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Old 04-24-2018, 09:05 PM   #31
CincyHorseplayer
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Cincy,

You're right about me being primarily a main track player.
I made my own speed figures, but, ONLY for dirt.

Turf racing looks to me to be all about trips, with everyone slowing the pace and waiting for the final quarter-mile to go.
I really don't care for it.

So yes, my options are definetley limited. But, I think your going to see a reduction in field sizes in turf racing also. In fact, think it's already begun.
Just not as noticeable since fields are still bigger than on dirt. But, not by as much as they were. So watch out.
I always liked turf racing because of the finishes and it catered to class handicapping but I didn't really dig into it til the winter of 12-13. Assembled whatever there was out there written about it including pedigree. 5 years later and it was well worth the effort.

I think crop shrinkage is affecting what you say but I believe the crop size will balloon back up.
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Old 04-24-2018, 11:31 PM   #32
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One of the problems can be seen here:

http://www.equibase.com/live.cfm

Looking at the schedule for this Saturday, April 28, I see 33 tracks running T-Bred and Q-Horse races. Mostly T-Bred as far as I can tell. Even with a "normal" crop, that would seem to me to be excessive.

I am not familiar with the smaller tracks, but I have to assume that many of them are racinos, and that they are a lot more interested in running enough races to keep a gambling license than in catering to horse players. In any case, 33 tracks running has to be a glut, and too few horses spread over too many tracks has to be a big factor in short fields.
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:29 AM   #33
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Racetracks all over have been warned of short fields. It is going to get worse and racinos sure didnt save the game as everyone thought.
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Old 04-25-2018, 02:20 PM   #34
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Racetracks all over have been warned of short fields. It is going to get worse and racinos sure didnt save the game as everyone thought.
Ten years ago another member and I (BillW) were sitting at Churchill Downs or maybe Keeneland (I’m getting old) when somebody at our table started talking about how much Racino money was going to be flowing into the game. The guy was celebrating the new money.

BillW explained how in five years the Casino guys won’t give a damn about racing, the field sizes would dwindle because the big trainers would be the only ones with horses etc

He pointed even further down the road and told us how the little guys won’t be able to compete in 10 years, at the windows or on the track. The celebration of new money continued.....

BillW was right.........
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:21 PM   #35
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Man all this talk of live racing

They just closed my track HP a couple of weeks ago on the day the horses were supposed to ship in at the last minute. Some drove 14 hours with their horses only to have to turn around and go back

So we were just left with a single harness track in Northville until that was just sold to a developer last week. At least they will be running there till 2020 but after that who knows? The owner says he wants to build a new track, but he also wants slot machines, good luck with that in Michigan.

Even though they ran mostly 4K, 5K claimers the attendance was good even if it was mostly for the cheap beer. They didn’t charge for parking or admission meant more money for betting for me. Even when you lose a little you still have a good time being outside with your buddies watching the crowd and betting the ponies.

Not having a local TB track to go to will definitely put a dent in my interest and amount or races I will bet. Might have to take a couple of road trips to get my fix of live TB racing.
Can't believe a state like Michigan can't support a racetrack. Is Arlington now your closest racetrack? You have probably already been, but AP is an excellent facility
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:21 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by JustRalph View Post
Ten years ago another member and I (BillW) were sitting at Churchill Downs or maybe Keeneland (I’m getting old) when somebody at our table started talking about how much Racino money was going to be flowing into the game. The guy was celebrating the new money.

BillW explained how in five years the Casino guys won’t give a damn about racing, the field sizes would dwindle because the big trainers would be the only ones with horses etc

He pointed even further down the road and told us how the little guys won’t be able to compete in 10 years, at the windows or on the track. The celebration of new money continued.....

BillW was right.........
Bill certainly appears to have been spot-on.

So many good trainers have left the game in the last 5 - 10 years. So many names you just don't see any more in the PP's.

Some have given up trying to compete with the big outfits and have retired.
Some have taken the "if you can't beat them join them" route and are now assistants working for the big "super trainers". Some got jobs working for the tracks instead of being a trainer.

When you look at the stakes results every week, it's almost always the same names. The exceptions are few and don't repeat very often.

(Pletcher has won the Gulstream meet 15 times in a row now! Only Brown and Pletcher have a chance for Saratoga anymore. Asmussen in the Midwest. It goes on and on.)

Tracks don't seem to care either. Otherwise they'd be trying to put some limits in place, or do SOMETHING.

But hey, the tracks have got casino dole to pay their salaries and retirement packages - and bonuses.

----

Next week is the Derby, so will leave this topic alone for a little while, but, would like to keep the thread open.

But, feel free to keep commenting in the meantime while I sit out.

This isn't going away and I'll revisit this in the future.

Happy Derby next week everybody.

Denny

Last edited by Denny; 04-25-2018 at 06:26 PM. Reason: Punctuation, spacing, extra few words.
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:23 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by JustRalph View Post
Ten years ago another member and I (BillW) were sitting at Churchill Downs or maybe Keeneland (I’m getting old) when somebody at our table started talking about how much Racino money was going to be flowing into the game. The guy was celebrating the new money.

BillW explained how in five years the Casino guys won’t give a damn about racing, the field sizes would dwindle because the big trainers would be the only ones with horses etc

He pointed even further down the road and told us how the little guys won’t be able to compete in 10 years, at the windows or on the track. The celebration of new money continued.....

