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Old 08-21-2016, 04:34 PM   #76
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DMR 8/21/16 R4 DMR MILE-G2 200K, 1M TURF (3:33)

2 MIDNIGHT STORM 4-5
3 OHIO 5-1
1 OM 7-2
5 AMBITIOUS BREW 5-1

PICK 2 MIDNIGHT STORM (4-5)
When this guy is on, he is awfully good. Those last two wins look better now that the second place finisher in each of them won in a graded stakes in their next start. He was pressed hard by speedball Heart to Heart two back and still lasted. Think Om will really drive at him early.

VALUE 3 OHIO (5-1)
There is a real chance that the two inside may go hard at each other early and set fractions that will benefit those closing. This one was a 5-1 chance in the Eddie Read but never got into it. Works are very fast. There is more here.

A) 2,3
B) 1
C) 4,5
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Old 08-24-2016, 04:15 AM   #77
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8/24/16 DMR R1 STR ALLW 31K, 1M DIRT (2:00)

6 DESERT MADAM 5-2
1 TAKE IT EASYPLEASE 3-1
3 MARGIE’S MINUTE 5-1
4 PLASTERED 8-1

PICK: 6 DESERT MADAM (5-2)
The win last time out was even better than it may look. She dueled with 3 others on the early lead. She put them away and held off the closers with ease. Those 3 other speedy types made up the last 3 finish positions. It appears she’s really thriving with Bill Spawr.

VALUE: 3 MARGIE’S MINUTE (5-1)
Stalked the top choice two back but could not really make an impact. She didn’t break all that well in that race. Forget last on grass when facing males. Notice she outfinished a main foe in here three back. Hangs in there.

A) 6
B) 1,3,4
C) 2,7
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Old 08-25-2016, 05:34 AM   #78
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DMR 8/25/16 R1 OPT CLM 40K, 5F TURF (2:00)

8 STURDY ONE 4-1
5 LONGSTOCKING 7-2
2 TRYST 3-1
6 CUYATHY 10-1

PICK: 8 STURDY ONE (4-1)
Nosed out by Snow Cloud, who won in a big upset and came back to post another slight upset over a favored Euro shipper. She gets a perfect wide post to ease in to this. She is a nose away from being 2 for 2 on this grass course and at the distance. Stalks the pace.

VALUE: 6 CUYATHY (10-1)
Exits the same race as the top choice. Went off at 15-1, didn’t get out of the gate clean and pressed the pace. Blinkers come off in here. Works since last, w/out blinkers, have been sharp. Could be the pace setter here.

A) 2,5,8
B) 3,6
C) 7
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Old 08-25-2016, 11:38 AM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
DMR 8/25/16 R1 OPT CLM 40K, 5F TURF (2:00)

8 STURDY ONE 4-1
5 LONGSTOCKING 7-2
2 TRYST 3-1
6 CUYATHY 10-1

PICK: 8 STURDY ONE (4-1)
Nosed out by Snow Cloud, who won in a big upset and came back to post another slight upset over a favored Euro shipper. She gets a perfect wide post to ease in to this. She is a nose away from being 2 for 2 on this grass course and at the distance. Stalks the pace.

VALUE: 6 CUYATHY (10-1)
Exits the same race as the top choice. Went off at 15-1, didn’t get out of the gate clean and pressed the pace. Blinkers come off in here. Works since last, w/out blinkers, have been sharp. Could be the pace setter here.

A) 2,5,8
B) 3,6
C) 7
No Pearl de Vere in the top 4?
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Old 08-25-2016, 05:56 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
No Pearl de Vere in the top 4?
Should have had her in my top 1. Bad on my part. Wasn't convinced the time in her last race was legit. I was wrong!! It might make #1 WHISK in race 7 (3-1) worth a look as she was out of that same race.
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Old 08-26-2016, 05:42 PM   #81
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DMR 8/26 R1 MDN CLM 50K, 5.5F DIRT (3:30)

3 RIM DITCH 9-5
4 PACIFIC SONG 4-1
5 CAAN ME 4-1
1 MIKEYS GLORY 6-1

PICK: 3 RIM DITCH (9-5)
A lot is changing here. He gets blinkers on, a new, higher percentage rider and drops to mdn clm. Debut winner won 125k SA Juv next (then 2nd in the 100k Graduation). The winner of 2nd start came in out of a 3rd in a 100k stakes at OTP. Should wire them here.

