2018-19 NBA

[JustRalph]

Playoffs from mid April to mid June.

Gimme a break........

They idolize Harden here in Houston. A little too much .....

[Vinnie]

Fear the Beard! He is a train wreck on the defensive end with that "Matador Defense" he employs every night. Couple that with essentially taking up virtually every second spare a couple on the shot clock on each offensive possession. When interviewed, many legends said that they simply couldn't play with him.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Yahoo Sports | Chris Haynes | April 16, 2019
Sources: Warriors center DeMarcus Cousins expected to miss remainder of postseason:
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-war...134734955.html



--and:



-jp

.

Although GSW stlll in a strong position, this does seem to make things more interesting. A couple of days after I mentioned the discrepancy between the Vegas line and Nate's projections, in this thread, the Vegas line adjusted to Nate's as it sometimes does. And after the Cousins injury, the Vegas line predictably shifted again, so the odds to win the title are now 4-1 and 15/2 on Bucks and Raptors, respectively (down from 10-1 on both last week). But Nate, who had had GSW at 4/5, now has them at 7/5. This leaves ca. 60% worth of probability between (presumably) Bucks and Raptors, although Nate making both 4-1 (w/respect to other possible opponents).

It seems to me that all GSW action hinges on Curry's health -- even if he's not seriously injured, just missing crucial parts of one or two games could still cost them the title. And with the decline of D. Green, on both ends of the court, and a weaker bench, this isn't the same team that dominated the Cavs the past two years. Bogut is a smart and a good passer, but at 35, also a step slower -- I don't think his return is a major factor. Interesting to see how they look the next couple of games, but thinking there could be value here.

[Jeff P]

Imo, there were several times in game 2 when Bogut looked completely gassed/out of breath (compared to the other players) after running up and down the floor at speed. Based on that, I have doubts about the number of quality minutes he can give them.

Imo, KD appears different (so far) in this series than what I'm used to seeing. Haven't seen that many times where he gets the ball in a half court offense and creates his own shot off the dribble and shoots a three. One of three from behind the arc (so far) in this series. Not sure if that's a result of Beverley's defense or if he's being used differently (or both.)

Game 3 tonight in LA. (Should be interesting.)


-jp

.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

For whatever reason, my interest heading into this year's NBA playoffs is the lowest its been in years. Am I the only one?

For betting purposes, capitalize on that.

The NBA needs Giannis to advance. The NBA needs the New England Celtics to advance...

not necessarily tonight or the very next game, but pick your spots and use their business model to your advantage.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, there were several times in game 2 when Bogut looked completely gassed/out of breath (compared to the other players) after running up and down the floor at speed. Based on that, I have doubts about the number of quality minutes he can give them.

Imo, KD appears different (so far) in this series than what I'm used to seeing. Haven't seen that many times where he gets the ball in a half court offense and creates his own shot off the dribble and shoots a three. One of three from behind the arc (so far) in this series. Not sure if that's a result of Beverley's defense or if he's being used differently (or both.)

Game 3 tonight in LA. (Should be interesting.)


-jp

.

Didn't seen it, but Durant had a big game in GSW's win tonight, so I guess he solved whatever the problem was with Beverly -- although the much smaller Tony Allen used to hamper him in a similar way back in the day. Durant is a great player and certainly capable of creating his own shot, but he's not a great crunch-time decision-maker, which is why Curry is so important for them. They need SC's playmaking more than ever since opposing defenses can now sag off Draymond Green.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

For betting purposes, capitalize on that.

The NBA needs Giannis to advance. The NBA needs the New England Celtics to advance...

not necessarily tonight or the very next game, but pick your spots and use their business model to your advantage.

I'm familiar with your approach to the NBA, RF, but do you really think the league has total control over the game? ;-). Don't you think it's the superstars who now have taken over the post-season -- Durant, Kawhi, Kyrie (leaving Cleveland, and probably Boston), CP3, Cousins (pre-injury). Playoff ratings are down 15-30%, likely due to the dominance of GSW and absence of LBJ -- don't you think they would change this if they could?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lansdale

I'm familiar with your approach to the NBA, RF, but do you really think the league has total control over the game? ;-). Don't you think it's the superstars who now have taken over the post-season -- Durant, Kawhi, Kyrie (leaving Cleveland, and probably Boston), CP3, Cousins (pre-injury). Playoff ratings are down 15-30%, likely due to the dominance of GSW and absence of LBJ -- don't you think they would change this if they could?

The players play the game. It's mostly (and some would argue 'all') the players.

I believe that the gambling industry/players occasionally has an interest, and I believe that the league occasionally has an interest. The league trumps the gambling interest when they can.

I look for plays where there is an underdog (which isn't always the line underdog, although the vast majority) where the league has an interest in the underdog, and the action comes in heavy for the attractive line on the superficial likely winner, and the line does not adjust. I've been lucky, whether that's a small sample coincidence or whatever.

Yea, the players and the agents and the shoe companies and the league and gambling rackets all vie for power.

LeBron has been such a focus, and the Golden State Warriors have built the great team... It's tough when a LeBron misses the playoffs. He'll be back if his body can hold up. For an aging star, he's really maintained his fitness impressively, but he must remain healthy and get some help.

