Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-22-2018, 07:17 PM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Is Bolt d'Oro is next Real Quiet?

Real Quiet finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and made a bold move around the turn that I can see Bolt making in the Kentucky Derby... food for thought. I can see it. If you get 10-1 on the most battle tested horse in the field that's really good value. I know he finished behind McKinzie and Justify but so would of Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Audible. Who woulda guessed Bolt would be an under the radar horse? 4-1 not a great bet, 8 or 10-1 and i'd take that all day.

Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-22-2018 at 07:19 PM.
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 07:26 PM   #2
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
I've been considering this for weeks!
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 07:42 PM   #3
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Bolt and Good Magic will be my plays....funny the top two year olds, who would have guessed.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 08:12 PM   #4
horses4courses
Registered User
 
horses4courses's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,529
?

Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.
horses4courses is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 08:33 PM   #5
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses View Post
Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.
I think the larger point was that a very talented horse, Real Quit, was forgotten because of a very very talented young horse whipped him in the SA Derby in Indian Charlie.

Indian Charlie was a very good horse, he finished 3rd in that Derby and got hurt, he could have been special.

Bolt DOro is very good, he may be forgotten because of Justify. I think its a fair point.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 08:36 PM   #6
horses4courses
Registered User
 
horses4courses's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,529
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I think the larger point was that a very talented horse, Real Quit, was forgotten because of a very very talented young horse whipped him in the SA Derby in Indian Charlie.

Indian Charlie was a very good horse, he finished 3rd in that Derby and got hurt, he could have been special.

Bolt DOro is very good, he may be forgotten because of Justify. I think its a fair point.
I won't rule him out, by any means.
He's a tough horse.
horses4courses is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 09:09 PM   #7
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Real Quiet finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and made a bold move around the turn that I can see Bolt making in the Kentucky Derby... food for thought. I can see it. If you get 10-1 on the most battle tested horse in the field that's really good value. I know he finished behind McKinzie and Justify but so would of Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Audible. Who woulda guessed Bolt would be an under the radar horse? 4-1 not a great bet, 8 or 10-1 and i'd take that all day.
An MDO colt going a mile and a quarter on dirt, I would need a lot more than 10-1.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 10:23 PM   #8
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
An MDO colt going a mile and a quarter on dirt, I would need a lot more than 10-1.
I think they said the same thing about Quiet American in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They got a little over 8-1.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2018, 12:03 AM   #9
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
It’s possible but Real Quiet was another Raise A Native and Buckpasser-x horse. He picked up a couple lengths on Indian Charlie through the final 3/8. This relative to Bolt who lost a couple lengths. I guess if you like Bolt then you almost have to like Justify as well.

Last edited by f2tornado; 04-23-2018 at 12:06 AM.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2018, 08:25 AM   #10
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses View Post
Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.
Agreed, plus somehow people leave out the fact that Good Magic beat Bolt D'oro and Solomini shipping west on their home tracks as a maiden. But the original poster and many others seem to have forgotten about the BC Juvenile race. Now somehow Good Magic would of finished behind all of them? A horse that also beat Enticed in a grade 1 as a maiden in NY. The logic is pretty thin on the accounts you read here. Now, he's Real Quiet? Ok I'm buying.......

Oh, that BC Juvenile sucked, so did the Champagne and Blue Grass, even though he's beaten much of the competition in this race.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2018, 10:08 AM   #11
LoneF
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....

Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?
LoneF is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2018, 08:11 PM   #12
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF View Post
I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....

Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?
lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.

Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.

Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.

Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-24-2018 at 08:16 PM.
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2018, 10:08 PM   #13
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.

Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.

Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2018, 11:11 PM   #14
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
I think they said the same thing about Quiet American in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They got a little over 8-1.
One was in his third crop of racers, the other is in his thirteenth.

Last edited by depalma113; 04-24-2018 at 11:14 PM.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 12:04 AM   #15
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
One was in his third crop of racers, the other is in his thirteenth.
Bolt D'Oro is from Medaglia D'Oro's 10th crop. Point taken regardless.

That aside, there is plenty of stamina in the fillies and the turf males. Additionally, there is no shortage of 9f dirt winners in an age where there is a clear dearth of graded stakes at 10f or more.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.