the Wood. Perhaps I miscalculated that???

https://classic.drf.com/derby-watch

Click on the horse's name for the Beyers. Does Caris still publish his findings in ATM?

[Parson]

Thanks Mike, it completes my analysis using Stan's formulas. I show Improbable as top point getter with 20 out of a possible 22 pts

followed by:
Maximum Security 13
Roadster 11
Game Winner 11
Tax 11
Spin Off 11
Omaha Beach 10


I could be wrong but that is the way I have the top 7. Last year, Bolt D'Oro was top point getter followed by Vino Rosso, Hoffburg and Justify. so not exact but still had winner in top 4

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Parson

Thanks Mike, it completes my analysis using Stan's formulas. I show Improbable as top point getter with 20 out of a possible 22 pts

Nice work. The winner has come from the checklist top two more years than not.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Parson

Thanks Mike, it completes my analysis using Stan's formulas. I show Improbable as top point getter with 20 out of a possible 22 pts

followed by:
Maximum Security 13
Roadster 11
Game Winner 11
Tax 11
Spin Off 11
Omaha Beach 10


I could be wrong but that is the way I have the top 7. Last year, Bolt D'Oro was top point getter followed by Vino Rosso, Hoffburg and Justify. so not exact but still had winner in top 4

Bigger question is where does the KY Derby winner come from usually in the formula? Top 3 or what

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Bigger question is where does the KY Derby winner come from usually in the formula? Top 3 or what

Typically, within the top two and has nailed some exactas with the top two. Nailed the exacta in 2010, missed Animal Kingdom in 2011 but had the second place Nehro, nailed the IHA/Bode exacta in 2012, had Orb in 2013, not sure about 2014 but would guess Chrome was there given the speed, Buckpasser, and conduit mare points, had AP in 2015, my calculated version suggests it would have nailed the 2016 Nyquist-Exaggerator exacta, I didn't create one for 2017 however Always Dreaming likely would have been at or near the top given his RAN sire line and fast fractions, and everyone had Justify... although the checklist probably would have had Vino Rosso on top since Justify would have only got points for a big BSF and closing fractions.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Parson

Thanks Mike, it completes my analysis using Stan's formulas. I show Improbable as top point getter with 20 out of a possible 22 pts

followed by:
Maximum Security 13
Roadster 11
Game Winner 11
Tax 11
Spin Off 11
Omaha Beach 10


I could be wrong but that is the way I have the top 7. Last year, Bolt D'Oro was top point getter followed by Vino Rosso, Hoffburg and Justify. so not exact but still had winner in top 4

Thats good to see since I had a hunch about Tax and Spinoff as exotics bombers even before I saw that...

[Parson]

Tornado,

yes, Justify was on top of it all but he was down to 4th because he never raced at 2, and if I remember correctly, no RAN or buckpasser. the order I listed them is the order of the points totals. Bolt had 16/22
Vino 14/22
Hofburg 9/22
Justify 9/22

I refused to put Justify on top because of the Apollo Curse, cost me $$$$ to say the least.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Does anyone have City Zip offspring stats on the dirt going 1 1/4? I assume it's a very limited dataset.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Does anyone have City Zip offspring stats on the dirt going 1 1/4? I assume it's a very limited dataset.

I came up with 28: 4-3-3

Collected, Catch a Glimpse, Dayatthespa, and Gleam Of Hope are your four winners.

A 39% ITM rate at 10F is not too shabby. I think I just convinced myself to not get caught up on the City Zip. Improbable has potent dam side.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I came up with 28: 4-3-3

Collected, Catch a Glimpse, Dayatthespa, and Gleam Of Hope are your four winners.

A 39% ITM rate at 10F is not too shabby. I think I just convinced myself to not get caught up on the City Zip. Improbable has potent dam side.

Great info. Thanks.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I came up with 28: 4-3-3

Collected, Catch a Glimpse, Dayatthespa, and Gleam Of Hope are your four winners.

A 39% ITM rate at 10F is not too shabby. I think I just convinced myself to not get caught up on the City Zip. Improbable has potent dam side.

It looks to me that only Collected won at 10F on the dirt and think only once in the Pacific Classic, the other three did it on the turf. There aren't many chances to win at a mile and a quarter on the dirt anymore too.