Maximum Security

[cj]

Originally Posted by reckless

I think we can put a fork in Hidden Scroll as a major Kentucky Derby contender.

Absolutely no excuse in the Fla Derby. The horse never ran a jump at any time.
He couldn't even gain an inch on a maiden for god's sake.

He also has nowhere near enough points to get in so even if they wanted to try for some reason it won't be an option.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by reckless

I think we can put a fork in Hidden Scroll as a major Kentucky Derby contender.

Originally Posted by cj

He also has nowhere near enough points to get in so even if they wanted to try for some reason it won't be an option.

Yep and yep. Maybe he'll end up in the Pat Day Mile. Still a young lightly raced horse. Could improve down the road but doesn't appear to want much more than a mile. He got all the buzz while Maximum Security was ignored my many including myself in spite of posting good figures and winning by open lengths. Now he's going to be one of the Derby favorites.

[Dahossdaboss]

I think people are incorrect in thinking Hidden Scroll can’t handle longer than a mile. I’m also open to the possibility I’m very wrong about him.

He clearly did not like being rated. It seemed like it took all the fight out of him. Instead of regrouping I’d run him in the Lexington (assuming he’s healthy) and let him roll early.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Id send him to the Preakness

[Blenheim]

I'm having a little trouble deciphering how . . . a 43k Mdn Fair Grounds winner last out, wins the G2 Louisiana Derby and how a 50k Optional Claimer wins the G1 Florida Derby. I've got some ideas, but I just can't quite figure it.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Id send him to the Preakness

Wait for Belmont, one turn.

Allowance, Peter Pan, Dwyer.

followed up by the Haskell on speed favoring Monmouth surface.

Then retired after he runs off the board in the Travers.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Wait for Belmont, one turn.

Allowance, Peter Pan, Dwyer.

followed up by the Haskell on speed favoring Monmouth surface.

Then retired after he runs off the board in the Travers.

Ha yeah Monmouth was built for Hidden Scroll

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Wait for Belmont, one turn.

Allowance, Peter Pan, Dwyer.

followed up by the Haskell on speed favoring Monmouth surface.

Then retired after he runs off the board in the Travers.

Aw man, you never said spoiler alert!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I'm having a little trouble deciphering how . . . a 43k Mdn Fair Grounds winner last out, wins the G2 Louisiana Derby and how a 50k Optional Claimer wins the G1 Florida Derby. I've got some ideas, but I just can't quite figure it.

ill say it... weak crop...

[burnsy]

This horse got away with a sweet pace early. But it can’t be denied he finished well. I don’t care how cheap he started out. He steps up and delivers, shows the ability to cruise for the entire race, every race. The other two I would look at are Code and Bourbon if he gets in. Pace makes the race, they were against it but closed fast. A faster pace could improve either of those two chances if they go.

It’s hilarious that this turns into another Hidden Scroll thread. Fan boy central. A horse that in all likelihood won’t be in the gate. I guess we can all hope. It springs eternal.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Pace makes the race, they were against it but closed fast. A faster pace could improve either of those two chances if they go.

I think MS is the real deal. The only item that gives me a small amount of pause is there were five horses in that race including Hidden Scroll that ran a final 3/8th in 37.8 or less. That's not common but perhaps a result of the pedestrian fractions to the 3/4 pole.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by burnsy

This horse got away with a sweet pace early. But it can’t be denied he finished well.

That's usually the story with every horse that walks on the lead. Hard to give him points for that as he's unlikely to get such a soft pace at Churchill. That's like giving Hidden Scroll points for winning his debut on a paved wet-fast track. Can't bank on that when the track is dry.

I don’t care how cheap he started out. He steps up and delivers, shows the ability to cruise for the entire race, every race.

Well his ability to cruise in those earlier races are likely a function of running against lower quality horses. In that respect, the fact that he didn't have to face a contested pace in the Florida Derby still leaves questions unanswered. It wasn't a full acid test.

The other two I would look at are Code and Bourbon if he gets in. Pace makes the race, they were against it but closed fast. A faster pace could improve either of those two chances if they go.

Code of Honor tends to run in spots and in the Florida Derby he ran erratically in the stretch. Seems inconsistent, but if he's training sharply for the race and/or they do something like add blinkers he could be an interesting longshot.

It’s hilarious that this turns into another Hidden Scroll thread. Fan boy central. A horse that in all likelihood won’t be in the gate. I guess we can all hope. It springs eternal.

I think every post on Hidden Scroll eliminated him as a Derby prospect. I mentioned elsewhere had he been able to run through his conditions he might be a legitimate contender (albeit a bit behind the eight ball).

Nowadays if you have a late starter, I guess you have to risk him for a maiden claiming $16K tag in order to have a more sensible campaign leading up to the Derby.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by burnsy

It’s hilarious that this turns into another Hidden Scroll thread. Fan boy central. A horse that in all likelihood won’t be in the gate. I guess we can all hope. It springs eternal.

Not nearly as hilarious as someone who NEVER has a pre race thought but is an expert AFTER the fact.

I get it. It’s scary to have an opinion before. You might be wrong. Then how could you post unfunny quips after?

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I think MS is the real deal. The only item that gives me a small amount of pause is there were five horses in that race including Hidden Scroll that ran a final 3/8th in 37.8 or less. That's not common but perhaps a result of the pedestrian fractions to the 3/4 pole.

I agree with the "real deal" sentiment. If and its a big one. he can run those 12's in the derby he will be tough to beat. The only caveat is if he's a need to lead and is forced to run a 1:11 or so then he might be in trouble.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

...The only caveat is if he's a need to lead and is forced to run a 1:11 or so then he might be in trouble.

He did press in his second start which should add some confidence he doesn't need to be on the engine. He would probably benefit from an inside draw if he does go for a War Emblem style theft. Potentially all the better for him if we get another slopfest. There also doesn't seem to be the Promises Fulfilled type in the gate that you know will take the lead and heat up the early fractions.