1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread

[PowerUpPaynter]

[quote=Secondbest;2450172]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The call times are for the leader. The winner was 7.5 lengths back (~1.5 seconds) at the 3/4 pole hence adjustments need to be made to get his fraction.[/QUOTE

If the final 3/8 ths were run in 39.77 and Tacitus was 7 lengths back or 1.5 seconds then 39.77-1.5=38.27. Maybe I'm doing something wrong but I don't see where the 37.06 came from.

your right, there was an error in my formula for the Wood Memorial times - updated times

Tacitus 38.57 13.42
Tax 39.13 13.62
Haikal 38.07 13.08

[Parson]

This RAN and Buckpasser thing always confuses the hell out of me. I think I finally have the Buckpasser determined, so I am looking for confirmation. Here goes, The following are the only ones that have met the 37 4/5 or 12 4/5 time qualifier in a "Big 5"and have Buckpasser in the X position is

WIN WIN WIN, I have his final 3/8 calculated at 38 4/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5. He has Buckpasser passed to him from Unbridled (2nd Dam Sire) and Unbridled has it passed by Gana Gacil (Dam) via Charedi (2nd Dam) via Magic (3rd Dam) via Buckpasser. Sire of Magic.

The RAN is not traceable thru Win Win Win sire line only the dam side, therefore he does not qualify on the RAN

I also show WIN WIN WIN is from family 2-0 and therefore does not receive any of the 4 pts on Stan's Indicator 7 rule.

2 questions:

Am I correct on the above analysis?

2nd question: What about the BL line and how does that apply?

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Parson

This RAN and Buckpasser thing always confuses the hell out of me. I think I finally have the Buckpasser determined, so I am looking for confirmation. Here goes, The following are the only ones that have met the 37 4/5 or 12 4/5 time qualifier in a "Big 5"and have Buckpasser in the X position is

WIN WIN WIN, I have his final 3/8 calculated at 38 4/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5. He has Buckpasser passed to him from Unbridled (2nd Dam Sire) and Unbridled has it passed by Gana Gacil (Dam) via Charedi (2nd Dam) via Magic (3rd Dam) via Buckpasser. Sire of Magic.

The RAN is not traceable thru Win Win Win sire line only the dam side, therefore he does not qualify on the RAN

I also show WIN WIN WIN is from family 2-0 and therefore does not receive any of the 4 pts on Stan's Indicator 7 rule.

2 questions:

Am I correct on the above analysis?

2nd question: What about the BL line and how does that apply?

I'm no expert but I believe the X only goes through the female side. So the Unbridled doesn't count.

[Parson]

LA Derby does not qualify as a "Big 5" Prep but

Spinoff fractions by my calculations are 38.0 and 12 4/5

Spinoff is Buckpasser via his Dam Zaftig via her dam Zoftig via her dam Mrs. Marcos va her sire Private account via his dam Numbered Account.

Not sure about RAN, I do show it on his sire Hard Spun Dam side.

Family 1


Sunland Derby does not qualify but

Anothertwistafate fractions of 37.0 and 12.0

Buckpasser from Dam Imprecation via her sire First Defence via his dam Honest Lady via her dam Toussaud via her sire El Gran Senor via his dam Sex appeal via her sire Buckpasser

Why no RAN ,has Mr Prospector as 2nd dam sire of Scat Daddy?

[Blenheim]

From what I've read, the X-Factor does not exist. Here is the link: On the Existence of the X-Factor

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

I'm no expert but I believe the X only goes through the female side. So the Unbridled doesn't count.

It supposedly can go daughter to son and son to daughter but not son to son, hence the x designation. Win Win Win gets the Buckpasser via a daughter of Unbridled so has the x.

As far as RAN, we're only looking at top sire line and Win Win Win doesn't have it. He's the Turn-To line.

Originally Posted by Blenheim

From what I've read, the X-Factor does not exist. Here is the link: On the Existence of the X-Factor

Not gonna argue it aside from saying, regardless of reason, fast closing Buckpasser-x horses have a ridiculous Derby exacta impact value. It's a relatively small sample size so statistical fluke is a possibility. Look at last year; Justify followed by the next six finishers who were Buckpasser-x.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

It supposedly can go daughter to son and son to daughter but not son to son, hence the x designation. Win Win Win gets the Buckpasser via a daughter of Unbridled so has the x.

