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Old 04-25-2018, 06:30 AM   #1
Ray2000
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Longshot for Wednesday

Buffalo Race 2 . . .#7 Er Monica-8/1 . . .Watch List pick from Apr 17

Key box Exacta with 5,8

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Old 04-25-2018, 09:20 AM   #2
pandy
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You have guts if you can bet a horse from post 7 at Buffalo. The win percentage is 5.6, pretty much an industry standard now. But Buffalo has a terrible inside bias, post 1 wins at 27%, which should be unaccepetable. If I was the GM or director of racing at Buffalo, I would not allow that type of bias, I would figure out how to change it.
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:48 AM   #3
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http://www.buffaloraceway.com/the-races/race-stats/
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Old 04-25-2018, 10:01 AM   #4
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buf has one of the better sites of the smaller tracks and a great vidieo also. but the % of winning favs is too high for me .by the way arent the worst horses supposed to be placed to the inside if so then rays horse should have a better chance than its post suggests happy handicapping
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Old 04-25-2018, 12:22 PM   #5
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46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.

It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.
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Old 04-25-2018, 02:23 PM   #6
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i think the tracks mgment is part to blame they would rather see the odds on favs. meaning more winners and more churn for them but the bottom line it comes from the owners of said tracks an most of them are casino minded only !
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Old 04-25-2018, 03:04 PM   #7
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I wish tracks would post ROI data for Drivers / Trainers / and Post Positions
Statsmaster at Trackmaster has ROIs for DR/TR but not post.

Here's what I have for Buffalo last year, not official.
Code:
 Post 	 	BR	PP1 	 PP2 	 PP3 	 PP4 	 PP5 	 PP6 	 PP7 	 PP8
Starts		BR	800	800	800	800	780	767	733	469

% Wins		BR	24%	16%	16%	18%	15%	8%	4%	3%

Dev from Exp* 	BR	81%	22%	22%	31%	12%	-37%	-68%	-74%
ROI		BR	0.75	0.80	0.72	1.03	0.77	0.67	0.52	0.43


*This is the Trackmaster number seen in the program beneath the Post number. 
It is the deviation from what a "non post biased" track should be, 
meaning in 8 horse fields, all posts should win 1/8th of the time.

The BR / BTVA numbers for the rail are the worst in the industry.
BR	81%
BTVA	97%
FHLD	62%
FLMD	17%
HAR	50%
LON	60%
MR	34%
NFLD	42%
STGA	57%
YR	47%
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Last edited by Ray2000; 04-25-2018 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 04-25-2018, 05:09 PM   #8
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Er Monica Scratched, something strange about this horse, back on watch list.

Instead go with Race 10

#1 Painter'S Edge-4/1 on top of 3,6,7,2,4 in the dime super

Good Luck All
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:56 PM   #9
sharkey11
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thanks ray for the post chart using that i grabed a 30-1 shot there seeing that the roi on the 4 was in the plus side thanks sir love those charts gl capping
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:09 PM   #10
Ray2000
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Glad you got it, sharkey!

10 race super was $1.00 . . 8-5-4-2 $9,569.00, and somebody had it.
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:49 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.

It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.
At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:15 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30 View Post
At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.
They're talented. Merriman does very well at the Meadows and now Wrenn is starting to make inroads at the Meadows. I think he won five races there one day last week. I'm a big fan of Wrenn, he has a lot of ability.
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