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Old 04-15-2018, 11:50 AM   #61
LoneF
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Fair enough. Substitute his use of "looked better" to "ran the same as" or "as fast as". So, can anyone with a straight face think Instilled Regard, finishing a distant 4th in the 19th slowest Santa Anita in history, ran a race as fast as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby on record? Do you really think the eleven length defeat was truly on par with Good Magic's Bluegrass or Vino Rosso's Wood?
Yeah “ looked better “ was probably a poor choice of words but I am glad you still got the point I was trying to make.
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Old 04-15-2018, 12:03 PM   #62
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Look what the Cali horses did in the Oaklawn Handicap. I doubt either of them looked very fast on raw times.
Or alternatively, watch Unique Bella fail in the Apple Blossom.
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Old 04-15-2018, 12:11 PM   #63
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I saw Installed Regard hopelessly lag far behind what was basically a dog and pony show by Justify and Bolt in the SA Derby.

In the Bluegrass I saw Good Magic break from a tough post against a solid field and put away a really good horse in Flameaway that always grudgingly gives up the lead in the stretch.

Yet, Installed Regard gets the better number ?

I don’t need Brisnet to piss on me and tell me it’s raining lol

Last edited by LoneF; 04-15-2018 at 12:13 PM.
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Old 04-15-2018, 12:37 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Or alternatively, watch Unique Bella fail in the Apple Blossom.
LOL, yeah, speed figures also are made to predict horses that won't break! Who knew!?
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Old 04-15-2018, 02:29 PM   #65
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My Boy Jack received a 90 beyer
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Old 04-15-2018, 02:43 PM   #66
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My Boy Jack received a 90 beyer
Equibase figure a 99 which is a few points below their average for the race. I do think he will have an average pace to run at in Derby but likely to fall well short. I suspect 8.5 panels will be his ideal distance.
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Old 04-15-2018, 05:42 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
Yes, I can really say that. This kind of stuff happens every day in lower class racing, without the historical references of course. It is the very reason for speed figures.

Look what the Cali horses did in the Oaklawn Handicap. I doubt either of them looked very fast on raw times.
Raw times for the last 1 1/16 race for each horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, listed in random order, who is the fastest? The 11 and winner is not listed, had never run the distance.

1. 104
2. 105.6
3. 105.4
4. 102.55
5. 105
6. 104.55
7. 102
8. 102.4
9. 103.4
10.103.55
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Old 04-15-2018, 06:22 PM   #68
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City of Light ran two 7F races in a row in 1:21.1 @SA-thats fast raw time
Accelerate ran 1 1/8 in 1:50 2/5 Feb 3@SA in the San Pasqual-slow time

Last edited by Afleet; 04-15-2018 at 06:24 PM.
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Old 04-24-2018, 11:17 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Raw times for the last 1 1/16 race for each horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, listed in random order, who is the fastest? The 11 and winner is not listed, had never run the distance.

1. 104
2. 105.6
3. 105.4
4. 102.55
5. 105
6. 104.55
7. 102
8. 102.4
9. 103.4
10.103.55
I missed this. What was the answer? Really the only time I ever see raw times is when watching a race and seeing them pop up on the screen,
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Old 04-24-2018, 11:39 AM   #70
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I missed this. What was the answer? Really the only time I ever see raw times is when watching a race and seeing them pop up on the screen,
They are listed in order of post position. The 10 looks average here, but the figures make him stand out.
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Old 04-24-2018, 12:34 PM   #71
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They are listed in order of post position. The 10 looks average here, but the figures make him stand out.
Yep, and he finished 10 in front of the rest.
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:51 PM   #72
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Raw times are like raw meat.
Much better when properly grilled.
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:24 AM   #73
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Raw times are like raw meat.
Much better when properly grilled.
But often the raw meat is way overcooked and ruined.

Slow horses make for slow races which make high variants which make for high speed figures.
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:27 AM   #74
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But often the raw meat is way overcooked and ruined.

Slow horses make for slow races which make high variants which make for high speed figures.

It doesn't really work like that at all, except in the case of the old DRF Speed Ratings and Track Variants.

What makes high variants is slow races from fast horses.
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Old 04-25-2018, 12:01 PM   #75
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I always enjoy reading the posts in the Triple Crown Trail section, you guys toss around some interesting ideas. Keep it going. Thanks!
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