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Old 12-18-2018, 11:14 PM   #211
Nitro
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Cool HONG KONG – SHA TIN WED 12/19/18

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting some pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There will 8 races at Sha Tin ALL on the Dirt: (from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class2, (2)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (2)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for all these races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but these selections generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!


R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D….….7-1-4 W/ 3-6-5 ….…….6.15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)D…….….. 9-5-1 W/ 3-5-12 …….…6:45 AM EST –

R#3 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D……..9-4-3 W/ 6-2-7 ..........7.15 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..…....10-2-1 W/ 8-6-4 ……...7:45 AM EST –

R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)D………..…5-3-11 W/ 1-9-10 ……....8:20 AM EST –

R#6 - 1800M C3 (9F)D……..…..12-2-3 W/ 7-6-5 ….....…8:50 AM EST –

R#7 – 1200M C2 (6F)D……..…..1-8-7 W/ 5-4-10 ........9:20 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)D………...10-2-6 W/ 8-1-11 …..…9:55 AM EST
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Old 12-19-2018, 11:25 AM   #212
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Quote:
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…….7-1-4 W/ 3-6-5 ….…….6.15 AM EST –
7-8-3-1 – Dutch Win 65% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)D……….. 9-5-1 W/ 3-5-12 …….…6:45 AM EST –
3-9-12-6 – Dutch Loss 87% Profit Margin / $46.80 Quin & $685.60 Tri / All of that one!

Quote:
R#3 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D……..9-4-3 W/ 6-2-7 ..........7.15 AM EST
-
5-6-10-9 – Dutch Loss 89% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..….....10-2-1 W/ 8-6-4 ……...7:45 AM EST –
8-2-10-3 – Dutch Loss 45% Profit Margin - Passed /$150.50 Quin & $1056.00 Tri / All of that one!
Quote:
R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)D……….…5-3-11 W/ 1-9-10 ……...8:20 AM EST –
9-7-6-11 – Dutch Loss 60% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#6 - 1800M C3 (9F)D…….…..12-2-7 W/ 3-6-5 …..…8:50 AM EST –
9-4-8-7 – Dutch Loss 36% Profit Margin - Passed

Quote:
R#7 – 1200M C2 (6F)D…….…..1-8-7 W/ 5-4-10 ........9:20 AM EST –
7-9-10-1 – Dutch Win 87% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)D………...10-2-6 W/ 8-1-11 …..…9:55 AM EST
2-11-4-8 – Dutch Win 84% Profit Margin /$68.80 Quinella

A half way decent day. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 0% and was a break-even day hitting 3 of the of 6 playable races. But using only the 2 Top Keys in each of the 8 races with the others produced 3 Quinellas totaling $266.10 return for $192.00 bet. That $74.10 equates to a 38% Profit margin.
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Old 12-20-2018, 03:45 PM   #213
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Have you eliminated the superfecta from your betting options? Didn't you used to monitor that also?
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Old 12-20-2018, 04:23 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
Have you eliminated the superfecta from your betting options? Didn't you used to monitor that also?
Even though the posted selections will occasionally produce the HK Quartet (or Superfecta), since they don’t offer it as a bet here in the States I figured why mention it. But I do still personally monitor it, just for my own satisfaction.
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Old 12-22-2018, 12:37 PM   #215
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 23, 2018… 31strace meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 72 Degrees Cloudy 70% of rain. Wind: NNE 10 to 20mph

Post time: 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181223_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 Harmony Victory (2-1) Badel had to get to his bottom last out and that with the aid of a closing track bias that day, draws a tougher field today.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 091 (Winners: 3rd & 5th, Second: 7th)
Race 6 Blizzing Away (42-1)

Race 206 (Winners: 3rd & 8th, Second: 10th)
Race 6 Lucky Guy (6-1)
Race 8 Victory Machine (8-1)
Race 8 Kasi Farasi (9-2)
Race 10 Winning Endeavour (17-1)
Race 10 King Opie (5-1)

Race 107 (Winners: 3rd, 6th, 9th & 10th)
Race 8 Lucky Hero (16-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 Super Chic (9-2)
Race 8 Victory Machine (8-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 4 Charity Grand (15-1)
Race 5 Flame Lily (4-1)
Race 7 Glorious Artist (8-1)
Race 10 King Opie (5-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 9 Bravo Watchman (9-1)
Race 9 Styling City (8-5)
Race 9 Lean Perfection (7-1)

Distance specialists running today:
Race 1 Happy Sound (8-1)
Race 9 Moment Of Power (27-1)

Class specialists running today:
Race 7 Dinozzo (13-1)

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 4 Good For You (7-1) Drew the United States representative in the IJC Javier Castellano for the ride, he drifted to his left as soon as the gates opened bumping Namjong Invincible pretty hard. Settled mid-pack two wide in the first turn while chasing the lightweight eventual winner Glory Star, in the far turn moved to the three path without any cover. Closed on the winner without being asked except a few crosses thrown at him, at the 100 metre mark Javier finally went to the stick but was unable to chase him down, beat the third place finisher by 3 lenghts. Doesn’t have the best of record at Sha Tin but love the price they are offering him at.

