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Old 11-12-2018, 09:23 AM   #76
Hypnotist1
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RACE 6 HK 11/10/18

NITRO

I HAVE 7 8 14 4 BUT THE 3 IS ONLY BET LATE LAST MINUTE IN THE SHOW POOL ONLY

CAN WE DISCUSS HOW YOU HAVE THE 3 RANKED 4?

I HAVE THE 3 OUTSIDE MY TOP 5 SO I WOULD HAVE MISS THE TRI BUT HAD WINNER AND QUIN JUST LIKE YOU

THANK YOU
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:23 PM   #77
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 14, 2018 20th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 72 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of Rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181114_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 Bigwood (3-1) Is trying the Valley for the first time and with him never showing any tactical speed and breaking from the rail he’ll most likely have to swing wide into the stretch and I am playing that he will run out of room at the wire.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 087 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 4th)
Race 4 Open House (18-1)

Race 060 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, Second: 4th, Class 3 race)
Race 8 Land Grant (11-1)

Race 107 (Winners: 3rd, 9th & 10th, Class 3 race)
Race 8 Red Warrior (even)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Trendiful (8-5)
Race 6 Back In Black (20-1)
Race 7 Namjong Plus (7-1)
Race 8 Fast Most Furious (7-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Multimax (7-1)
Race 6 Country Star (3-5)
Race 7 Brave Legend (6-1)
Race 8 Super Chic (12-1)
Race 8 Red Warrior (even)


Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Namjong Plus (7-1)
Race 8 Packing Dragon (19-1)
Race 8 Red Warrior (even)
Race 8 Pretty Bauhinia (17-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 6 Country Star (3-5)

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 3 Mr Right (7-2)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Champion Supreme (7-5) Went off at 10-1 in his debut which is surprising considering he’s out of the Casper Fownes’ barn at the Valley and drew leading rider Zac Purton for the trip, the odds may have been at that level due to him drawing the 10 hole for the 1000 metre sprint. He broke a step slow which allowed Power Man in hole 9 and Lunar Zephyr gate 11 to come together and forced Zac to take back and race from the rear afterwards, he started running half-way in the turn and corned the sharp turn into the stretch very well considering it was his debut at the Valley after most of his barrier trials were at Sha Tin and Conghua which have large sweeping turns. Was gaining on the leaders in the stretch without being asked by Purton but was forced to take up at the 70 metre mark when Gentle Breeze came into his path while he was looking for running room himself, was wrapped up on afterwards losing by only 2 lengths without being hit only once in the stretch. He was allowed to gallop out after the wire which is very unusual with Purton on, he likes to pull them up as soon as possible after the wire. Gets a much better draw for today’s race and should improve out of the gate with the experience of having a go under his belt.

Race 6 Back In Black (20-1) In his first race after being away from the track in four months, he was bet down to the 7-2 third choice, he broke a step slow out of gate 3 then was forced to be taken up slightly when Iron Boy and Green Luck came together afterwards, had to be taken up again in the short turn on the backside losing at least another length. Raced 2 wide in the turn then moved to the middle of the track entering the stretch and started to make up ground on the leaders but flattened out at the 70 metre mark looked as if the lengthy layoff took its effect, was allowed to gallop out after Ho saw that it was useless to get into him. Change of rider to Schofield may help matters but drawing the 10 hole may offset that and draws a real nice runner from the John Size barn in Country Star.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 7 Brave Legend (6-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Champion Supreme (7-5)
Race 7 Brave Legend (6-1)


Longshots:
Race 6 Back In Black (20-1)
Race 8 Super Chic (12-1)
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:59 PM   #78
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypnotist1 View Post
NITRO

MY TOTE BOARD PICKS WERE

14 7 8 10 ALL OF THAT ONE AS WELL

I BE GLAD TO SHOW YOU SCREEN SHOTS IF YOU LIKE
Check your Private Messages!
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Old 11-14-2018, 01:25 AM   #79
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY WED 11/14/18

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting some pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There will 8 races at Happy Valley ALL on the Turf: (from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class2, (2)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (2)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for all these races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but these selections generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T.....…6-10-11 W/ 4-1-2 ….….6:15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T…........4-11-12 W/ 5-9-3 …....…6:45 AM EST –

R#3 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….......1-4-2 W/ 8-9-12 ........7:15 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…...…...7-2-1 W/ 8-4-3 …..........7:45 AM EST –

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....…5-1-11 W/ 8-2-3 ….........8:15 AM EST –

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……......3-6-8 W/ 11-4-7 ….....…8:45 AM EST –

R#7 – 1800M C3 (9F)T….........6-1-2 W/ 4-12-5 .........9:15 AM EST –

R#8 - 1650M C2 (8.25F)T.......8-3-1 W/ 5-4-7 ….....…9:50 AM EST –
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Old 11-14-2018, 11:18 AM   #80
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Happy Valley WED 11/14/18 - RESULTS

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T.....…6-10-11 W/ 4-1-2 ….….6:15 AM EST –
11-10-2-7 – Big Dutch Win 130% Margin – $52.10 Quinella & $840.80 Triple

