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Old 04-25-2018, 04:03 PM   #1
papillon
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After indepth review of PPs

I was not feeling so hot yesterday, so I spent the day reviewing the pps for all of the horses.

For me, there are only two fractions I care about in races longer than 7f--the 3/4 and the mile, and the difference between them.

I don't worry about early pace, a horse will blow itself up or it won't, but it rarely effects where they would have been at 8f in terms of being competitive. It effects where they would have been at 6f, but 6f is only important to me for determing when a particuler horse reaches its lactic acid threshold on average.

So I have a very unsophisticated sorting system?based on determing average time of each horse at both calls: I toss the high and low outlier times, and average the rest. I round up and down, no decimals. Then I map them on a yellow legal pad, with each horse depicted as as a little stick figure horse head with its intial for its face. I realize this will likely be laughed at, but it works more often than not.

All positions assume perfect trip, most comfortable pace for each horse.

Mendelsohn, Noble Indy, Justify, and Flameaway hit the stretch first, four across in 1:11, Bolt D'Oro is a length behind them. Audible and Good Magic are side by side a length behind him, Magnum Moon is a length behind them. Firenze Fire, Enticed, Solomini, and Promises Fullfilled are in a line a length behind him in 1:12. Free Drop Billy is two lengths behind them, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Combatant, and Lone Sailor are on the advance are a length behind him in 1:13. Bravazo is with them but fading badly..

Twenty horses reach the stretch within 10 lengths of each other, just like 2005.

Mendelssohn, going strong, and Noble Indy, beginning to falter, hit the mile in 1:35. Audible and Good Magic hit it five lengths back at 1:36 moving well, along with Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, and Hofburg who are starting to give way. Another five lengths back in 1:37 are: Firenze Fire, fading badly, Magnum Moon, Lone Sailor, moving well, Free Drop Billy, Instilled Regard, Enticed, Solomini, moving well, Promises Fulfilled, Combatant, moving well. Bravazo is all alone 5 lengths behind them in 1:38.

Two horses free in the late stretch, followed by two walls of horses, just like in 2005.

Just based on this, I would assume that Audible and Good Magic should be able to catch and pass Noble Indy. Lone Sailor, Solomini, and Combatant will catch and/or pass Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, and Hofburg. Solomini will likely stall.

How I try to guess which horses will be passed and which will not is by tying to see which are likely the most tired and have shown a negative response to weight.

The best chances are Audible and Hofburg; followed by Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Justify tied, followed by Flameaway, Noble Indy, Lone Sailor tied; followed by Solomini and Bolt D'Oro, Combatant tied.

Some observations: Bolt O'Oro has flattened and become more of a grinder as the distance has increased. Solomini could not captalize on a 5lb and 2lb weight break, respectively, in his last two races, losing ground in both. Combatant will be adding 8lbs. There does not appear to be a true one move closer.

These are the questions I rank the horses on:

Number of races in last six months and last twelve months, fewer is better, I do not like horses for whom the derby will be their 5th or more race in 6 months.

Number of races at 1 1/16th, fewer and later is better. I do not like to see a horse race beyond a mile as a 2 year old.

Number of races carry over 120lbs (more is better), number carrying over 123lbs (more is better), reaction to highest weight carried (slowed is worst, followed by went faster, no change is best).

Number of bad starts, gave ups, drifts, nimble moves, fights, and lost grounds.

Only Bolt O'Oro and Mendelssohn have carried weight over 123lbs, Mendelssohn's last race was 126, his race before that was 134.

Flameaway likes off tracks.

Anywho rip it apart


Edit to add-- the reason I see Justify giving way at the mile is because in his races the difference between the 6f and the 8f has been basically the same. This tells me his threshold is between 6-7f, which is pretty standard.

Last edited by papillon; 04-25-2018 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 04-25-2018, 05:29 PM   #2
Gerard02
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Interesting race simulation. I used to do something similar, years ago. It was fun to calculate the times and then compare the times as they ran. I ran my simulation when the draw was done. It was pretty primitive, but it gave me a view of the race before it was run. Good luck with yours.
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Old 04-25-2018, 05:50 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by papillon View Post
Anywho rip it apart
You left out My Boy Jack, who likes to make one run.

Whether Kent Desormeaux decides to unleash him way too early (say at the 1/2 mile pole), or commence an 8- or 9-wide late sweep, or a combination thereof is anybody's guess...
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Old 04-25-2018, 07:31 PM   #4
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Can't say I agree with all of the conclusions or theory but you have your own method and I will buy your book when it comes out! You are in the true player universe. Great place to be!
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Old 04-25-2018, 07:50 PM   #5
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:00 PM   #6
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I don’t agree with the method but this is what Derby week is all about. Analyzing...hell, over analyzing, having fun, dreaming big. It only happens once a year, so whatever works, go for it and have a blast. Living here in Louisville, I sure as hell plan to. Bourbon, hot ladies, and the ponies. It doesn’t get any better.
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:02 PM   #7
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I've gotta say your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

(I keed! I keed! Thanks for your insight, this is my favorite race because I learn so much from everyone's analysis. Thanks.)
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:31 PM   #8
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I don’t agree with the method but this is what Derby week is all about. Analyzing...hell, over analyzing, having fun, dreaming big. It only happens once a year, so whatever works, go for it and have a blast. Living here in Louisville, I sure as hell plan to. Bourbon, hot ladies, and the ponies. It doesn’t get any better.
Absolutely!
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Old 04-25-2018, 10:54 PM   #9
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Oops

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
You left out My Boy Jack, who likes to make one run.

