Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-25-2018, 11:52 AM   #16
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 12:57 PM   #17
BlueChip@DRF
Random Numbers Generator
 
BlueChip@DRF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Ummmm.... I'm going to go with no. All tracks do not play the same. All gate breaks do not play the same. Field sizes would be different. Just no.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
BlueChip@DRF is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 01:30 PM   #18
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.

Last edited by f2tornado; 04-25-2018 at 01:32 PM.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 01:39 PM   #19
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Anyone have hard data to prove or disprove the Santa Anita surface being very slow?
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 02:45 PM   #20
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.
How come Santa Anita turf horses are getting so low of figures but are running final times much faster than a few years ago...yet they ship and lose (see Kee last couple weeks)

I dont get it, please explain. The raw times are so fast.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 03:13 PM   #21
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.
Every reputable figure maker I've seen has that as the fastest prep race.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 03:30 PM   #22
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
How come Santa Anita turf horses are getting so low of figures but are running final times much faster than a few years ago...yet they ship and lose (see Kee last couple weeks)

I dont get it, please explain. The raw times are so fast.
I don't follow SA turf horses much but I concur insofar as the few clocks I've seen have been respectable. I cannot speak for their shipping figures and therefore will refrain from answering the question.

For what it's worth, I can also state with some confidence the wet sealed track at SA is running quicker than the fast track. I don't deny a surface impacts running times. I'm merely skeptical the main track is suddenly a full 2.2 seconds slower that in was in 2014. I'm all ears if someone has some insight to a change in track maintenance there that would cause this precipitous decline.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 03:39 PM   #23
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Santa Anita slowed their track to try and reduce fatal break downs. They are using a lot less clay in the soil mixture now.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 03:46 PM   #24
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Santa Anita slowed their track to try and reduce fatal break downs. They are using a lot less clay in the soil mixture now.
They have also been adding material to the top mix in an effort to provide more cushion, this started about 4-5 years ago but every year its been altered.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 03:52 PM   #25
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
They have also been adding material to the top mix in an effort to provide more cushion, this started about 4-5 years ago but every year its been altered.
Well at least now they know the mixture for both a fast and slow track.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 04:42 PM   #26
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Anyone have hard data to prove or disprove the Santa Anita surface being very slow?
Just for you , and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 05:08 PM   #27
SkunkApe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 326
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Just for you , and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.
Good work. Thanks.
SkunkApe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 06:11 PM   #28
dballard125
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 254
After watching all of the preps, and looking at the data that I have available, I won’t be playing Bolt on top of any of my tickets. I just have the feeling 10f isn’t going to be in his wheelhouse. Maybe I’m wrong and it bites me in the ass, but you gotta stand with a lot of these horses.
dballard125 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 08:01 PM   #29
JJMartin
Registered User
 
JJMartin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 586
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Well at least now they know the mixture for both a fast and slow track.
check pm
JJMartin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2018, 06:50 AM   #30
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Just for you , and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.
awesome! with that said Bolt is a major player. there really is nothing to suggest he is distance limited and a longer stretch run should only benefit him.

Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-26-2018 at 06:55 AM.
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.