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Old 04-13-2018, 01:26 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by reckless View Post

-- And yes, tracks do run faster or slower at times, but rarely by the sharp variance we are told by the popular fig makers.
Look at Aqueduct over the winter, or SA the past year. It can and does happen even when rain isn't a factor.
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:57 PM   #17
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There were three.
I stand corrected. Thank you.

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As I've mentioned, Santa Anita has been much slower the past year than it usually is. Historical comparisons using raw times will be pretty useless IMO.
While I agree the track does seem slower, is it also possible the quality of competition isn't as good? I keep hearing about small field sizes at the track which can screw up the pace. Additionally, fields in many of the big races left a lot to be desired this meet.

For some reason, and perhaps coincidence only, the raw time in the Santa Anita Derby was a very strong predictor of Kentucky Derby performance over the past several decades. Horses that used the Santa Anita as final prep and crossed the finish line in under 148.0 were spotted wearing lots of roses in Kentucky while most of the others failed to bring home a trophy. Giacomo was one exception. Pioneerof the Nile came close, albeit against one of the weakest fields I can recall.
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Old 04-13-2018, 02:03 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I stand corrected. Thank you.



While I agree the track does seem slower, is it also possible the quality of competition isn't as good? I keep hearing about small field sizes at the track which can screw up the pace. Additionally, fields in many of the big races left a lot to be desired this meet.

For some reason, and perhaps coincidence only, the raw time in the Santa Anita Derby was a very strong predictor of Kentucky Derby performance over the past several decades. Horses that used the Santa Anita as final prep and crossed the finish line in under 148.0 were spotted wearing lots of roses in Kentucky while most of the others failed to bring home a trophy. Giacomo was one exception. Pioneerof the Nile came close, albeit against one of the weakest fields I can recall.

If the competition had somehow gotten worse, we'd be seeing that in shippers performing poorly in my opinion when compared to the odds. I haven't seen that at all with SoCal dirt horses.

Look at My Boy Jack and Instilled Regard, for example.
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Old 04-13-2018, 02:04 PM   #19
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Justify gets a 107 beyer for winning a slow Santa Anita derby where he got a easy pace scenario to work with and Good Magic gets a 95 beyer after a solid win in the Bluegrass and having to navigate a tough outside post.
  • Santa Anita Derby was faster than the Bluegrass
  • Good Magic had a much easier task (running down allowance level performances) than playing catch-me-if-you-can in front of a stakes performance.
  • Bolt d'Oro ran faster than Good Magic and never really threatened Justify.
  • Santa Anita Derby did not have an easy pace scenario.
  • Beyers are not even supposed to even consider ground loss or pace

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One problem with SA that day is there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks.
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There were three.

As I've mentioned, Santa Anita has been much slower the past year than it usually is. Historical comparisons using raw times will be pretty useless IMO.
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Originally Posted by Afleet
SA Derby 1:49.72
Wood Memorial 1:49.79
So a slow playing SA is as slow as Aqu after a winter type weather?
Seems impossible to believe and Justify was loose on an uncontested lead
Old Time Revival was loose on an uncontested lead in the Wood Memorial.

Does that somehow make the figure for Vino Rossi 'impossible to believe'?

It's fun to compare, and it's difficult to compare with the understanding that raw times are worthless without adjusting for variants, but trying to compare things like raw fractions and final 3/8 is a fools errand. You've got CJ here posting the timeformUS pace figs and final figure for all of these preps. Use it!
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-13-2018 at 02:18 PM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 03:27 PM   #20
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You've got CJ here posting the timeformUS pace figs and final figure for all of these preps. Use it!
Which I appreciate but, I'm sorry, when Core Beliefs gets the same figure as Audible, Menelssohn, Vino Rosso, and Good Magic then I have to question the figure.
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Old 04-13-2018, 03:38 PM   #21
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A few years ago a horse named Heati (or something close to that) ran in a OC 10000 6.5 f race at Delta Downs. When I was putting the results in for that day at I saw the final time and thought that's fast. I looked at the Bris figs for the race and at the Beyer figures for the race and they were similar. I the next race the horse shipped to FG and won at 15-1. I spent a lot of time on that race and knew that the figure the horse ran was right. If people want to disregard Justify's figure, I'm fine with that. Bet against him.
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Old 04-13-2018, 04:34 PM   #22
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All I know is Mendelssohn earned ever bit of his 106. I’ve rewatched that race a few times now he was just much the best against a field of horses that I think was solid when compared to other prep races and he was under wraps at the end.

