Maximum Security

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I think MS is the real deal. The only item that gives me a small amount of pause is there were five horses in that race including Hidden Scroll that ran a final 3/8th in 37.8 or less. That's not common but perhaps a result of the pedestrian fractions to the 3/4 pole.

I agree with the "real deal" sentiment. If and its a big one. he can run those 12's in the derby he will be tough to beat. The only caveat is if he's a need to lead and is forced to run a 1:11 or so then he might be in trouble.

The "real deal" would be able to run fast early AND fast late.


What makes Maximum Security and these swifty types a good bet is there is not enough stamina in the breed to catch them late; even a horse bred for distance like Code of Honor couldn't catch the front speed - didn't have the turn of foot and endurance late.

What makes Maximum Security and these swifty types a bad bet is if they are challenged and get the pace pressure early, as Hidden Scroll was in the FOY, they don't have the stamina and endurance to sustain their speed late and will likely be overtaken – but IMO, only by narrow margins.

It is shapin’ up to be a fun and interesting race. Does Game Winner only need to beat a 50k Optional Claimer? What will Maximum Security think when in the gate next to Instagrand . . .

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

The "real deal" would be able to run fast early AND fast late.

What will Maximum Security think when in the gate next to Instagrand . . .

I'm beginning to think this Derby will resemble another merry go round.

We know MS can be fast early as evidenced by his sprints. We know he can be fast late per the FL Derby. We shall see if he can do a bit of both. I fully expect him to be at or near the engine. Instagrand would be a good pace test however he still needs to secure a gate. I'm putting Game Winner and Roadster above him in the Santa Anita which would put him on outside of the bubble. We will know tomorrow.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm beginning to think this Derby will resemble another merry go round.

We know MS can be fast early as evidenced by his sprints. We know he can be fast late per the FL Derby. We shall see if he can do a bit of both. I fully expect him to be at or near the engine. Instagrand would be a good pace test however he still needs to secure a gate. I'm putting Game Winner and Roadster above him in the Santa Anita which would put him on outside of the bubble. We will know tomorrow.

I agree . . . and sometimes I think the journey and the drama along the Derby Trail is the real story and the Derby itself a let down.

It has been and continues to be a rather dramatic Derby Trail this year w/the cancellation of the San Felipe and the Santa Anita racetrack drama . . . w/the Santa Anita Derby yet to be run. And, to further the wonder of the Derby Trail, IMO the best horse Improbable is yet to get a gate. The Santa Anita Derby should be a good one and fun to watch but I'm really lookin' forward to the Arkansas.

The drama continues . . .

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

Not nearly as hilarious as someone who NEVER has a pre race thought but is an expert AFTER the fact.

I get it. It’s scary to have an opinion before. You might be wrong. Then how could you post unfunny quips after?

Catching up on posts, and noticing a trend. You like to call people stalkers, right? Is burnsy your new target of affection?

PS. As admin, I can't be called a stalker, so don't even try.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Catching up on posts, and noticing a trend. You like to call people stalkers, right? Is burnsy your new target of affection?

PS. As admin, I can't be called a stalker, so don't even try.

Nah you’re the biggest stalker of them all. I actually don’t like to call people stalkers.

But you’re rarely right when it comes to me anyway so why start now?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

J4.00 was once considered the cutoff however the average winning figure has been increasing for years and Roman acknowledged as much.

Yes, he did. 3.00 and above is now the "norm" (unless you're looking at the stamina horses under 2.0) and he has acknowledged this for quite some time.

It would be more useful for handicappers to just use "horse sense" when it comes to picking a horse to win the Derby. Plenty of wagers on went in on Magnum Moon, despite that the horse could not even run in a straight line.

You see stuff like that, you just eliminate. It's common sense.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Yes, he did. 3.00 and above is now the "norm" (unless you're looking at the stamina horses under 2.0) and he has acknowledged this for quite some time.

It would be more useful for handicappers to just use "horse sense" when it comes to picking a horse to win the Derby. Plenty of wagers on went in on Magnum Moon, despite that the horse could not even run in a straight line.

You see stuff like that, you just eliminate. It's common sense.

Like Vekoma's spaghetti legs in the stretch run... no way he gets 10F

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Like Vekoma's spaghetti legs in the stretch run... no way he gets 10F

Some horses just have a weird way of going. I always look at them carefully because efficiency is certainly important in a race like this.

BTW, Steve Roman was very clear in his book that "You still have to balance pedigree with class, form, trip and all the other factors that contribute to the outcome of a race..."

He never advocated picking winners from dosage theory.

No different than people who would (stupidly) cap a Classic distance race on Beyer speed alone. No reason not to use all the tools in the box, horses aren't just numbers, they have influences coming from other generations and if you like a runner it behooves a person to look at their pedigree lineage dosage, and female family to help you in the task. To be honest, I think people who are the most against anything having to deal with pedigree are people who haven't done that kind of homework, are intimidated to learn it (because it does require some learning curve) and it's easier for them to just TOSS IT from any discussion.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

But you’re rarely right when it comes to me anyway so why start now?

I see you live your life by the mantra "If I say it often enough, it becomes fact."

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I see you live your life by the mantra "If I say it often enough, it becomes fact."

Nah it’s a fact. Bothers you, huh?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

Nah it’s a fact. Bothers you, huh?

You should talk to Andy. He'll tell you very little bothers me.

[clicknow]

Maximum Security is undefeated......but only raced on one track his entire career and one that is somewhat speed favoring. He is not going to get anything close to that setup in the KY Derby at CDX. Things can really go either way for him either he makes it around the far turn okay passing other distance-challenged speed horses, but the ones who have some after-burners w/more stamina may pass him in the stretch.

I'm thinking the latter right now.

[letswastemoney]

The Kentucky Derby has been dominated by tactical speed since 2014. Maximum Security will be around 1st to 5th early, which makes him intriguing.

If he draws outside and can sit in the Always Dreaming position off another pacesetter, he will have a big shot.

[thaskalos]

Earlier today, TVG's in-house handicapping expert Peter Lurie pegged Maximum Security as his early pick for the Derby. Terrible news for the horse's prospective backers...because the horse's post-time odds will now surely be cut in half.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The Kentucky Derby has been dominated by tactical speed since 2014. Maximum Security will be around 1st to 5th early, which makes him intriguing.

that's very true. tactical speed is the name of the game.

watching tacitus show early foot in the wood helps his chances for positioning as well.

from the look of things it will prolly be easy to eliminate almost 2/3rd of the KD field right now because the top 3rd is just too good and can establish position...

looking like another year figure horses