Beyer figs

[Robert Fischer]

Signal-to-noise ratio varies inversely with the amount of Derby Fever.

I've lost track of whether the vocal minority actually doesn't believe in track variants or simply enjoys to troll for banter.

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I've said I think Santa Anita is playing much slower and I mean much slower than I can ever remember. I have played it long enough to know even the cheapest horses can put up quick sectionals. The past year has been pretty much no can do.

I did a little checking to see if my opinion would change. Let's just say I confirmed my own opinion. It was nothing fancy or scientific but it was more than enough for me. Since were talking Derby I checked the 6F call for every 2 turn race including todays races on a fast track this meet at Santa Anita. It is 88 races and here is the break down.

1:10-1:10.99 1 race and just barely Unique Bella 1:10.95
1:11-1:11.99 10 races
1:12-1:12.99 42 races
1:13-1:13.99 25 races
1:14-1:14.99 10 races

I looked at sprint races and it just made the case even stronger.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I've said I think Santa Anita is playing much slower and I mean much slower than I can ever remember. I have played it long enough to know even the cheapest horses can put up quick sectionals. The past year has been pretty much no can do.

I did a little checking to see if my opinion would change. Let's just say I confirmed my own opinion. It was nothing fancy or scientific but it was more than enough for me. Since were talking Derby I checked the 6F call for every 2 turn race including todays races on a fast track this meet at Santa Anita. It is 88 races and here is the break down.

1:10-1:10.99 1 race and just barely Unique Bella 1:10.95
1:11-1:11.99 10 races
1:12-1:12.99 42 races
1:13-1:13.99 25 races
1:14-1:14.99 10 races

I looked at sprint races and it just made the case even stronger.

wow, that is crazy, I remember so many races in the 110+ range over the years

stuff like 23, 46, 109 happened regularly, now cheap horses walked home but they were doing it early in the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

Magnum Moon received a 98 beyer

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Magnum Moon received a 98 beyer

Feels light, what does that Give Accelerate and City of Light, 108ish?

Feels like those two threw down in a fast time and should have definitely been 110+. I feel like that was accelerates best race since he beat Arrogate and got like a 115.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Feels light, what does that Give Accelerate and City of Light, 108ish?

Feels like those two threw down in a fast time and should have definitely been 110+. I feel like that was accelerates best race since he beat Arrogate and got like a 115.

It does feel light, I was expecting a 103, but beyer puts out numbers based on his formula or whatever else he uses.

[f2tornado]

Equibase figure was 105. This is on par with their figures for Wood and Bluegrass.

[cj]

Based on the clock alone the spread on points between the Oaklawn H and the Arkansas Derby should be about 14 points.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by cj

Based on the clock alone the spread on points between the Oaklawn H and the Arkansas Derby should be about 14 points.

I definitely think Justify is much better than Magnum.Moon

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Signal-to-noise ratio varies inversely with the amount of Derby Fever.

I've lost track of whether the vocal minority actually doesn't believe in track variants or simply enjoys to troll for banter.

So, if you question whether or not Justify really did run 1:12 instead of take on faith it was really 1:09, you should keep your mouth shut or you're a troll?

Well, here's hoping the faithful do not have to erase Justify from their memories, just as they have had to Materiality and Verranzano. It is not like we don't see this every year, it's just that people are very good of massaging their cognitive dissonance when the narratives they are invested in do not pan out overtime.

sigh.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Signal-to-noise ratio varies inversely with the amount of Derby Fever.

I've lost track of whether the vocal minority actually doesn't believe in track variants or simply enjoys to troll for banter.

I have not read one post suggesting variants don’t exist. I don’t think it is trolling to suggest the Brisnet figure for the 4th place finisher beaten by 11 lengths in the 19th slowest renewal in history is somehow the same as American Pharaoh’s 11th fastest Arkansas Derby win in history. I don’t think it is trolling to scratch head when Core Beliefs gets the same TimeForm figure as Good Magic or Vino Rosso.

[LoneF]

The speed figures for the Santa Anita derby were obviously inflated and a perfect example why speed figures should be treated as only a small piece to the puzzle.

Look at the Brisnet speed figures ....

Installed Regard 4th in the Santa Anita Derby 102

Vino Rosso wins the Wood 102

Noble Indy wins LA Derby 100

Good Magic wins Bluegrass 98

Is there anybody that with a straight face can say installed regard looked better running 4th in the SA Derby than either Noble Indy or Good Magic actually winning their races or just as good as Vino Rosso winning his ?

[cj]

Originally Posted by LoneF

The speed figures for the Santa Anita derby were obviously inflated and a perfect example why speed figures should be treated as only a small piece to the puzzle.

Look at the Brisnet speed figures ....

Installed Regard 4th in the Santa Anita Derby 102

Vino Rosso wins the Wood 102

Noble Indy wins LA Derby 100

Good Magic wins Bluegrass 98

Is there anybody that with a straight face can say installed regard looked better running 4th in the SA Derby than either Noble Indy or Good Magic actually winning their races or just as good as Vino Rosso winning his ?

I didn't know speed figures were beauty pageants.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

Based on the clock alone the spread on points between the Oaklawn H and the Arkansas Derby should be about 14 points.

Apparently the Magnum Moon Beyer was adjusted upwards 5 points for pace. That is a reach in my opinion. I have the pace as moderate but hardly crawling. I've been wrong before though.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

I didn't know speed figures were beauty pageants

Fair enough. Substitute his use of "looked better" to "ran the same as" or "as fast as". So, can anyone with a straight face think Instilled Regard, finishing a distant 4th in the 19th slowest Santa Anita in history, ran a race as fast as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby on record? Do you really think the eleven length defeat was truly on par with Good Magic's Bluegrass or Vino Rosso's Wood?

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Fair enough. Substitute his use of "looked better" to "ran the same as" or "as fast as". So, can anyone with a straight face think Instilled Regard, finishing a distant 4th in the 19th slowest Santa Anita in history, ran a race as fast as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby on record? Do you really think the eleven length defeat was truly on par with Good Magic's Bluegrass or Vino Rosso's Wood?

Yes, I can really say that. This kind of stuff happens every day in lower class racing, without the historical references of course. It is the very reason for speed figures.

Look what the Cali horses did in the Oaklawn Handicap. I doubt either of them looked very fast on raw times.