No way Justify can hang with him. I don’t care what kind of inflated number they give him for the SA derby. Sometimes just watching the race with your own eyes tells you everything you need to know ..
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Old 04-13-2018, 05:36 PM   #23
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One thing for certain - at any track, raw times mean zero.
i disagree with this.there was a time when it meant less, but now is not that time.

you have certain 3yr olds that will become chanpions of the future at many distances in these prep race/allow races.. in breaking down these races times are huge if they show something better/special than the other horses

unless i'm quoting you out of context in regards to track being slower than normal....sure comparing track A to track B in terms of raw time will/could/sometime/ is inaccurate and therefore the bigger picture is cloudy or just flat out wrong......i agree with that. ..but it's still a little grey regardless.

but raw times mean quite a bit if every track plays as normal

Last edited by boys at tosconova; 04-13-2018 at 05:40 PM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 05:55 PM   #24
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This what I'm talking about!

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This is why I'm careful taking speed figures hook, line, and sinker. I recall scratching my head at the 108 BSF Materiality got in one of the slowest Florida Derby renewals in history. The horse didn't so squat thereafter.
GP is my home track, when awesome figs are issued for slow-by-the-clock races they almost never hold up based on what those horses ever do again. Year after year after year. I think Thorograph uses the CYA caveat that the effort cooked the horse for good, but why don't fast times with fast figs cook all of these horses at GP and SA all the time?

Ouality Road was a fast horse, with very fast figs, and he never ran slow in his life. His time in the FL derby was fast enough to say, based on the Justify/Materiality defense, that GP must have been playing 2-3 seconds faster that day, but not a peep, and his body of work confirms his time. He had bad feet, but he never ran slow, spit the bit maybe, but never ran slow.

Game on Dude amassed 6-7 years worth of fast times and insulting figs, and year in, year out, Santa Anita was dismissed as never being even a par with what it had been before or after he ran there. Game on Dude was apparently the luckiest horse ever to live, Santa Anita never changed in 6 years, was illusorally fast for 6 years. But now it is slower than some pokey, never been fast track.

Has it become significantly deeper? Surely, Beyer, Thorograph, Timeform have enough pull to find out exactly how much deeper they've made it. If it isn't deeper, how in the world did it lose 3 seconds? Why hasn't there been a rash of bowed tendons, which accompanies horses that trained on shallow tracks as 2yos, but race on deep tracks as 3yos?

I mean no disrespect and these figs and the argument Santa Anita has slowed by 2-3 seconds may prove spot on, but the only objective measure of speed is time, when time is questioned, the burden always lies with the one saying 2+2=10.

Do we believe Spectacular Bid was running on a track 2-3 seconds faster than his time indicates in the Strub? Do we believe Secretariat was running on a track 2-3 seconds faster than his time indicates in the Belmont? Do we believe that Dr. Fager's mile record is bunk because he was running on a track 2-3 seconds faster than his time indicates? Or do you look at their amassed times over the course of their careers and say, their times look legit? Which is impossible with a 3yo, esp one that debuted in soring.

I admit Baffert winning is getting boring (I'm sure Euros feel the sam about O'Brian), but I have no problem being wrong and withvJustify proving to be the fastest slow poke that ever graced a track and being castigated for doubting that a track has slowed by 2-3 seconds, 1 second, 1.5 seconds, but 15 lengths?