BillW was right.........
prophetic!
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:25 PM   #38
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Bill certainly appears to have been spot-on.

So many good trainers have left the game in the last 5 - 10 years. So many names you just don't see any more in the PP's.

Some have given up trying to compete with the big outfits and have retired.
Some have taken the "if you can't beat them join them" route and are now assistants working for the big "super trainers". Some got jobs working for the tracks instead of being a trainer.

When you look at the stakes results every week, it's almost always the same names. The exceptions are few and don't repeat very often.

(Pletcher has won the Gulstream meet 15 times in a row now! Only Brown and Pletcher have a chance for Saratoga anymore. Asmussen in the Midwest. It goes on and on.)

Tracks don't seem to care either. Otherwise they'd be trying to put some limits in place, or something.

But hey, the tracks have got casino dole to pay their salaries and retirement packages - and bonuses.

Next week is the Derby, so will leave this topic alone for a little while.

But, feel free to keep commenting in the meantime.

This isn't going away and I'll revisit this in the future.

Happy Derby next week everybody.

Denny
Looks like Cox might upset the applecart at KEE; leading the trainers standings w/a nice 50%+ win rate
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Old 04-26-2018, 02:43 PM   #39
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Can't believe a state like Michigan can't support a racetrack. Is Arlington now your closest racetrack? You have probably already been, but AP is an excellent facility


Gotta remember who owns AP and what they did to Calder
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Old 04-26-2018, 02:54 PM   #40
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Reminder: This thread is not about going to the track and our experiences there.

It's about the state of the product we bet on, and the lack of interest by the general public. The decline in interest by off-track players (like at my OTB). The shrinkage in number of bet-able races due to small fields (in both thoroughbreds and harness) and so on.

See original post #1.

Thanks for staying on topic.

Last edited by Denny; 04-26-2018 at 02:56 PM.
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Old 04-26-2018, 05:55 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by JustRalph View Post
Ten years ago another member and I (BillW) were sitting at Churchill Downs or maybe Keeneland (I’m getting old) when somebody at our table started talking about how much Racino money was going to be flowing into the game. The guy was celebrating the new money.

BillW explained how in five years the Casino guys won’t give a damn about racing, the field sizes would dwindle because the big trainers would be the only ones with horses etc

He pointed even further down the road and told us how the little guys won’t be able to compete in 10 years, at the windows or on the track. The celebration of new money continued.....

BillW was right.........
I admit I didn't give it much thought when racino's came on the scene but it hindsight shouldn't this have been obvious? Meaning, wouldn't larger purses inspire trainers to run less? $100k Maiden Special can be treated like a stakes race where they train up to the "big race". In yesteryear, wouldn't smaller purses required horses to earn more by racing in volume?

It seems like major decisions are made to the benefit of owners and trainers but the detriment to the game as a whole. A big percentage of races I see during the week are very small fields won by very low prices. It feels like public workouts where the connections get paid but makes the product extraordinarily unappealing.

I'm certainly not saying trainers and owners should prosper in the game but the incentives for a healthy game just don't exist in many areas.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:56 PM   #42
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Casinos needed racing to get established. Now that they are, they find themselves in an Odd Couple relationship. Casinos make money, racing leeches it off of them.

It is a no-brainer for casinos - they no longer need the tracks. Governments know it. The tracks probably have no clue, as in most things they are involved in.

It would be stupid for casinos to not want to get free from the tracks and go on their own. The influx of money was supposed to drive up purses and improve racing. How'd that work out at Aqueduct - the Graveyard of Entries. Apparently, you can't pay people to race at the Big A. :lola
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Old 04-27-2018, 02:08 PM   #43
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Opening day of the Spring meet at beautiful Belmont.
A day I always looked forward to when I lived down there.
Problem is, the place looks deserted.
More people on site are working with the horses or are connected to the horses in some way.
Appears to be very few fans there.
Can't blame the public though, the place is like an ice box. Built to be a Summer track, the grandstand faces North.
At least they have more than four or five horses in a race.
Can they ever get the public interested again on Long Island?
Seems they're going to try.
They're going to spend fortune renovating the place over the next few years.
Hope it's worth it.

Last edited by Denny; 04-27-2018 at 02:11 PM. Reason: Spelling
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Old 04-27-2018, 04:38 PM   #44
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Opening day of the Spring meet at beautiful Belmont.
A day I always looked forward to when I lived down there.
Problem is, the place looks deserted.
More people on site are working with the horses or are connected to the horses in some way.
Appears to be very few fans there.
Can't blame the public though, the place is like an ice box. Built to be a Summer track, the grandstand faces North.
At least they have more than four or five horses in a race.
Can they ever get the public interested again on Long Island?
Seems they're going to try.
They're going to spend fortune renovating the place over the next few years.
Hope it's worth it.
Denny I wish I was there with you brother. I love the ontrack experience. I think we got off on the wrong foot. I am an ontrack guy and love my fellow players!
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Old 04-27-2018, 07:28 PM   #45
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All's good Cincy. Hope to see you at the track some day!

Time for Meadowlands right now. See ya.

Last edited by Denny; 04-27-2018 at 07:30 PM.
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