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Old 08-14-2018, 01:04 PM   #286
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So we have a historical record of exactly where you were in 1973 when you arrived at work. All I'd need was where you started and I could tell you exactly how long it took you to get to work.

That's it. Just the lat/long of the starting gate and the final time. We could back it up and be dead on.

Just a concept.
And an interesting concept.

But... lots of data.

Quote:
So we have a historical record of exactly where you were
Well, I know I have a lot of historical data, but I'm not prepared to re-time every race based upon video.

Have I misunderstood?
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:55 PM   #287
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And an interesting concept.

But... lots of data.



Well, I know I have a lot of historical data, but I'm not prepared to re-time every race based upon video.

Have I misunderstood?
Oh yeah. no video. Unlike the Time Clock example where the person could have stopped for coffee on the way to work, here we have fixed finish point and fixed path. So if a race track clock gives 110.3 at the finish line. We only go back through the fixed course to EXACTLY where 6F is on GPS, and whatever time is left on the clock, + or - , would indicate the clock was started to early or to late.

We could do that at scale. Importing the data would take longer than the calculations.

Not sure about this, I'm dickin around with it, I'm kinda in middle of biz issue, but I am waiting for emails and calls so this distraction is good. Thank you! I need something to think about. $ on the line.
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Old 08-14-2018, 04:17 PM   #288
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And re-timing races is not meaningful. I just saw that TPD took the time to show Secretariat in 1973 vs American Pharaoh in 2015 and it triggered the previous idea.

Its based in the way time is calculated by lat/long lines.

Essentially the finish line at Saratoga has coordinates, 43.071011, -73.766647
( yes those are the real #"s) and real #'s where the 6F start line is.
43.073535, -73.767634

Fractions of a degree are equal to X seconds. or milliseconds. So since we have the ending and starting coordinates, and each has it own time, I'm theorizing we could re-time races based upon that. Only because we have a time stamp of exact date and time the race, we could go back to the atomic clock.

We know what time it really was *6 furlongs away from 43.071011, -73.766647
on January 10th, 2012.

I'm working on pool data and hope to share that with you and anybody else interested as well.
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Old 08-14-2018, 04:36 PM   #289
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Its based in the way time is calculated by lat/long lines.
1. Where will you get back data for this?

2. Do you believe that the key to winning is to have this information?
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Old 08-14-2018, 04:40 PM   #290
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And re-timing races is not meaningful.

Re: Wave ( doppler ) generated times , energy and pace data?
When looking at the images posted by the UK member, and examining their web site? Its more than meaningful. Its everything. Or soon will be.
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:18 PM   #291
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Finally, there is this...





This is absolutely unprecedented.

What does it mean?
It means that the days of just picking longshots with no regards for how strong the low-odds horses are or aren't and being competitive are pretty much over.

It means that if you are going into a race with an idea that sounds even remotely like, "I just pretend that all the horses under 8/1 are not in the race," you are done before you get started, because the low odds horses are going to pound you.

Permit me to give you some sobering stats:




Do you want to connect on 20/1 horses? They come up 2.69% of the time. That is once every 37 races.




What's that you say? You only play 8-horse fields and above?

Well, that will add a couple of points to your chances. You're now all the way up to 4.36%.

One of those occurs every 23 races. Hope you have the right horse in that race.

Let's be more realistic. (And back to all races again.)
86% of all winners are under 8/1.
79% of all winners are under 6/1.
70% of all winners are under 9/2.
61% of all winners are under 7/2.

What about 8+ horse fields?
81% of all winners are under 8/1.
73% of all winners are under 6/1.
63% of all winners are under 9/2.
53% of all winners are under 7/2.


So, with all this bad news, where is the good news?

That's coming as soon as I can get it written, which could take me a couple of hours.

Meanwhile, what do YOU think a GOOD answer could be?
Btw Dave, I think Dexter C. Hinton was directing this at you, based upon the numbers you presented to start the thread. That $40 horses occur at 2.67% rate in fields of 5 or more.


Quote:
Dexter C. Hinton
I have a database of 339,796 races from 01-01-2010 through 06-07-2018 (with a minimum field size of five (5)).

I ran a test for winners exceeding $ 19.99 and $ 41.99.

The results were:

44,976 winners exceed 19.99 or 13.23 %

11,697 winners exceed 41.99 or 3.44 %
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:36 PM   #292
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Yes, we have the same data.

I used a shorter sample because I was trying to show how things were changing.
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:41 PM   #293
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Yes, see that. I read everything you posted. You're saying Favorites are actually paying more, due to Whales identifying value in the RH or FH? iow's they are betting more 7-1's down to 4-1 as opposed to making 6/5's, go to 3/5?
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Old 08-14-2018, 07:00 PM   #294
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Yes, see that. I read everything you posted. You're saying Favorites are actually paying more, due to Whales identifying value in the RH or FH? iow's they are betting more 7-1's down to 4-1 as opposed to making 6/5's, go to 3/5?
That sounds correct.

What concerns me the most is the flattening of the $Nets.
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Old 08-14-2018, 07:17 PM   #295
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That sounds correct.

What concerns me the most is the flattening of the $Nets.
I went back and read your posts word by word... and its compelling for sure.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:02 AM   #296
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This is relevant and worthy. It indicates that Whale's account for ~18% of all monies bet, and the intelligent dollars wagered ,has doubled in the last 7 years.

$1.6-$1.9 Billion dollars a year being bet by CAWs ( whales )



Quote:
The highest rebates in the racing industry are currently reserved for the operators of computerized robotic wagering systems, which are sophisticated suites of software that analyze racing pools and then use direct links to the sport’s bet-processing networks to dump hundreds of bets into the pools at the last minute, a practice that can sometimes be responsible for large fluctuations in odds that show up after the starting gates have opened. According to the McKinsey analysis, the robotic systems now account for 16 percent to 19 percent of the roughly $11 billion in annual wagering on racing, double what McKinsey estimated as the market share of the programs in 2011.
https://www.drf.com/news/jockey-club...g-small-tracks
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:39 AM   #297
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This is relevant and worthy. It indicates that Whale's account for ~18% of all monies bet, and the intelligent dollars wagered ,has doubled in the last 7 years.

$1.6-$1.9 Billion dollars a year being bet by CAWs ( whales )

https://www.drf.com/news/jockey-club...g-small-tracks
Sounds a lot like the numbers I posted.

What a coincidence.
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Old 08-20-2018, 08:55 PM   #298
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A little history




year 2000 all races 59,342
>$19.99 8730 14.7%
>$41.99 2198 3.7%



year 2010 all races 48,657
>19.99 6,651 13.66%
>41.99 1,770 3.63%


year 2018 all races to 7/22 20,195
>19.99 2,512 12.4%
>41.99 617 3.06
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:35 PM   #299
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A little history

year 2000 all races 59,342
>$19.99 8730 14.7%
>$41.99 2198 3.7%



year 2010 all races 48,657
>19.99 6,651 13.66%
>41.99 1,770 3.63%


year 2018 all races to 7/22 20,195
>19.99 2,512 12.4%
>41.99 617 3.06
Good research.

In my studies, I removed winter racing (Nov-Jan) because I find it so different than the rest of the year.
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Old 08-20-2018, 10:14 PM   #300
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If everything stayed the same all the time it would make things so much easier
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