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06-15-2017, 09:50 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Today the new "GG" system will start to be tested for 100 plays at 5/2 or higher
Today the new "GG" system will start to be tested for 100 plays at 5/2 or higher.
For 6-15-2017 the picks are:
1st race-church - #7
5th race - fair meadows- #4
7th race -Evangeline-#1
6th race - prairie-#2
5th race - lone star- #5
Good luck!
Bill C
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06-15-2017, 11:08 AM
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#2
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
Today the new "GG" system will start to be tested for 100 plays at 5/2 or higher.
For 6-15-2017 the picks are:
1st race-church - #7
5th race - fair meadows- #4
7th race -Evangeline-#1
6th race - prairie-#2
5th race - lone star- #5
Good luck!
Bill C
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When you say 5/2 are you referring to the final odds? Note that there is no way to now the final odds before the race is closed for betting thus you can use this as a selection factor.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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06-15-2017, 11:14 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
When you say 5/2 are you referring to the final odds? Note that there is no way to now the final odds before the race is closed for betting thus you can use this as a selection factor.
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Yes, I'm aware of not being able to know the final odds until after the race has started.
I AM FOR THE PURPOSE OF TESTING THE "GG" SYSTEM USING THE FINAL ODDS.
I SHOULD SAY THAT I WILL TEST 100 PLAYS OF THE "GG"SYSTEM AT 5/2 OR HIGHER IN THEIR FINAL ODDS. ANY PLAY THAT GOES OFF AT LESS THAN 5/2 IN THE FINAL ODDS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TEST.
THE 5/2 OR HIGHER ODDS FILTER IS CRITICAL TO THE "GG
"SYSTEM'S SUCCESS!
As far as my own betting goes, I use the 5/2 odds filter on Twinspires.com.
Best,
Bill C
Last edited by Bill Cullen; 06-15-2017 at 11:19 AM.
Reason: omission
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06-15-2017, 11:30 AM
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#4
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
Yes, I'm aware of not being able to know the final odds until after the race has started.
I AM FOR THE PURPOSE OF TESTING THE "GG" SYSTEM USING THE FINAL ODDS.
I SHOULD SAY THAT I WILL TEST 100 PLAYS OF THE "GG"SYSTEM AT 5/2 OR HIGHER IN THEIR FINAL ODDS. ANY PLAY THAT GOES OFF AT LESS THAN 5/2 IN THE FINAL ODDS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TEST.
THE 5/2 OR HIGHER ODDS FILTER IS CRITICAL TO THE "GG
"SYSTEM'S SUCCESS!
As far as my own betting goes, I use the 5/2 odds filter on Twinspires.com.
Best,
Bill C
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You can test in any way you like but you have to understand that your approach is not realistic by no means as it involves posterior information. What you doing is similar to say "this selection is a bet only if it takes the lead" or anything similar.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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06-15-2017, 12:10 PM
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#5
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
You can test in any way you like but you have to understand that your approach is not realistic by no means as it involves posterior information. What you doing is similar to say "this selection is a bet only if it takes the lead" or anything similar.
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Give the guy a break!
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06-15-2017, 12:28 PM
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#6
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
Give the guy a break!
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His starting point is wrong and I cared to correct him. What is wrong with this?
By the way, you are his lawyer or what?
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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06-15-2017, 12:44 PM
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#7
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
By the way, you are his lawyer or what?
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I don't like to talk about it, but yes, I am.
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06-15-2017, 01:03 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
You can test in any way you like but you have to understand that your approach is not realistic by no means as it involves posterior information. What you doing is similar to say "this selection is a bet only if it takes the lead" or anything similar.
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The way you state the case above, yes, my testing method is less than perfect.
But that doesn't mean it isn't valid. I'm trying to select horses that go off at 5/2 or higher. OF COURSE THERE WILL BE HORSES THAT GO OFF LESS THAN THAT. THAT IS NO DIFFERENT THAN ANY ONE TRYING TO SEE IF HIS OR HER BET WILL GO OFF AT THE MINIMUM ODDS THAT ARE ACCEPTABLE TO THAT PERSON AS THE HORSES ARE GOING INTO THE GATE.
