1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

I won’t make my decisions until after the Arkansas Derby. Then, I’ll sit down and fill out the list. Maximum Security looks tops, so far. For those who have Stan Caris Book on the Triple Crown, remember, Rule 1 Times on 3/8ths and 1/8th final time are either/or. If a horse scores both, it’s a strong plus.

Last 29 races


26-29 Winners have met 1 of them AND 22-29 winner have met BOTH. Tacitus meets NEITHER which sucks

[PowerUpPaynter]

I think the fraction hold less weight this year as most have been over 38 and over 13 with the exception of Sunland and Florida which the Florida derby the slow pace skews everything and Sunland might as well be asphalt...

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

I found where I left off, skipped 2011 since the winner came out of a synthetic track race. Not sure how to handle those. I'll work on it next week.

Then I did 2010. Top three were Ice Box, Dublin, Super Saver.

For some reason (maybe pre synthetics?), I then went to the beginning of my data, 2004:

Top 3: The Cliff's Edge, Lion Heart, Smarty Jones

The last one I did was 2005: Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, Greeley's Galaxy

I'll finish the rest this week and post. The query is all set up but takes a bit to run it for each year and pair up with the horses that actually ran in the Derby.

I guess I'll just treat synth race like the others and see how it works out.

Here is what I have so far for 2019. Obviously we'll add horses after the Arkansas Derby. For now, I only used horses in the top 35 in Derby points that had a qualifying 1 1/8 mile race. The last fraction is from the TimeformUS Adjusted Times, equalized by track and for the track speed.

[Gerard02]

Tax and Maximum Security are Family 1, so far. I put in a few numbers, but I don’t have the DRF speed figures and track variant for Rule 5. I have to go to Equibase to get the horses races at two for Rule 6. Right now, Maximum Security looks to score a high of 15 points. Looks like the others are short on Rule 3.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by tjfla

So who are the female families for this years horses? ANy Family 1

Maximum Security 1-n
Game Winner 1-x
Spinoff 1-n
Tax 1-tax

[Gerard02]

On your spreadsheet, 11 horses will qualify on Rule 1 at the Last 1/8th mile.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I have so far for 2019. Obviously we'll add horses after the Arkansas Derby. For now, I only used horses in the top 35 in Derby points that had a qualifying 1 1/8 mile race. The last fraction is from the TimeformUS Adjusted Times, equalized by track and for the track speed.

Nice . . . clear and definitive. Thanks.

It is likely that the methodology and the formula[s] you use to derive your figures is proprietary. As best as you can, without disclosing means and methods, please define "equalized by track and for the track speed."

[jim michalak]

c.j. will you be doing this analysis for the 2019 Kentucky derby? thanks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jim michalak

c.j. will you be doing this analysis for the 2019 Kentucky derby? thanks.

Yep, I'll update it as the field gets clearer and eventually finalizes.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Nice . . . clear and definitive. Thanks.

It is likely that the methodology and the formula[s] you use to derive your figures is proprietary. As best as you can, without disclosing means and methods, please define "equalized by track and for the track speed."

Nothing too complicated. Each track has a baseline for each distance and the finishing times are faster at some than others. So, I equalize that way, then the track variant for that specific day takes care of the track speed part.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by tjfla

So who are the female families for this years horses? ANy Family 1

so that you can figure this stuff out on your own next time, or when you need to, just go to pedigree dot com and put in the horse names and you will see the "family" in the information on the horse. Hope this helps you

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by clicknow

so that you can figure this stuff out on your own next time, or when you need to, just go to pedigree dot com and put in the horse names and you will see the "family" in the information on the horse. Hope this helps you

Thanks for info. Ya I dont mind looking it up just wasnt sure how to.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by cj

Nothing too complicated. Each track has a baseline for each distance and the finishing times are faster at some than others. So, I equalize that way, then the track variant for that specific day takes care of the track speed part.

So If Maximus runs a 36.23 LF at Gulfstream Park, what would his time be @ Santa Anita?

With respect to Santa Anita, the "baseline" and the breakdown deaths, have you see any change in the baseline at Santa Anita this year when compared to the same time last year? How does the baseline this year compare to the recent historic baseline average? Has the historic rainfall had an effect on the baseline?

What about the baseline[s] system wide. Are you seein' any patterns . . . or changes in the baseline @ GP; FG; OP; AQ; KEE and Churchill Downs? Are the track superintendents scrubbing speed out of or are they putting speed into these tracks, or are they pretty much the same?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

So If Maximus runs a 36.23 LF at Gulfstream Park, what would his time be @ Santa Anita?

With respect to Santa Anita, the "baseline" and the breakdown deaths, have you see any change in the baseline at Santa Anita this year when compared to the same time last year? How does the baseline this year compare to the recent historic baseline average? Has the historic rainfall had an effect on the baseline?

What about the baseline[s] system wide. Are you seein' any patterns . . . or changes in the baseline @ GP; FG; OP; AQ; KEE and Churchill Downs? Are the track superintendents scrubbing speed out of or are they putting speed into these tracks, or are they pretty much the same?

Had to look it up...Gulfstream is 0.18 seconds faster for the closing 3f, before taking into account the daily track variant. Usually it just has to do with geometry. The easier the turns the faster the finishing time.

There hasn't been any change at Santa Anita. The times are slower, but the ratio has been about the same. People are talking about how slow it has been, but this actually happened last year as well where the track was made really slow. The change this year was all the rain to seemed to speed it back up.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I have so far for 2019. Obviously we'll add horses after the Arkansas Derby. For now, I only used horses in the top 35 in Derby points that had a qualifying 1 1/8 mile race. The last fraction is from the TimeformUS Adjusted Times, equalized by track and for the track speed.

Where's Long Range Toddy?