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T…........4-11-12 W/ 5-9-3 …....…6:45 AM EST –
12-9-3-4 – Dutch Win 28% Margin (Passed) – $160.10 Quinella & $4,749.60 Triple

R#3 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….......1-4-2 W/ 8-9-12 ........7:15 AM EST -
4-3-2-1 – Big Dutch Win 95% Margin –

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…...…...7-2-1 W/ 8-4-3 …..........7:45 AM EST –
5-3-2-7 – Dutch Loss 27% Margin (Passed) –

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....…5-1-11 W/ 8-2-3 ….........8:15 AM EST –
5-2-3-10 – Dutch Win 54% Margin – $84.90 Quinella & $562.00 Triple

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……......3-6-8 W/ 11-4-7 ….....…8:45 AM EST –
12-3-5-8 – Dutch Loss 17% Margin (Passed)
–

R#7 – 1800M C3 (9F)T….........6-1-2 W/ 4-12-5 .........9:15 AM EST –
6-2-8-5 – Big Dutch Win 113% Margin – $29.20 Quinella

R#8 - 1650M C2 (8.25F)T.......8-3-1 W/ 5-4-7 ….....…9:50 AM EST –
6-5-8-4 – Dutch Loss 35% Margin (Passed) –

Another fun and profitable day at Happy Valley!
Hitting all 4 of the playable Dutch Win bets provided an O.A. Profit Margin of 98% and also included some really nice Vertical exotics!
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Old 11-17-2018, 05:23 PM   #81
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 18, 2018 21st race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of Rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181118_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 Elusive State (2-1) Won for fun to carry the streak to three in a row all the while running against a speed favouring track that night, but did beat his next rival who had ran into serious trouble (#1 in here Hang’s Decision) and now is picking up an extra 14 pounds and draws the 12 gate with the short run to the first turn, playing the run ends here.


Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 099 (Winners: 2nd & 12th, Second: 11th)
Race 9 Pick Number One (14-1)

Race 060 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, Second: 4th)
Race 10 Villa Fionn (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Good Fit (26-1)
Race 3 Remarkable (13-1)
Race 5 Victory Boys (4-1)
Race 8 Hot King Prawn (6-5)


Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Elusive State (2-1)
Race 4 Triumphant Jewel (6-1)
Race 5 Victory Boys (4-1)
Race 6 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 6 Pingwu Spark (24-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)
Race 7 Time Warp (5-1)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 Remarkable (13-1)
Race 4 Styling City (8-5)
Race 6 Pingwu Spark (24-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)
Race 7 Werther (7-1)
Race 7 Glorious Forever (6-5)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)
Race 8 Mr Stunning (4-1)
Race 8 Beat The Clock (10-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Styling City (8-5)
Race 6 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)
Race 8 Mr Stunning (4-1)
Race 8 Beat The Clock (10-1)
Race 8 Fifty Fifty (10-1)
Race 8 Hot King Prawn (6-5)


Class specialists running tonight:
None


Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Pikachu (11-1) Went off at huge odds of 63-1 and drew a nice runner in Glorious Forever who has since come back and finished second in a Grade III race. Was pinched back at the start losing a length to the field, soon recovered and settled a couple lengths off the favourite winner down the backside, made a slight run at him but never was able to head him. Finished a couple lengths in front of the third place runner General Sherman, galloped out past the wire in hand.

Race 6 Singapore Sling (5-1) Drew a tough field with the highest handicap on the track Beauty Generation in it for his first out in almost six months. He broke well and Schofield placed him in his usual running position mid-pack stalking the heavy favourite Beauty Generation who was in an early duel with the front running type Time Warp (who has since come back and won his next out). After racing two wide in the turn Chad was looking for running room but was stuck behind the duelers and now Pakistan Star who started his run, at the 300 metre mark an opening outside Pakistan Star became available and with his quick turn of foot he proceeded to chase the big horse down, he just missed him by less than ½ length at the wire. Draws the rail today with pretty much the same type of field but is losing a large weight allowance he had in that race today, he’s picking up 6 pounds while the chalk is carrying 5 less.

Race 10 Noble Steed (2-1) Settled mid-pack soon after the start while saving ground on the rail, in the stretch he tried to get thru but at the 300 metre mark was forced to be taken up while looking for running room. After that he was blocked and was taken up again with 150 metres to go, finally when room became available he closed on the leaders very well but the wire caught him first. He does eat some money, goes off as the favourite in most of his races and unfortunately doesn’t get up for it, today draws an outside post and gets the services of Moreira for the trip.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 10 Comfort Life (10-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 Singapore Sling (5-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 Regency Darling (13-1)
Race 5 Pikachu (11-1)
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:18 PM   #82
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SHA TIN

RACE 1:
11.5.1.12.4.3.10.14.9.7

VB = 11***
WB = 5

SWINGS:
11/5.1.12.4.3.10.14.9.7

The VB gets a good draw here and should be flying home.THE WIN BET was originally my BEST LS but I've changed that and will look for another BEST LS as the odds has been smashed by the HK millionaire computer geeks. Has the worst draw of all but will be flying home.Only a SMALL WB thou.