VALUE: 4 PACIFIC SONG (4-1)
Claimed out of the debut where he closed in well for 3rd at 15-1. The winner of that race won back in opt clm. 4th dropped to md clm 35k and won. Could get a contested pace if both speeds go at it, setting up for late run.

A) 3
B) 4
C) 1,5,7,8
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Old 08-26-2016, 11:12 PM   #82
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3 Page analysis report for Saratoga (Travers Day), plus full cards for Del Mar and Canterbury at the link in the signature below.

DMR 8/27/16 R4 CLM 16K, 6.5F DIRT (3:30)

3 THUNDER BASIN 4-1
1 DREAM IT DO IT 5-2
4 MOOSE SKOWRON 12-1
8 REDNECK CRAZY 4-1

PICK: 3 THUNDER BASIN (4-1)
Just missed in last but the problem is it was all the way back in early January. Had a bad trip two back when bumped and steadied in there. If he comes back ready (clockers say he is working well), he should get a dream trip off of the cheap speed. Price will be ok.

VALUE: 4 MOOSE SKOWRON (12-1)
Claimed from D’Amato two back and tried the turf. He’s been bad in both turf starts so maybe they can be tossed. Was clipped and steadied two back as the favorite and eased in. Run 3 back might actually win this race.

A) 1,3,4 B) 6,8 C) 5,7,9
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Old 08-27-2016, 03:51 PM   #83
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SAR 8/27/16 RACE 12 BLST SPA-G2 400K, 1M 1/16 TURF (6:20)

7 ONUS 12-1
5 SENTIERO ITALIA 9-2
8 MISS TEMPLE CITY 2-1
3 LADY ELI 1-1

PICK: 7 ONUS (12-1)
She had to deal with run-off speed type Isabella Sings in the Diana. Their head to head duel took its toll on both of them. No such pace concerns here as she will be main speed from the start. While the target will be on Lady Eli, this one might just slip away on an easy lead. Top rider is awesome controlling the pace. She’s very live in this one.

VALUE: 5 SENTIERO ITALIA (9-2)
Loved the way she looked in her comeback race despite a stumble at the start. She is a multiple Grade 2 winner and was only 3 off of Lady Eli in the Belmont Oaks, race that was her first stakes try. Likely to be closest early to the top choice. Picks up the lead and wins if she falters.

A) 5,7,8
B) 3
C) 1,6
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Old 08-28-2016, 04:32 PM   #84
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DMR 8/28/16 R6 CLM 25K, 1M 1/8 TURF (4:33)

11 UNUSUAL FLEET 5-1
8 FREDDIES DREAM 9-2
6 MR T BIRD 8-1
5 INFINITE MAGIC 7-2

PICK: 11 UNUSUAL FLEET (5-1)
Also-eligible draws in and he comes in with a quick bullet work. Bejarano gets the call and he was aboard the last win for this one. Takes a slight drop in class here. The winner in last was a 50k dropper. Blinkers go on in here and he draws wide. Will be sent early.

VALUE: 6 MR T BIRD (8-1)
Was only 2 behind Freddies Dream 2 starts back. Notice how difficult it’s been for this deep closer to have to move into such slow early fractions in his last two starts. Gets a rider change. Might be pushed a bit sooner.

A) 6,8,11
B) 4,5,9
C) 1,3,7
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Old 08-31-2016, 01:07 AM   #85
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Special Woodbine analysis sheet for Wed, along with Saratoga and Del Mar at the link in the signature below

DMR 8/31/16 R1 MDN CLM 50K, 1M DIRT (2:00)

1 PATTIN FOR A DANCE 6-1
3 CALIFORNIASUMMER 9-5
4 LADY SOPHIA 6-1
2 CROWN ON TAP 15-1

PICK: 1 PATTIN FOR A DANCE (6-1)
Could not find any turf in the backbreeding and that it significant. If you can draw a line through the turf race, she fits in here. The 3, ML fav at 3-1, beat her by 17 lengths in the turf race. Assume she’s a dirt filly and going to focus on her strong finish in her last start.

VALUE: 2 CROWN ON TAP (15-1)
She is making her 2nd start for Desormeaux and stretches out to a mile here. She’s been outworked by the top choice in a few of her works but might prefer the distance. Plenty of drills since 1st start. Expect much better.