Last edited by papillon; 04-13-2018 at 06:00 PM. Reason: changed yous to wes
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Old 04-13-2018, 06:17 PM   #25
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but raw times mean quite a bit if every track plays as normal
Without a good variant, how do you know if it is playing normal? We know Aqu is playing drastically different lately, and don't forget, it is a new surface, so we have no idea what normal is yet. There have only been a handful of 9 furlong races run over it.

And SA is playing slower. And again, very few 9 furlong races.
So now how do you compare the Wood and the SA Derby?
And what is normal for Maydan?
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Old 04-13-2018, 08:25 PM   #26
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Without a good variant, how do you know if it is playing normal?
Do the figure makers not question their calculated variant when beat to oblivion in a slow race Instilled Regard posts the same figure as American Pharoah? When Core Beliefs posts as big of figure as any other 9F prep winner this year? All hail Instilled Regard and Core Beliefs. According to the figure makers they are as good or better than the last Triple Crown winner. They are better than the Florida Derby winner and the two year old champ. Bet them with authority because the race figure cannot possibly be in error.
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Old 04-13-2018, 08:32 PM   #27
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Do the figure makers not question their calculated variant when beat to oblivion in a slow race Instilled Regard posts the same figure as American Pharoah? When Core Beliefs posts as big of figure as any other 9F prep winner this year? All hail Instilled Regard and Core Beliefs. According to the figure makers they are as good or better than the last Triple Crown winner. They are better than the Florida Derby winner and the two year old champ. Bet them with authority because the race figure cannot possibly be in error.
I think Core Beliefs may become a pretty respectable player in this division, I know the barn was very high on him before he ever raced.
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Old 04-13-2018, 09:23 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Do the figure makers not question their calculated variant when beat to oblivion in a slow race Instilled Regard posts the same figure as American Pharoah? When Core Beliefs posts as big of figure as any other 9F prep winner this year? All hail Instilled Regard and Core Beliefs. According to the figure makers they are as good or better than the last Triple Crown winner. They are better than the Florida Derby winner and the two year old champ. Bet them with authority because the race figure cannot possibly be in error.
What has he run, three times? You think you know what he is already?

I also know that in races that are fast all the way around, horses that don't win tend to run their best figures. They are asked to give more than they are in most races.

I used to do a lot of running. I would always run my best times when in against superior runners I couldn't beat. I could never match those times in training or in races where the competition wasn't as good and couldn't set a strong pace.

I very much think that is something that happens in horse races also.
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Old 04-13-2018, 09:24 PM   #29
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All I know is Mendelssohn earned ever bit of his 106. I’ve rewatched that race a few times now he was just much the best against a field of horses that I think was solid when compared to other prep races and he was under wraps at the end.

No way Justify can hang with him. I don’t care what kind of inflated number they give him for the SA derby. Sometimes just watching the race with your own eyes tells you everything you need to know ..
Lone F first off I have enjoyed your overall input. We may disagree about Justify but like you I keep watching that replay of Mendelssohn. And man that is who looks like the superhorse! Plenty of solid posters on here believe their eye test. This is one I would encourage them to watch a few times. It's not would a 5K claimer would do with a bias in his favor. And for these lightly raced bunch of 3yo's he actually does have a resume. I believe he is the real deal too.
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Old 04-13-2018, 09:38 PM   #30
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Without a good variant, how do you know if it is playing normal? We know Aqu is playing drastically different lately, and don't forget, it is a new surface, so we have no idea what normal is yet. There have only been a handful of 9 furlong races run over it.

And SA is playing slower. And again, very few 9 furlong races.
So now how do you compare the Wood and the SA Derby?
And what is normal for Maydan?

obv there will be extremes from time to time. but mostly tracks perform up close or up to what they always do. SA performing slower is not the norm it's the exception

and it's obv that other tracks cycle these types of things as well. from day to day to possibly a meet.

how do you compare, you got me. but if i had to be down on a horse in the present day derby it's gonna be from SA and not a NY track. and i don't think any astute capper would argue that

i don;t place much emphasis in any speed figures as well. it seems like every jackass has a speed figure these days as well.
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