RACE 2:
13.11.4.3.2.6.9.7

SWINGS:
13.11.4.3.2.6.9.7

LS = 3/4/7

SPLIT 1 UNIT and back all 3 LS for a WIN.

NIGHTMARE race this...perhaps we go with some LS value here and punt them SMALL.

RACE 3:
12.3.1.9.10.2.8.6

DIFFICULT DIRT RACE...WE STAY OUT

RACE 4:
12.2.4.9.6.5.11

VB = 12*
LS = 5

Let's take a chance here.The 2 looks a very decent nag but our VB will be flying late...let's hope he can get there in time...no good thing thou.The LS is only weak coz he gets too far back but he should be flying home late

RACE 5:
4.5.12.9.1.3.6

VB = 4*/5*
LS = 9

SWINGS:
4.5.12.9.1.3.6

The 2 VBs are both decent prices and should both run decent races.I'm hoping PIKACHU can deliver. The LS is running 1st up from a rest....just a SMALL WIN BET on him will do.

RACE 6:
1.5.4.2.8.3

TB = 1*****

SWINGS:
1.5.4.2.8.3

The TB should be too good here.

RACE 7:
4.2.9.3.1.6

VB = 4***
WB = 3*

SWINGS:
4.2.9.3.1.6

The BIG RACE of the day.The VB will settle at thr back but will be FFFLLYYYING late on. We shout him home like theres no tmrw!!!!!The WB has alot going for him and should run a cracking race

RACE 8:
1.2.7.5.8.3

VB = 1***
1 WB = 2*

SWINGS:
1.2.7.5.8.3

The RACE OF THE DAY. Gonna be simply breathtaking.SHOUT THE VB home.The Win Bet MR STUNNING is our old fav of last season....in with a serious chance aswell.
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:30 PM   #83
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN - 11/18/18

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. To make things even more interesting J. Moreira is back riding on today’s card with a few live mounts.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 on Turf & 2 on Dirt: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-GR2 STK, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (2)-Class-4,

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis came up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……..….. 11-2-5 W/12-3-4 ….12:00 AM EST –

R#2 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D….… 11-1-9 W/ 13-2-6 …..…12:30 AM EST –

R#3 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D…..… 2-8-3 W/ 9-1-10 .......1:00 AM EST -

R#4 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……...….. 2-4-12 W/ 9-6-7 …......1:30 AM EST –

R#5 - 1800M C2 (9F)T.…..…..… 1-3-4 W/ 9-5-2 ….......2:00 AM EST –

R#6 - 1600M G2 (8F)T….....….. 1-5-6 W/ 4-2-- …...…..2:30 AM EST –

R#7 – 2000M G2 (10F)T…...….. 2-4-3 W/ 6-1-- .........3:05 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M G2 (6F)T….....…… 7-2-1 W/ 4-5--- ………3:40 AM EST –

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.……...…. 1-12-4 W/ 10-3-14 ….….4:15 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......... 1-4-11 W/ 2-5-13 …...….4:50 AM EST –

Last edited by Nitro; 11-17-2018 at 11:41 PM.
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:58 PM   #84
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Typo in the 1st.

R#1 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……..….. 11-1-5 W/12-3-4 ….12:00 AM EST –
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Old 11-18-2018, 12:12 AM   #85
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R#1 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……..….. 11-1-5 W/12-3-4 ….….12:00 AM EST –
5-11-14-12 – Dutch Win 59% Margin & $26.10 Quinella
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Old 11-18-2018, 12:38 AM   #86
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R#2 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)D…… 11-1-9 W/ 13-2-6 …..…12:30 AM EST –
3-13-1-12 – Dutch Loss 162% Profit Margin – No Action on the LS Winner
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Old 11-18-2018, 01:09 AM   #87
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R#3 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D….… 2-8-3 W/ 9-1-10 .......1:00 AM EST -
3-7-2-9 – Dutch Win 79% Profit Margin
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Old 11-18-2018, 01:38 AM   #88
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R#4 - 1000M C3 (5F)T……..….. 2-4-12 W/ 9-6-7 ….....1:30 AM EST
–
2-1-13-7 – Dutch Win 80% Profit Margin
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Old 11-18-2018, 02:17 AM   #89
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R#5 - 1800M C2 (9F)T.……..… 1-3-4 W/ 9-5-2 changed to 1-3-6 W/ 4-9-5 ….....2:00 AM EST –
6-3-7-1 – Dutch Win 25% Profit Margin – Passed
Winner got hit hard throughout the last 7 mins (7.2/1 to 3.7/1) and was subbed for #4 and #2 dropped - no action
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Old 11-18-2018, 02:44 AM   #90
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R#6 - 1600M G2 (8F)T…...….. 1-5-6 W/ 4-2-- ……..2:30 AM EST –
1-6-4-5 – Dutch Win 5% Profit Margin – Passed / $19.30 Quin & $112.00 Tri
Beauty Generation now owns the Track Record for the Mile - 1:32.64
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