Race 6 What A Legend (5-2) In his debut race was caught looking to his left at the moment the gates opened costing him a couple lengths to the field, responded well when asked to run while racing in the middle of the track without any cover. Finished a very game second beaten by a half-length to the first time starter out of the Tony Cruz barn Multimillion who was bet down as the heavy favourite, he galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Race 6 Tornado Twist (5-2) First time starter for John Size was unlucky at the draw catching the 11 post with the short run to the half turn at the Valley. He broke a length slow forcing Sam to take him to the rear of the pack, soon afterwards became a little rank and took Clipperton a while to settle him down. Raced three wide in the turn then drifted to the six path entering the stretch and came running all the while on his wrong lead. Hopefully he’ll get a better draw and with Moreira riding all of Size’s runners he should get a better ride.

Race 7 Dark Dream (5-2) In his first race in Hong Kong after winning 4 races out of 10 and 5 seconds in Australia for the frankie Lor barn. He drew the 12 post in a very tough Class 2 race and was bet down to 4-1 as the second betting choice in a field of 14. Was forwardly placed early on but Zac being forced to run wide down the backside, then just before the turn he was forced to be taken up when the leaders put on the brakes and almost ran up onto the eventual winner Ensayahable who was racing just in front of him. Zac angled him out to the 5 path entering the stretch for clear running room, closed well in the stretch only get beat by a long neck in a six horse blanket finish.

Race 10 Good Beauty (9-2) was coming out a hard fought win at this class level outrunning Blitzing to the wire. Was his typical slow away from the starting gate, settled mid-pack while racing closest to the rail, was moving to the leaders at the 180 metre mark but a tiring My Chance drifted out into his path and stopped his momentum. He quickly regathered himself but all the while that was going on Fantastic Feeling was making his winning move.


Past watch list runners running today:
Race 5 Picken (7-2)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Good For You (7-1)
Race 6 What A Legend (5-2)
Race 10 Good Beauty (9-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 Po Ching Treasure (15-1)
Race 8 Loving A Boom (16-1)
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:14 PM   #216
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 12/23/18

R#1 - 1000M C5 (5F)T……..….. 4-1-11 W/ 8-2-5 ….…...11:30 PM EST –

R#2 - 2000M C4 (10F)T……….… 4-1-7 W/ 2-10-6 …….…12:00 AM EST –

R#3 – 1400M C6R(7F)T…..…… 1-2-3 W/ 6-4 .......12:30 AM EST -

R#4 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……..….. 1-2-8 W/ 11-10-4 ….....1:00 AM EST –

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……….… 1-4-7 W/ 14-3-10 ….....1:50 AM EST –

Last edited by Nitro; 12-22-2018 at 11:20 PM.
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:19 PM   #217
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looks strong here.
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:37 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
looks strong here.

I'm boxing the entire field.

I'lll come back later to tell you I won everything.
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:42 PM   #219
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R#1 - 1000M C5 (5F)T……..….. 4-1-11 W/ 8-2-5 ….…...11:30 PM EST –
1-9-5-10– Dutch Win 55% Margin /
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:43 PM   #220
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looks strong here.
Sure does!
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Old 12-22-2018, 11:53 PM   #221
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Sure does!

TY.

Race 2:



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Old 12-22-2018, 11:56 PM   #222
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 12/23/18

R#6 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……..….. 1-6-10 W/ 14-4-8 ……..2:25 AM EST – .

R#7 – 2000M C2 (10F)T……..….. 6-5-1 W/ 4-2 ......2:55 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T..….… 8-5-11 W/ 9-3-14 ………3:25 AM EST –

R#9 - 1000M C2 (5F)T.…….…. 6-2-10 W/ 1-12-11 ….….4:00 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T......... 6-1-2 W/ 13-8-3 ….….4:35 AM EST –
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Old 12-23-2018, 12:08 AM   #223
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R#2 - 2000M C4 (10F)T……….… 4-1-7 W/ 2-10-6 …….…12:00 AM EST –
4-5-3-6– BIG Dutch Win 127% Margin /
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Old 12-23-2018, 12:12 AM   #224
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4-5-3-6– BIG Dutch Win 127% Margin /

"this means good"
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Old 12-23-2018, 12:43 AM   #225
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R#3 – 1400M C6R(7F)T…..…… 1-2-3 W/ 6-4 .......12:30 AM EST -
1-6-7-2– Dutch Win 0% Profit Margin/Passed – $19.80 Quinella
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