Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-17-2018, 12:08 PM   #196
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Nitro, do me a favor and show the bets you made and the total outlay you had in this race.....Thanks.
So...What were your tri bets in this race?....Which way did you end up actually betting, single key in all slots or boxed all 6?
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 12:39 PM   #197
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
So...What were your tri bets in this race?....Which way did you end up actually betting, single key in all slots or boxed all 6?
Because of the time factor I used the quick and easy approach by boxing all 6 entries. I will generally only play the verticals when the Profit margin for a Dutch Win wager is less than 50%.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 12:45 PM   #198
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Because of the time factor I used the quick and easy approach by boxing all 6 entries. I will generally only play the verticals when the Profit margin for a Dutch Win wager is less than 50%.
2 horses at 2-1 each...if one wins it pays $6.00...for a $2.00 profit for a $4.00 investment...would this be an example of a 50% minimum Dutch win profit margin...?
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 01:43 PM   #199
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
2 horses at 2-1 each...if one wins it pays $6.00...for a $2.00 profit for a $4.00 investment...would this be an example of a 50% minimum Dutch win profit margin...?
Yes, that’s correct.
Basic 2-Entry Dutch Win Bet when both are @ 2/1 odds
Code:

LOW		HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.0		2.0	BET	PRF	
$6		$6			
$6		$6	$12	$6	50%
$18		$18			
When playing Hong Kong I only look for 3-Entry Dutch Win bets that will provide a greater than 50% Profit margin..
In the example above in Sunday’s Race 2 - #11 = 1.9/1 (2.9HK) / #1 = 2.7/1 (3.7HK) / #3 = 9/1 (10HK)
This was a pass because the Profit margin was less than 50%.
Code:

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.9	2.7	9.0	BET	PRF	
$6	$7	$20			
$20	$16	$6	$41	$17	40%
$58	$58	$58			
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 04:54 PM   #200
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Yes, that’s correct.
Basic 2-Entry Dutch Win Bet when both are @ 2/1 odds
Code:

LOW		HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.0		2.0	BET	PRF	
$6		$6			
$6		$6	$12	$6	50%
$18		$18			
When playing Hong Kong I only look for 3-Entry Dutch Win bets that will provide a greater than 50% Profit margin..
In the example above in Sunday’s Race 2 - #11 = 1.9/1 (2.9HK) / #1 = 2.7/1 (3.7HK) / #3 = 9/1 (10HK)
This was a pass because the Profit margin was less than 50%.
Code:

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.9	2.7	9.0	BET	PRF	
$6	$7	$20			
$20	$16	$6	$41	$17	40%
$58	$58	$58			
Ok, I think I understand what is being done here...so in simpler terms

1. Pick 3 horses (example, 10-1, 20-1, 30-1)
2. Take the longest odds horse and assign an arbitrary number of bets to it, then calculate the return....the 30-1 is longest, so: 3 bets @$2 each for $6 total; Since a 30-1 pays $62 for each $2 bet, the combined projected winnings would be $186.
3. Now calculate the other 2 runners by dividing this number $186 by what the others would pay, $186 divided by $42 (for the 20-1), and $186 divided by $22 (for the 10-1): see below:

$186 divided by $62 = (3) $2 bets
$186 divided by $42 = (4.4) $2 bets
$186 divided by $22 = (8.4) $2 bets

4. Now add up the total number of $2 bets to arrive at the total amount wagered...in this case, 3 + 4.4 + 8.4 = 15.8 bets @ $2 each, that equals $32 (rounded up slightly).

5. Now subtract the amount wagered in bets by the projected amount of winnings...in this case $186-$32=$154. This is your profit amount.

6. Then, divide the profit amount by the amount bet...in this case $154 divided by $32 = 4.81 This is your profit Rate.

7. Finally, multiply profit Rate by 100 to arrive at Profit Percentage:
4.81 x 100 = 481% ROI

Most examples using 3 lower odds horses will be much lower...and anything above 50% ROI would be Playable.

Nitro, please review this and let me know if I have this process correct, thanks.

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 12-17-2018 at 05:04 PM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 05:11 PM   #201
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
Ok, I think I understand what is being done here...so in simpler terms

1. Pick 3 horses (example, 10-1, 20-1, 30-1)
2. Take the longest odds horse and assign an arbitrary number of bets to it, then calculate the return....the 30-1 is longest, so: 3 bets @$2 each for $6 total; Since a 30-1 pays $62 for each $2 bet, the combined projected winnings would be $186.
3. Now calculate the other 2 runners by dividing this number $186 by what the others would pay, $186 divided by $42 (for the 20-1), and $186 divided by $22 (for the 10-1): see below:

$186 divided by $62 = (3) $2 bets
$186 divided by $42 = (4.4) $2 bets
$186 divided by $22 = (8.4) $2 bets

4. Now add up the total number of $2 bets to arrive at the total amount wagered...in this case, 3 + 4.4 + 8.4 = 15.8 bets @ $2 each, that equals $32 (rounded up slightly).

5. Now subtract the amount wagered in bets by the projected amount of winnings...in this case $186-$32=$154. This is your profit amount.

6. Then, divide the profit amount by the amount bet...in this case $154 divided by $32 = 4.81 This is your profit Rate.

7. Finally, multiply profit Rate by 100 to arrive at Profit Percentage:
4.81 x 100 = 481% ROI

Most examples using 3 lower odds horses will be much lower...and anything above 50% ROI would be Playable.

