Beyer figs

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

What has he run, three times? You think you know what he is already?

I also know that in races that are fast all the way around, horses that don't win tend to run their best figures. They are asked to give more than they are in most races.

I used to do a lot of running. I would always run my best times when in against superior runners I couldn't beat. I could never match those times in training or in races where the competition wasn't as good and couldn't set a strong pace.

I very much think that is something that happens in horse races also.

CJ I just wanted to point out to everybody that you unofficially gave Mendelssohn a 128. Not everybody has known you and conversed with you for years to trust your judgement. But that tidbit should raise a brow for the uninformed.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

obv there will be extremes from time to time. but mostly tracks perform up close or up to what they always do. SA performing slower is not the norm it's the exception

and it's obv that other tracks cycle these types of things as well. from day to day to possibly a meet.

how do you compare, you got me. but if i had to be down on a horse in the present day derby it's gonna be from SA and not a NY track. and i don't think any astute capper would argue that

i don;t place much emphasis in any speed figures as well. it seems like every jackass has a speed figure these days as well.

You do know that track has been torn up twice and added a new base so it's not the same track right? There is so much "smart" skepticism that looks over this basic piece of common sense.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

You do know that track has been torn up twice and added a new base so it's not the same track right? There is so much "smart" skepticism that looks over this basic piece of common sense.

obv that could attribute to it. but i don't know what you're trying to say.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

obv that could attribute to it. but i don't know what you're trying to say.

I'm not being derogatory Boys. It just seems apparent to me. I thought it did to everyone that follows this game. That's all.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I'm not being derogatory Boys. It just seems apparent to me. I thought it did to everyone that follows this game. That's all.

i have no idea what you're talking about. and you refuse to explain yourself.

and from the look of it, it does in fact seem like a passive insult coming from you stemming from what i said over something.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i have no idea what you're talking about. and you refuse to explain yourself.

and from the look of it, it does in fact seem like a passive insult coming from you stemming from what i said over something.

OK they tore the old dirt track out. Put in a new base. tried a synthetic surface. Added stuff to it. Tore that out. Added a new mix of dirt back. Now the track has been playing slow for over a year as has been noted by reputable figure makers. The historical comparisons IMO are irrelevant. If you want to be insulted OK. I think that is a moronic line of thinking all considered from above.

Anyway there you go!

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by cj

What has he run, three times? You think you know what he is already?

I also know that in races that are fast all the way around, horses that don't win tend to run their best figures. They are asked to give more than they are in most races.

You will also find that a horse that does this is usually in his running style. He should be 2 lengths off the lead and runs there, he does not know that they are running 23 seconds for the first quarter, instead of 24 seconds. A horse runs as fast as the race is run, not as fast as the horse can run.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

OK they tore the old dirt track out. Put in a new base. tried a synthetic surface. Added stuff to it. Tore that out. Added a new mix of dirt back. Now the track has been playing slow for over a year as has been noted by reputable figure makers. The historical comparisons IMO are irrelevant. If you want to be insulted OK. I think that is a moronic line of thinking all considered from above.

Anyway there you go!

much better.

i think i quoted tom out of contex and it was done to me as well...this is a speed figure thread,...haha, good day

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i have no idea what you're talking about. and you refuse to explain yourself.

and from the look of it, it does in fact seem like a passive insult coming from you stemming from what i said over something.

Regarding Justify I think the interpretations being thrown about are as wrong as many think his figure is. To me beating a horse like Bolt Doro who was likely to take a step forward off what I think was one of the best preps shorter than 9f in the San Felipe(the other being Audible's Holy Bull) makes the figure accurate. My route rating of that race was a 207. Good Magic's BC Juvenile was 199 by comparison. Bolt Doro had an incredible 218 in the Frontrunner and I think bounced off that one as a 2yo. 220 is the derby par and the closest horse to hit that this year was Flameaway in the SF Davis with a 209. I think he backed that up last Saturday and because of that I think Good Magic also improved off his 199. If Bolt Doro also improved and Justify beat him I think this puts both up near the derby par. I think both are better than the latter two. Anyway my interpretation of Bolt Doro's form cycle is what makes me believe in Justify.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

much better.

i think i quoted tom out of contex and it was done to me as well...this is a speed figure thread,...haha, good day

We're horse racing fans and instead of spring fever we got Derby fever. We are peas in a pod brother!

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

If the competition had somehow gotten worse, we'd be seeing that in shippers performing poorly in my opinion when compared to the odds. I haven't seen that at all with SoCal dirt horses.

Look at My Boy Jack and Instilled Regard, for example.

My Boy Jack again.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

My Boy Jack again.

Your work is done here CJ! Once you convince the masturbatory Derby fiends a Northern Dacer might win=they ain't havin it! Life is preferable through the narrow chinks of their cavern! I know. I stayed in those caverns a while!

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

My Boy Jack again.

just ran 1-2 by 10 in the older horse stake...you should lower your figures though, they aint performing

as an aside, City of Light was really good, rider kept him out in the middle of of the track and still won.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

just ran 1-2 by 10 in the older horse stake...you should lower your figures though, they aint performing

as an aside, City of Light was really good, rider kept him out in the middle of of the track and still won.

Twitter

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by cj

There were three.

As I've mentioned, Santa Anita has been much slower the past year than it usually is. Historical comparisons using raw times will be pretty useless IMO.

I've said I think Santa Anita is playing much slower and I mean much slower than I can ever remember. I have played it long enough to know even the cheapest horses can put up quick sectionals. The past year has been pretty much no can do.

I did a little checking to see if my opinion would change. Let's just say I confirmed my own opinion. It was nothing fancy or scientific but it was more than enough for me. Since were talking Derby I checked the 6F call for every 2 turn race including todays races on a fast track this meet at Santa Anita. It is 88 races and here is the break down.

1:10-1:10.99 1 race and just barely Unique Bella 1:10.95
1:11-1:11.99 10 races
1:12-1:12.99 42 races
1:13-1:13.99 25 races
1:14-1:14.99 10 races

I looked at sprint races and it just made the case even stronger.