When I initially ran through my own private sample, more than half of my bets failed because the odds were less than 5/2 at zero post time. I couldn't have cared less about those non-bets. Sure, a few got through that were 5/2 or higher at zero post time and then went down below 5/2 for the final odds.
As far as I am concerned from my analysis of my initial sample, those few below 5/2 bets that got through were water off a duck's back.
Delta Lover, from my point of view, you have added nothing new to the scope of knowledge critically relevant to the testing of the "GG" system.
Be well.
Bill C
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06-15-2017, 01:15 PM
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#9
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
The way you state the case above, yes, my testing method is less than perfect.
But that doesn't mean it isn't valid. I'm trying to select horses that go off at 5/2 or higher. OF COURSE THERE WILL BE HORSES THAT GO OFF LESS THAN THAT. THAT IS NO DIFFERENT THAN ANY ONE TRYING TO SEE IF HIS OR HER BET WILL GO OFF AT THE MINIMUM ODDS THAT ARE ACCEPTABLE TO THAT PERSON AS THE HORSES ARE GOING INTO THE GATE.
When I initially ran through my own private sample, more than half of my bets failed because the odds were less than 5/2 at zero post time. I couldn't have cared less about those non-bets. Sure, a few got through that were 5/2 or higher at zero post time and then went down below 5/2 for the final odds.
As far as I am concerned from my analysis of my initial sample, those few below 5/2 bets that got through were water off a duck's back.
Delta Lover, from my point of view, you have added nothing new to the scope of knowledge critically relevant to the testing of the "GG" system.
Be well.
Bill C
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Sorry, but your test as you are planning it is not convincing and cannot be used to confirm any significant conclusions. The final odds uncertainty is one of the most critical points to be handled by any betting system (as it is the price drift due to the bet itself). Without any intention to offend you, you do not seem to have the related experience and knowledge to perform this kind of an experiment and it would be good for you to listen to others that have been doing this for very long periods of time.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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06-15-2017, 01:25 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Sorry, but your test as you are planning it is not convincing and cannot be used to confirm any significant conclusions. The final odds uncertainty is one of the most critical points to be handled by any betting system (as it is the price drift due to the bet itself). Without any intention to offend you, you do not seem to have the related experience and knowledge to perform this kind of an experiment and it would be good for you to listen to others that have been doing this for very long periods of time.
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I take no offence. I automatically assume your intentions are to the good.
>Without any intention to offend you, you do not seem to have the related >experience and knowledge to perform this kind of an experiment and it >would be good for you to listen to others that have been doing this for very >long periods of time.[/
Really? You know that much about me?
I must say I am mildly amused.
Best,
Bill C
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06-15-2017, 01:33 PM
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#11
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
I take no offence. I automatically assume your intentions are to the good.
>Without any intention to offend you, you do not seem to have the related >experience and knowledge to perform this kind of an experiment and it >would be good for you to listen to others that have been doing this for very >long periods of time.[/
Really? You know that much about me?
I must say I am mildly amused.
Best,
Bill C
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I do not know nothing more that your postings and your claims about 20% ROI, 30% strike rate etc that I find naive. More than this the fact that you rely on printed PP and do not keep a historical result database also are good pointers for me to classify your related knowledge and experience.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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06-15-2017, 01:35 PM
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#12
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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In the future, Bill..please remember to submit all testing and methods to Delta for final approval.
You have some nerve!
Kidding Bill .....I'm interested in your method and results, as probably a lot of people are---go for it
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06-15-2017, 01:38 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
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I am also interested in your results. Best of luck.
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06-15-2017, 01:39 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
I do not know nothing more that your postings and your claims about 20% ROI, 30% strike rate etc that I find naive. More than this the fact that you rely on printed PP and do not keep a historical result database also are good pointers for me to classify your related knowledge and experience.
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I'll let the results of the "GG" system test speak for themselves.
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06-15-2017, 02:30 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
In the future, Bill..please remember to submit all testing and methods to Delta for final approval.
You have some nerve!
Kidding Bill .....I'm interested in your method and results, as probably a lot of people are---go for it
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Thanks for the encouragement!
Best,
Bill C
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