Nitro, please review this and let me know if I have this process correct, thanks.
I’m not sure how your applying all that math to something that’s very simple when using a Dutch Win calculator.
It functions extremely fast even when making minor changes to the odds as they occur.
Not only does it give you the immediate Profit margin, but also how much to bet on each entry in order to generate the same $return.
In your extreme example: . Pick 3 horses (example, 10-1, 20-1, 30-1)
Code:

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
10.0	20.0	30.0	BET	PRF	
$22	$42	$62			
$62	$32	$22	$116	$566	486%
$682	$682	$682			
Of course the idea is to have the ability to select the right 3 entries to Dutch.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 05:33 PM   #202
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I’m not sure how your applying all that math to something that’s very simple when using a Dutch Win calculator.
It functions extremely fast even when making minor changes to the odds as they occur.
Not only does it give you the immediate Profit margin, but also how much to bet on each entry in order to generate the same $return.
In your extreme example: . Pick 3 horses (example, 10-1, 20-1, 30-1)
Code:

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
10.0	20.0	30.0	BET	PRF	
$22	$42	$62			
$62	$32	$22	$116	$566	486%
$682	$682	$682			
Of course the idea is to have the ability to select the right 3 entries to Dutch.
I was just attempting to figure out what the Dutch calculator is doing so that I could do it manually and also just to understand HOW to do it...it looks like my method and math are correct because the calculator arrived at the same final Profit Percentage number (adjusting for rounding variations)...

Can you post a Dutching calculator website from the web that works for you well...thanks.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 07:14 PM   #203
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
Can you post a Dutching calculator website from the web that works for you well...thanks.
This a Dutching Calculator that a friend of mine developed some ago that I previously posted on PA.
Attached Files
File Type: xls AAA-Dutching-2or3.xls (18.0 KB, 12 views)
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 07:32 PM   #204
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
This a Dutching Calculator that a friend of mine developed some ago that I previously posted on PA.
Was hoping for something that we could use where we could input our choices and the bot would crunch the calc...should I just search the net myself....?
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 08:53 PM   #205
woodbinepmi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,782
Dutching Calculator for three entries.

http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/d...calculator.asp
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
woodbinepmi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 09:03 PM   #206
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
Was hoping for something that we could use where we could input our choices and the bot would crunch the calc...should I just search the net myself....?
I’m not sure what you mean by “input our choices”. Because once you have your 2 or 3 choices all you have to do is input their odds (in decimal form) from low to high (left to right) and the calculator does all the rest. Of course there are other Dutch calculators out there, but I believe in the old “KISS” principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid)
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 09:48 PM   #207
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Dutching Calculator for three entries.

http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/d...calculator.asp
Perfect thank you so much..!
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 09:52 PM   #208
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I’m not sure what you mean by “input our choices”. Because once you have your 2 or 3 choices all you have to do is input their odds (in decimal form) from low to high (left to right) and the calculator does all the rest. Of course there are other Dutch calculators out there, but I believe in the old “KISS” principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid)
It was just that the attached file you linked didn’t have functionality, at least not with my device...but we have a link now..thanks Nitro anyway.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2018, 10:31 PM   #209
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
It was just that the attached file you linked didn’t have functionality, at least not with my device...but we have a link now..thanks Nitro anyway.
Well what can I tell you. If you don't have MS Excel it won't load.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-18-2018, 07:20 PM   #210
woodbinepmi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,782
Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 19, 2018… 30th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 68 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of Rain Wind: ESE 5 to 10mph

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15am PT. Rail: Course AWT, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181219_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Mi Blanco (9-5) Picks up The Magic Man for the ride, but this runner is still winless after 18 races, 9 at this class level and 8 on the dirt. Also, his trainer is 3 for 101 this year so far and is breaking from the 9 post with a very short run into the first turn.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 164 (Winners: 3rd & 12th, Second: 5th & 10th)
Race 4 Bullish Brother (20-1)

Race *781 (Winners: 1st, 2nd & 5th, Second: 3rd & 4th)
Race 7 Jolly Gene (35-1)

Race 170 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, Second: 7th)
Race 7 Fight Hero (9-2)
Race 7 Calculation (6-1)

Race 198 (Winners: 6th & 9th, Second: 10th)
Race 8 Strathclyde (7-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for sloppy going:
Race 2 Star Superior (9-1)
Race 3 Good Fit (12-1)
Race 5 Golden Effort (9-1)
Race 8 Goldie Flanker (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
None

Horses for courses running today:
Race 6 Willie Way (14-1)
Race 7 Fight Hero (9-2)
Race 7 Perpetual Treasure (24-1)
Race 8 Team Fortune (10-1)

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
Race 7 Jolly Banner (19-1)

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 6 Sky Melody (3-1) In his first race since September when he was on the Vet’s list for a lame right front leg, he was bet down as the 7-2 betting choice. Raced 2 wide in the first turn, at the 450 metre mark Purton asked for his run and he responded well but was blocked when entering the stretch, then at the 220 point the tiring front runner Sichuan Boss was beginning to back up, Zac had to stand up on him taking all his momentum away, still with nowhere to run Zac wrapped up on him and let him gallop out the final 150 metres. Bug-boy Ho picks up the mount tonight due to Purton’s suspension and draws the rail for his first try on the dirt.

Past watch list runners running today:
None

Key Plays:
Race 6 Sky Melody (3-1)
Race 8 Raging Blitzkrieg (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 5 Pakistan Baby (12-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
woodbinepmi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.