As far as RAN, we're only looking at top sire line and Win Win Win doesn't have it. He's the Turn-To line.



Not gonna argue it aside from saying, regardless of reason, fast closing Buckpasser-x horses have a ridiculous Derby exacta impact value. It's a relatively small sample size so statistical fluke is a possibility. Look at last year; Justify followed by the next six finishers who were Buckpasser-x.

We all have the right to believe what we want to believe and I absolutely respect and reaffirm that right. W/respect to the scientific method . . . larger sample sizes are critical; one Robin doesn't make it Spring.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

We all have the right to believe what we want to believe and I absolutely respect and reaffirm that right. W/respect to the scientific method . . . larger sample sizes are critical; one Robin doesn't make it Spring.

Agree, but we don't have that luxury in this case. It may be some other trait Buckpasser is passing down or it may be just statistical chance these horses had a good run. I figure if it works for wagering then go with it until it no longer provides positive results. I don't need to know why it works so long as it works.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

From what I've read, the X-Factor does not exist. Here is the link: On the Existence of the X-Factor

I read Mariana's book before she died. Her x-factor idea was theoretical.

Like most theories, there is always "something to it" and I never close my mind to anything.

As for Buckpasser, there are other influences that are important in the Derby, different ones for the Belmont, etc. Due dilligence says you get the pedigree charts for last 20 years and start seeing what they are. Falling back on the buckpasser thing as "the one and only" isn't any more valid than any other angle. It's not 100% or even 50% reallly.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Falling back on the buckpasser thing as "the one and only" isn't any more valid than any other angle. It's not 100% or even 50% reallly.

It's just one item to consider in the big picture. I will likely use Maximum Security on top. He doesn't have the Buckpasser-x but does have the Raise A Native, family 1, won the race that won the most Derby renewals, and is the fastest horse per BSF.

[Parson]

agree with you there. I will be curious if the race this week changes things and how much

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

It's just one item to consider in the big picture. I will likely use Maximum Security on top. He doesn't have the Buckpasser-x but does have the Raise A Native, family 1, won the race that won the most Derby renewals, and is the fastest horse per BSF.

I like family 1. The leading branch of Family 1 Derby winners is family 1-s. Next would be family 1-x. 1-n would be next which is what Max Sec is but you have to go back quite a number of years (see my exactas below).

I think Lowe's family 4 has the most winners though. I haven't looked at it in a while.

I kinda have a thing for 23-b and the 4-m and 4-r families.

Also keeping in mind that in many years there have been no starters in a given family, so they can't be fairly represented. Also in sometimes years and years go by and there aren't enough starters in any one family to make a large enough sample size to credit or discredit that family.

Also keeping in mind that when lowe came up with his system family 1 was actually more numerous in the population to begin with. So we don't really "know" for sure, and I've never seen any pedigree expert say, if they were/are more innately superior because of this.

I like looking at it though:

Exactas last 11 years:

Justify family 1-h
Good Magic family 12-c

Always Dreaming family 4-p
Lookin at Lee family 9-e

Nyquist family 6-f
Exaggerator family 3-g

American Pharoah family 14
Firing Line family 14-c

California Chrome A4
Commanding Curve family 4-m

Orb family 8-c
Golden Soul family 1-w

I’ll Have Another family 23-b
Bodemeister family 1-n

Animal Kingdom 1-h
Nehro family 4-r

Supersaver family 1-x
Ice Box family 1-s

Mine That Bird family 23-b
Pioneerof the Nile family 4-k

Big Brown family 5-h
Eight Belles family 1-x

[clicknow]

all said, I think MS gets pressed in the stretch by a horse who can accelerate past his rather even type speed.

[Gerard02]

I won’t make my decisions until after the Arkansas Derby. Then, I’ll sit down and fill out the list. Maximum Security looks tops, so far. For those who have Stan Caris Book on the Triple Crown, remember, Rule 1 Times on 3/8ths and 1/8th final time are either/or. If a horse scores both, it’s a strong plus.

[tjfla]

So who are the female families for this years horses? ANy Family 1