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Old 02-17-2019, 11:12 AM   #1
Teach
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,032
Aqueduct: Sunday, February 17

Race One:

1 APPRECIATE jumps from claimers to special-weights. A “Bridge Too Far”?

RESTRUCTURE turns back nearly two panels. Red-hot “bug”.

CADEAU DE PAIX (“Peace-Offering”) is cutting back. Must last.

STARRY ROSE may have needed that first start. Junior’s been hot. The Hall-of-Famer, Bill Mott, trains.

SMOOTH QUALITY is an unknown. Hard to tell. Watch horse on track and on tote. Kiaran’s first-time-starter numbers are not exceptional.

Race Two:


1 DOOLEY tends to be an “also ran”. I’m thinking, at best, a minor award.

ROGUE NATION looks, on paper, to be a contender. Class drop. DRF: “Suspicious”. Trepidation. In other words: “Don’t bet the ranch!”

DISCREET MISSION would appear to be “The Horse”. Class drop. Junior. John Kimmel. If he’s ready, he pops.

4 FLATEXCEL jumps up the claiming ladder. Beaten by weaker. I don’t see him as a contender.

6 SPECIAL STORY doesn’t appear to have the stamina or the class. Yet he does have Reylu Gutierrez in the irons.

AMERICAN LINCOLN (Wouldn’t it be appropriate on Presidents’ Day weekend. No sentimentality, Teach!). Picks up, Manny. Linda Rice has outstanding numbers with beaten favorites.

Race Three:

SPECTATOR SPORT was claimed a week ago out of the Chad Brown barn. Rob Atras (do I read those numbers right? I’d better go to my opthamalogist. Atras is 7 for 11 with two 2nds. The Canadian native with a barn security goat named Gilbert, has, needless to say (I’ll say it, anyway) been razor-sharp!

WILL DANCER should go “the chalk”. As the Sage of St. Johns University, “The Oracle of Ozone Park,” “The Big A,” Tony Stabile, oft said: The drop from MSWs into the claiming ranks is one of the most precipitous drops in all of thoroughbred racing. Nota Bene. You can add to the equation the riding services of Manny Franco and the training skills of Chad Brown.

3 GALLANT BID is a first-time starter out of the Linda Rice Barn (Linda’s an excellent trainer; yet her numbers for first-timers are mediocre). I may just watch.

4 EDDY DIRT is another first-timer out of the Rudy barn. I may pass on this one, as well.

BUMPERDOO is, in my opinion, an intriguing horse. In his last, he vied for the lead early, yet came on late in a 9-panels race (yes, he could have liked the slop, but even so…) I think this guy “gets” the mile. This Nick Zito-trainee represents “the unknown”. I’ll call it “x”. Yet, I’ll likely use him in my equation.

INCLUNATION looks like “a plodder”. Thus, he must be given due consideration in a route. I would not rule him out.

Race Four:

BLEWITT looks like “the real deal”. I’m talkin’ about the late-blooming Todd Pletcher-trainee. Do not expect much in return. Appears to be “The Horse”. Manny Franco in the irons.

3 CARTHON has never raced nine panels; thus, he’s suspect. Another horse who’s capable of completing a gimmick.

4 FIVE STAR BUNT is suspect for completing nine panels.

LOCAL COUNSEL looks like the plodding type who is stepping up off his last winning effort. Could be in for a share of the spoils.

BLUGRASCAT’S SMILE can certainly be a contender’ yet I personally don’t see him getting his picture taken.

Race Five:

1 FIVE NIGHT FREDDIE is not on my radar screen.

2 CANDY SMILE is another horse that does not register.

NEPER can win at first-asking. The breeding is exceptional. The Zayats’ paid mucho dinero at Fasig-Tipton for this guy. Sharp work.

PRESTON COURT could be a surprise. Watch the odds. Look at him on track. Broodmare has three winners from three starters.

THE BIG LEBANESE can’t be discounted. Performed well on wet track (his breeding indicated such). Now gets dry track. How will he perform? Worthy of consideration.

6 TOP OF THE MINT can complete an exotic. Reylu for Mark Hennig. Third-place finish in last.

8 GONGIFHEATCHOY showed little in last. Hard to recommend.

LORCAN Is a possible surprise factor here. Finished 3rd against similar. Merits careful consideration.

Race Six:

1 OH K FUNNYBONE won last in the mud. I don’t see a repeat. To complete an exotic. Possible?

2 BROTHER TEZ ships in from PARX. Beaten by weaker. May be short.

3 THESIS ships in from FL. It’s one thing to win there; it’s another to win downstate. I have my doubts.

MEND UP won his last against similar. Was it “a flash in the pan,” or was it the start of an upward trend. I’m going to watch him on the track and on the board.

5 POWER SOURCE is a colt I find hard to recommend. Yes, he won two-back; yet he’s been away from the track “for the longest time.”

D EMCEE won through disqualification. This time I believe he can win in his own right. The Dylan Davis-ridden, Ed Barker-trainee, is my pick.

MAC’S REVOLUTION – like “Billy Batts” -- has been away for a while (no more shoeshine box…”like mirrors”). He did win his last: a route; so I wouldn’t completely discount.

Race Seven:

HONOR UP is my pick in the 100K Haynsfield. The added furlong should help the Say Florida Sandy winner.

SYNDEGAARD was 2nd to the top pick in his last. He’s very much a contender.

3 FIERY OPAL appears overmatched.

TWISTED TOM is no ‘palooka’; he’s a “contendah”. Must be accorded consideration. He’s won over half his lifetime races.

5 LORI’S VENGEANCE, in my opinion, doesn’t have the stamina nor class for this non-graded stakes company.

STONEY BENNETT can be dangerous if he can get loose on the lead. If he ever puts this field to sleep…?

Race Eight:

1 TRUE BLUE GIANT is a possible; yet I’m leery of the inside post vis a vis his running style.

2 BOBBY MAN is possible; yet I find it hard to recommend.

MILLIONAIRE JOE is a first-time starter with a decent morning work. It would be a surprise, yet…

4 SARATOGA PROMISE has a solid morning work-tab. I’m taking a close look.

BIG PADDY BROWN is, in my opinion, a contender. He came on in the stretch. Half-panel helps.

6 FOTIS is a horse who, if he were to win, would be a total surprise.

THE SINNER IS YOU is a possible. The Hibiscus Stables paid serious “bread” for this guy. Sharp 4-panel word. Broodmare produced four winners from 5 starters.

8 DA BERG appears unlikely; yet the dam did produce four winners from 5 starters.

I SAW IT ALL is my choice. As the horse racing philosopher once opined: “In the land of the first-time starters, the horse with a race under his belt is king.” I like the outside post. I like the jockey switch. I like the trainer.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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