Whether Kent Desormeaux decides to unleash him way too early (say at the 1/2 mile pole), or commence an 8- or 9-wide late sweep, or a combination thereof is anybody's guess...
He's on the diagram--6f 1:13, with Lone Sailor et al

8f 1:37 with Magnum Moon et al, faltering

Too many heads

Stalling or not stalling is based on the amount of time it took them to get from 6f to 8f in their last race, 24s = going well, 25s = stalling, 26s = faltering. I don't average this one because the last race is indictive of wear and tear, and almost always is at highest weight to date.

In My Boy Jack's case I used his 2nd the last race because he was carrying more weight.

I have a background in professional cycling, so I try to guesstimate as best as possible their physiological condition and lactic acid threshold.

For context:

Buffering lactic acid is the 2nd most important function of Lasix, masking doping is the 1st, which is why it is illegal in human sports.

EPO increases oxygen capacity of red blood cells, this doesn't buffer lactic acid directly, but as it slows the rate of exhaustion, which makes it easier to cope with lactic acid.
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Old 04-26-2018, 12:03 AM   #10
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I like your review; well done.

You've got Noble Indy ahead at the mile mark, so do I. The 6fl split of 1:11 flat is dead on, however your mile time of 1:35 is fast by about seven / eight lengths; you need to throttle that mile time back to about 1:36.70. Please provide a race revision in light of the new mile time information.

If Noble Indy goes 8fl in 1:36.70, what happens then?
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Old 04-26-2018, 03:38 PM   #11
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Believe it or not

I actually had two horses with alternative placements based on their smoothed average vs their last race because it was so different: Vino Rosso and Noble Indy.

With Noble Indy, I have three red up arrows having his mile at 1:37 (I round all of them), based on his final race. That should put him behind Audible, Good Magic, Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Mendelssohn, which is not where he wants to be, I think.

He slowed considerably between 6-8f last out. Most here will likely think that was due to the track, I am more inclined to believe it was the 8lb increase more. I think he needs to be ahead of those other horses at the mile to have a shot, he needs to have a distance buffer, and hope that Vino Rosso, Flameaway, and Bolt D'Oro succumb to too many miles and the weight (Bolt D'Oro is least likely to feel his extra two pounds, but he has been hard ridden since last summer); that Justify and Hofburg succumb to the weight and their inexperience; that Audible and Good Magic have a bad day, and that Mendelssohn's consistent 1:35s across surfaces since November is nothing but a souped up track with a golden rail, because the weight is going to be a gnat to him and despite racing 8 times in 11 months only one of those races was over a mile, and he didn't reach a mile until November and the the Derby will only be his third start.

FWIW, Vino Rosso will be up against it if he runs his first 6f in 1:11-ish again, he was slowing considerably.

The reason I do not like to see a 2yo run longer than mile, on a steady progression from 5.5, reaching a mile in Oct, and then no races after that until at least February, and then a sprint first back, is because it is the path taken by Dr. Fager, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectaular Bid. The road to the BJC followed by the road the KY Derby has a high attrition rate, and I'm inclined to defer to Charles Nerud who called it a meat grinder that he chose not to subject his horses to from Fager on.

Regarding Medelssohn's 1:35--his first two races where carrying 131lbs on good Curragh turf, which is softer than Newmarket good and like a bog compared to American good. He did ok-ish, then He went to soft turf at Doncaster and had the worst race of his life, then he went Newmarket good, and ran 7f in 122 carrying 127lbs, then he ran on firm American turf in 1:35 carrying 122, then he runs 8f in 1:38 carrying 134lbs at Dundalk on synthetic--the weight alone by standard calculation cost him two seconds (10 lengths), finally he runs 1:35 again carrying 126...on dirt.

I just think Noble Indy is not going to want to be playing catch up at the mile.

Thank you for taking me seriously.
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Old 04-26-2018, 03:51 PM   #12
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Quote:
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Regarding Medelssohn's 1:35--his first two races where carrying 131lbs on good Curragh turf, which is softer than Newmarket good and like a bog compared to American good. He did ok-ish, then He went to soft turf at Doncaster and had the worst race of his life, then he went Newmarket good, and ran 7f in 122 carrying 127lbs, then he ran on firm American turf in 1:35 carrying 122, then he runs 8f in 1:38 carrying 134lbs at Dundalk on synthetic--the weight alone by standard calculation cost him two seconds (10 lengths), finally he runs 1:35 again carrying 126...on dirt.

I just think Noble Indy is not going to want to be playing catch up at the mile.

Thank you for taking me seriously.
Pretty good, considering the Curragh stretch is mostly uphill running.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:03 PM   #13
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Thank you for taking me seriously.
This is good stuff.
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