A) 1,3
B) 2,4,5
C) 6,7
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Old 09-01-2016, 05:52 AM   #86
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DMR 9/1/16 R1 STR ALLW 40K, 6.5F DIRT (2:00)

1 CONQUEST SO TRUE 6-1
6 HALO DARLIN 3-1
5 MARRIEDTOAMINISTER 5-2
2 GENEROUS POUR 4-1

PICK: 1 CONQUEST SO TRUE (6-1)
She was on the turf in last and didn’t run all that poorly at 9-1 but it’s unlikely the turf is her best surface. Back to dirt here. Run two back was very good. She went :45.2 for the half and hung in well for 2nd. Key race three back, many from there have won since then.

VALUE: 6 HALO DARLIN (3-1)
Tried a G1 in just her 2nd start but was killed by Songbird. Once she dropped to this level two back, she was sharp. A bit mystified by the lack of races since Nov. She’s only been out twice w/ layoffs. Sharp work on 8/16.

A) 1,6
B) 2,5
C) 3,4,7
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Old 09-02-2016, 07:37 AM   #87
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Saratoga, Del Mar and Canterbury Park for Friday, 9/2/16 full card analysis sheets are available at the link in the signature below

DMR 9/2/16 R1 MSW 60K, 1M TURF (3:30)

3 SHE’S GOT SYLE 3-1
5 SHEHASTHERITESTUFF 7-2
7 PRINCESS TIZNOW 5-1
6 HAUTE STYLE 8-1

PICK: 3 SHE’S GOT STYLE (3-1)
Hard to stress the importance of this jockey move to Desormeaux. This 5YO mare ran a big race at 55-1 in last after a poor break at the start. She’s half to 133k turfer Atta Boy Pete and 3/4 to 1.9M winner, Acclamation, who won 10 of 21 on turf (G1 Eddie Read).

VALUE: 6 HAUTE STYLE (8-1)
Seemed to be ready to fly in the lane 2 back at 18-1 but was steadied and lost a chance for better. Blinkers off in last but that didn’t work so they are back in here. This rider has been very good here. Decent drill since last.

A) 3,5
B) 6,7
C) 1,4,8
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Old 09-03-2016, 04:21 AM   #88
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Saratoga, Del Mar and Canterbury full card analysis for 9/3/16. Click the link in the signature.

DMR 9/3/16 R5 MSW 60K, 6.5F DIRT (4:02)

8 LITTLE NATI 6-1
9 GLORY AND POWER 20-1
10 VIVA VEGAS 3-1
1 LAKE TIME 8-1

PICK: 8 LITTLE NATI (6-1)
Trainer is sneaky w/ 2YO debut in MSW. He has 1 win (10%) and 5 in the money (50%) from 10 1st time 2YO’s in MSW. The works on all 10 of those starters were slow. These works are really fast. Clockers been impressed. Dam was a graded stakes winner. She looks very live today.

VALUE: 9 GLORY AND POWER (20-1)
Not sure if Lobo is really one that gears them up for their debut. But if this filly is well-meant here she stands a big shot. This female line produced 7 stakes winner in the 2nd generation, led by the great, Saint Liam. Clockers high on her workouts but might need one. Toss into exotics.

A) 8,9
B) 1,4,10
C) 2,3,5,6,7
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Old 09-04-2016, 03:44 AM   #89
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DMR 9/4/16 R5 CLM 16K, 6F DIRT (4:03)

4 PAPA’S MAGGIE 6-1
1 STAND BY FOR NEWS 7-2
5 FAITH PACER 6-1
11 NAZARETH 5-1

PICK: 4 PAPA’S MAGGIE (6-1)
Dropped to this level and was beaten by just a nose at 14-1 in a career best effort. She gets a nice post for her style and should be able to sit just off the speed here. Works are decent. Just worked heads up w/ Zip the Monkey, 2nd choice in the 40k 2nd race today. Should fire.

VALUE: 1 STAND BY FOR NEWS (7-2)
She has run well in her two starts in So. Cal. for Peter Miller. Dusted off an overmatched maiden field two back and hung in gamely at 5-2 for 2nd in last. The winner of that last race was dropping in from starter allw company in most recent start. Was well clear of 3rd there.

A) 1,4,5
B) 8,11
C) 2,6,12
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Old 09-05-2016, 09:56 AM   #90
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DMR 9/5/16 R1 CLM 8K, 6F DIRT (2:00)

2 NEXTDOORHEIGHBOR 5-2
1 PAT THE BEAR 9-2
12 SWISS CHEESE 15-1
11 PEACENIK 12-1

PICK: 2 NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (5-2)
Unlucky to lose on class drop at 6-1. Gets the run of the race pressing early. He looks tough.

VALUE: 12 SWISS CHEESE (15-1)

A) 2
B) 1,4,11,12
C) 5,6,10
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