A dude like Giannis who can gather the rock and triple-jump out of the picture is amazing to watch. He has the deal with Nike, "the greek freak" shoe which is a great product. Not getting any deals on the point spread thus far.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The players play the game. It's mostly (and some would argue 'all') the players.

I believe that the gambling industry/players occasionally has an interest, and I believe that the league occasionally has an interest. The league trumps the gambling interest when they can.

I look for plays where there is an underdog (which isn't always the line underdog, although the vast majority) where the league has an interest in the underdog, and the action comes in heavy for the attractive line on the superficial likely winner, and the line does not adjust. I've been lucky, whether that's a small sample coincidence or whatever.

Yea, the players and the agents and the shoe companies and the league and gambling rackets all vie for power.

LeBron has been such a focus, and the Golden State Warriors have built the great team... It's tough when a LeBron misses the playoffs. He'll be back if his body can hold up. For an aging star, he's really maintained his fitness impressively, but he must remain healthy and get some help.

A dude like Giannis who can gather the rock and triple-jump out of the picture is amazing to watch. He has the deal with Nike, "the greek freak" shoe which is a great product. Not getting any deals on the point spread thus far.

So you believe that not only the league, but also the players, their agents, gamblers, and even the shoe companies are fixing games? Is there a new Tim Donaghy out there? I've questioned NBA playoff officiating from time to time (and we now know Donaghy's role in the notorious 2002 Kings/Lakers series) but I think you've kind of gone off the deep end here. Any suspicious calls we can check out?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lansdale

So you believe that not only the league, but also the players, their agents, gamblers, and even the shoe companies are fixing games? Is there a new Tim Donaghy out there? I've questioned NBA playoff officiating from time to time (and we now know Donaghy's role in the notorious 2002 Kings/Lakers series) but I think you've kind of gone off the deep end here. Any suspicious calls we can check out?

No, of course not.

Sarcasm is difficult to convey on the internet, and I apologize.

[Robert Fischer]

for fun, and to get the gray horses out of my brain-fog and into view...


Utah -2 vs Hou


yea, i went 17-7 the time i did NBA picks here when a poster named 'Stillriledup' was off to a good start, but don't bet this, this is just a brain-fog warmup

models:
contrarianism -Houston is the fun team. They are up 2-0 in the series and everyone is betting.

line movement -Opened a very seductive '-3'. Yes, the line has been moved to '-2', but that does little to even out the action. No, this is not some make-or-break landslide public crush for the gambling racket, and they can take this loss, but nobody loves taking losses.

league - The league doesn't really care much whether this series gets swept. Logical to see a Golden State vs. Houston matchup in round 2. There is some mild interest in extending the series; the Asian-market for the Rockets, the Jazz market, keeping a general pace w/ the Golden State series, etc... but similar to the other models - there's not an extreme push.

I'll take the Jazz -2 here. If I'm right, the Jazz will take this game...

Speaking of 'gaming the system', - it's great to watch Harden stretch the traveling rule with his gathers and his amazing step-back-3. He is one of the most skilled and intelligent players in the league. He's like a kung-fu master. In the first 2 games this series he's shot an amazing 10/23 from 3-pt range.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Utah -2 vs Hou

Can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink.

Utah refused to win that game.

You can have the calls go your way, You can have a mega-usage guy like Harden have an 'off' night, but if you can't score, take bad shots, and the other team's scrubs happen to hit enough clutch shots, all the 'push' in the world isn't going to always carry you.

None of the lines for today's game jump off the screen. Boston may sweep Indiana, but the betting models aren't there. If I see another interesting line these playoffs, I'll post.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

for fun, and to get the gray horses out of my brain-fog and into view...


Utah -2 vs Hou


yea, i went 17-7 the time i did NBA picks here when a poster named 'Stillriledup' was off to a good start, but don't bet this, this is just a brain-fog warmup

models:
contrarianism -Houston is the fun team. They are up 2-0 in the series and everyone is betting.

line movement -Opened a very seductive '-3'. Yes, the line has been moved to '-2', but that does little to even out the action. No, this is not some make-or-break landslide public crush for the gambling racket, and they can take this loss, but nobody loves taking losses.

league - The league doesn't really care much whether this series gets swept. Logical to see a Golden State vs. Houston matchup in round 2. There is some mild interest in extending the series; the Asian-market for the Rockets, the Jazz market, keeping a general pace w/ the Golden State series, etc... but similar to the other models - there's not an extreme push.

I'll take the Jazz -2 here. If I'm right, the Jazz will take this game...

Speaking of 'gaming the system', - it's great to watch Harden stretch the traveling rule with his gathers and his amazing step-back-3. He is one of the most skilled and intelligent players in the league. He's like a kung-fu master. In the first 2 games this series he's shot an amazing 10/23 from 3-pt range.

Hi RF,

Not trying to make too much out of this, but after saying above that you were just joking about outside influence on the NBA, here you're again talking about what the league cares about and whether there might be an interest in extending a series. How can a series be extended if there is no outside influence on the games?

Cheers,

lansdale

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Hi RF,

Not trying to make too much out of this, but after saying above that you were just joking about outside influence on the NBA, here you're again talking about what the league cares about and whether there might be an interest in extending a series. How can a series be extended if there is no outside influence on the games?

Cheers,

lansdale

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If I see another interesting line these playoffs, I'll post.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Cool.