2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2200M C4 (11F)T………. 1-4-5 W/ 7----- ….…...6:15 AM EST –

4-5-6-3– Dutch Win 15% Margin/Passed – $17.50 Quinella

R#2 - 1000M C5 (5F)T……….… 3-1-4 W/ 2-6-8 – substitution w/#4 due to late action …….…6:45 AM EST –

4-10-5-3– Dutch Win 61% Margin /

R#3 – 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…..… 6-4-8 W/ 3-7-1 .......7:15 AM EST -

8-7-9-4– Dutch Win 15% Margin/Passed – $65.00 Quinella

R#4 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…..… 5-8-6 W/ 4-3-2 substitution w/#6 due to late action - ….....7:45 AM EST –

6-1-9-4– Dutch Win 223% Margin /

R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)T.……….… 2-1-4 W/ 11-9-5 ….....8:15 AM EST –

1-8-6-2– Dutch Win 159% Margin /

**Dutch Win betting Quota reached hitting 3 of the first 6 playable races.

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….. 1-5-10 W/ 4-11-3 - #5 was an obvious typo @ 158/1 should have been #7 @ 3.2/1 favorite ……..8:45 AM EST –

7-10-12-1– Dutch Win 27% Margin/Passed –

R#7 – 1200M C3 (6F)T……..….. 4-2-6 W/ 12-1-8 ......9:15 AM EST –

10-9-8-11– Dutch Loss 118% Margin/Passed –

R#8 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..….. 2-3-8 W/ 5-9-7 ………9:50 AM EST –

5-2-11-3– Dutch Loss 45% Margin/Passed – $110.00 Quinella

It was another very profitable card. The Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 146% and was hit from the first 3 of 6 playable races.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. January 20, 2019… 39th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 72 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NNE 5 to 10mph

Post time: 12pm ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190120_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Picken (even) Has won 2 in a row but was all out to get up in his last after going three wide in the turn without any cover, now he picks up 8 more pounds and drew an outside post again, playing he comes up empty in here down the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 268 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 7th)
Race 1 Sam’s Love (17-1)

Race 238 (Winners: 4th, 7th & 12th)
Race 3 Ho Ho Khan (5-2)

Race 178 (Winners: 2nd & 9th, Second: 6th)
Race 8 Cerefino (38-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 8 Fairy Twins (30-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 1 Sam’s Love (17-1)
Race 2 Flame Lilly (3-1)
Race 2 I Do (2-1)
Race 2 Gorgeous Again (43-1)
Race 3 Mongolian King (10-1)
Race 5 Beat The Clock (5-2)
Race 7 Conte (9-2)
Race 10 Taking Aim (4-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 5 Mr Stunning (8-5)
Race 5 Styling City (9-1)
Race 7 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 7 Conte (9-2)

Distance specialists running today:
None

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 2 I Do (2-1) He ran an even sixth in his debut on the dirt while going off at 186-1 for So, somebody saw something in him with leading rider Purton picking up the mount and was bet down to 7-2 (they love to bet riders in Hong Kong). He was at least three lengths slow out of the gate to the field, due to the slow beginning Zac had nothing else to do but settle him in the back third of the field. Heading into the turn Purton moved him to the three path and began to try and to make up some of the lost ground up at the start. With his momentum carrying him to the six path entering the stretch, he finished very well in the stretch only losing second place by a head while the winner was the heavy favourite Pearl Champion who was not going to be beat that day.

Race 4 Ezra (11-1) First time starter for the Millard barn was able to gain the services of second leading rider Teetan for the run. Was a step slow from the gate then was bumped pretty good by Have Fun Together, then 200 metres from the gate was forced to be taken up losing at least a couple lengths to the field and was forced to go three wide in the turn without any cover, he closed well in the stretch without ever having a chance to catch the big first time winner Invincible Missile.

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 9 Marzouq (14-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 Super Giant (9-2)
Race 10 Taking Aim (4-1)


Longshots:
Race 1 Khaki (14-1)
Race 4 Ezra (11-1)
Race 8 Happy Victory (11-1)
Race 9 Marzouq (14-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 6 to be run on Turf and 4 on the Dirt: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-GR1, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 1-7-4 W/ 6-11-13 …...12:00 PM EST –

R#2 - 1600M C4 (8F)T….… 11-3-4 W/ 12-13-21 …12:30 AM EST –

R#3 – 1800M C2 (9F)T……. 5-9-3 W/ 4-1-2 .......1:00 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….. 4-2-7 W/ 9-5-10 ….....1:30 AM EST –

R#5 - 1200M G1 (6F)T.….. 1-3-2 W/ 5-4----- …....2:00 AM EST –

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……. 6-8-10 W/ 5-4-14 ……..2:35 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1600M G1 (8F)T..... 1-4-6 W/ 2------- .....3:05 AM EST –

R#8 - 1000M C3 (5F)T...… 1-3-6 W/ 10-8-4 ………3:40 AM EST –

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.……. 7-4-1 W/ 5-3-11 ….….4:15 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T.... 5-11-8 W/ 10-6-13 …..4:50 AM EST –

[Ramblin]

Good luck!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Good luck!

Thanks Ramblin! GL to you also!
I have a good feeling about this morning's card.

[VigorsTheGrey]

R1

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 2-7-4 W/ 6-11-13 …...12:00 PM EST

Typo in the 1st

[VigorsTheGrey]

R1


Sure looked like a dead heat...there was no margin in the photo for sure...

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 2-7-4 W/ 6-11-13 ….…...12:00 PM EST –

14-2-11-3– Dutch Loss 48% Profit Margin - Passed /

[Ramblin]

R#2 - 1600M C4 (8F)T….… 11-3-4 W/ 12-13-21 …12:30 AM EST –

21 ???

[VigorsTheGrey]

R2
w

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

R#2 - 1600M C4 (8F)T….… 11-3-4 W/ 12-13-21 …12:30 AM EST –

21 ???

21 should be #2

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1600M C4 (8F)T….… 11-3-4 W/ 12-13-2 …….…12:30 AM EST –

2-4-11-5– Dutch Loss 75% Profit Margin / $39.70 Quinella & $1276.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

[Hypnotist1]

Nitro. Can you explain your trifecta betting structure please

Thank you

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#3 – 1800M C2 (9F)T……. 5-9-3 W/ 4-1-6 .......1:00 AM EST -