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Old 10-11-2017, 09:50 AM   #1
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Delaware 10/11-Class Hcp Method

Race 5- Del-5.5 f.-4000 n1y-Purse 10k-10/11/17

Using Class Hcp method: Eliminate the 1, 3, 4, 10, & 11 for recency. Elim. 1 for form for starters.

Synchronous 3-1 ML 30% - 6194 (3-1) 4 pts.- Qual 2nd - 6 bl’s @ 8000

Carolina Speed 4-1 ML 44% - 4189 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual ?? 8th-31 bls’ on turf. 2LR > 5 mos.

Mr. Game Seven 5-1ML 10% - 3419 (6-3) 9 pts.-Qual. 3rd - 1 bl. @ 4000

Oxford Street 10-1 ML 25% - 1193 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 2nd -4.5 bl’s @ 5000b

Portent 8-1 ML 42% -4015 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 4th-6 bl’s @ 8000

Faithful Servant 15-1 ML 16% - 840 (5-6) 11 pts. -Qual 4th-4.75 bl’s @ 4000

Nico’s Prize 6-1 ML 50% - 2700 (1-4) 5 pts. - Qual 2nd - hd @ 4000

So we have three horses tied at 4 points with a 4th horse close behind at 5 pts. I so want to put a NQ next to Carolina Speed since his last race was dismal on the turf, and we have to go back over 5 months to get a qualified race on dirt. However, his huge drop looks formidable. So I get Carolina Speed first for now; Portent, Synchronous, & Nico’s Prize.

I said in the Hcp Method thread I give “little” consideration to speed. But when three horses are tied with the same numbers, I do two things to break ties. List the last two speed ratings(same dist) and /or look at EPS for this year only. In both cases the wins in both categories. The is competitive with for SR’s and the beats the for EPS this year only.

For Races 1 & 2 at Delaware, see Handicapping Thread.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2017 at 09:57 AM.
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Old 10-11-2017, 12:54 PM   #2
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Race 4-Del 10/11

R4- MSW 34K -6 f.

Pucon 6-1 ML FTS (16% trnr)-scratched at Parx recently
Just Flashy 4-1 50% - 5270 (1-1) 2 pts. Qual 2nd -5 @ same level
Under The Graydar 8-1 ML FTS (18% trnr-Greg Sacco)
Create Again 2-1 ML 0% - 3740 (2-2) 4 pts. -Qual -3rd 6.25 Bl's @ same
Talon 3-1 ML FTS- (24% trainer)
Scurlin 10-1 ML FTS (0% trainer ?)
Settle All Scores 8-1 Ml (18% trainer-Greg Sacco)

So with 5 FTS'rs, we have the Just Flashy at (1-1) 2 pts.(top pick) and Create Again (2-2) 4 pts.(2nd pick). I'm also using the Pucon FTS due to him scratching at Parx.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:29 PM   #3
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Race 6-Del 10/11

R6-Del- 6f- 6250 n2L-12K purse


Blumin Sweetheart 20-1 ML 0% -$765 (5-6) 11 pts.- Qual-5th-7.5 bl's
Sweet Plebe 12-1 ML 14%-1294 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 4th -2.75 bls
Leapt 4-1 ML 0% -2376 (5-3) 8 pts.-Qual -Up close @7500
Tybee 3-1 ML 52days l/o (33%-2372)- NQ recency, only win after layoff?
Sweet Tandy 6-1 22% -1300 (3-5) 8 pts.-Qual 2nd-nk same
Sunshineinmypocket 15-1 (13%-866) -NQ 6th-9.25 bl's
Makeyourselfathome 5-1 13% -2062 (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual. 3rd-5.5 bl's @10k
Redeeming Love 8-1 22% -2531 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual. up close @ 25000
Nerve Love 10-1 25% -3726 (2-1) 3 pts.-Qual 2n LR 3-2.75 bls' @12500
Lady Gregoria 6-1 53% -1227 (1-5) 6 pts. -Qual. 4th -5-3/4 bl's

Nerve Love at (2-1) 3 pts. is first choice; Redeeming Love (3-2) 5 pts. is 2nd; Lady Gregoria (1-5) 6 pts. is third. The Tybee, the layoff horse is the danger who would be a (2-3) at 5 pts. if qualified.
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