Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-11-2017, 10:50 AM   #1
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 697
Rep Power: 9 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Delaware 10/11-Class Hcp Method

Race 5- Del-5.5 f.-4000 n1y-Purse 10k-10/11/17

Using Class Hcp method: Eliminate the 1, 3, 4, 10, & 11 for recency. Elim. 1 for form for starters.

Synchronous 3-1 ML 30% - 6194 (3-1) 4 pts.- Qual 2nd - 6 bl’s @ 8000

Carolina Speed 4-1 ML 44% - 4189 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual ?? 8th-31 bls’ on turf. 2LR > 5 mos.

Mr. Game Seven 5-1ML 10% - 3419 (6-3) 9 pts.-Qual. 3rd - 1 bl. @ 4000

Oxford Street 10-1 ML 25% - 1193 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 2nd -4.5 bl’s @ 5000b

Portent 8-1 ML 42% -4015 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 4th-6 bl’s @ 8000

Faithful Servant 15-1 ML 16% - 840 (5-6) 11 pts. -Qual 4th-4.75 bl’s @ 4000

Nico’s Prize 6-1 ML 50% - 2700 (1-4) 5 pts. - Qual 2nd - hd @ 4000

So we have three horses tied at 4 points with a 4th horse close behind at 5 pts. I so want to put a NQ next to Carolina Speed since his last race was dismal on the turf, and we have to go back over 5 months to get a qualified race on dirt. However, his huge drop looks formidable. So I get Carolina Speed first for now; Portent, Synchronous, & Nico’s Prize.

I said in the Hcp Method thread I give “little” consideration to speed. But when three horses are tied with the same numbers, I do two things to break ties. List the last two speed ratings(same dist) and /or look at EPS for this year only. In both cases the wins in both categories. The is competitive with for SR’s and the beats the for EPS this year only.

For Races 1 & 2 at Delaware, see Handicapping Thread.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein

Last edited by Whosonfirst; 10-11-2017 at 10:57 AM.
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-11-2017, 01:54 PM   #2
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 697
Rep Power: 9 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Race 4-Del 10/11

R4- MSW 34K -6 f.

Pucon 6-1 ML FTS (16% trnr)-scratched at Parx recently
Just Flashy 4-1 50% - 5270 (1-1) 2 pts. Qual 2nd -5 @ same level
Under The Graydar 8-1 ML FTS (18% trnr-Greg Sacco)
Create Again 2-1 ML 0% - 3740 (2-2) 4 pts. -Qual -3rd 6.25 Bl's @ same
Talon 3-1 ML FTS- (24% trainer)
Scurlin 10-1 ML FTS (0% trainer ?)
Settle All Scores 8-1 Ml (18% trainer-Greg Sacco)

So with 5 FTS'rs, we have the Just Flashy at (1-1) 2 pts.(top pick) and Create Again (2-2) 4 pts.(2nd pick). I'm also using the Pucon FTS due to him scratching at Parx.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-11-2017, 03:29 PM   #3
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 697
Rep Power: 9 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Race 6-Del 10/11

R6-Del- 6f- 6250 n2L-12K purse


Blumin Sweetheart 20-1 ML 0% -$765 (5-6) 11 pts.- Qual-5th-7.5 bl's
Sweet Plebe 12-1 ML 14%-1294 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 4th -2.75 bls
Leapt 4-1 ML 0% -2376 (5-3) 8 pts.-Qual -Up close @7500
Tybee 3-1 ML 52days l/o (33%-2372)- NQ recency, only win after layoff?
Sweet Tandy 6-1 22% -1300 (3-5) 8 pts.-Qual 2nd-nk same
Sunshineinmypocket 15-1 (13%-866) -NQ 6th-9.25 bl's
Makeyourselfathome 5-1 13% -2062 (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual. 3rd-5.5 bl's @10k
Redeeming Love 8-1 22% -2531 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual. up close @ 25000
Nerve Love 10-1 25% -3726 (2-1) 3 pts.-Qual 2n LR 3-2.75 bls' @12500
Lady Gregoria 6-1 53% -1227 (1-5) 6 pts. -Qual. 4th -5-3/4 bl's

Nerve Love at (2-1) 3 pts. is first choice; Redeeming Love (3-2) 5 pts. is 2nd; Lady Gregoria (1-5) 6 pts. is third. The Tybee, the layoff horse is the danger who would be a (2-3) at 5 pts. if qualified.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Is the Churchill Downs/Keeneland Partnership a good thing or bad for Industry?
It's a good thing for the Industry - 0%
0 Votes
It's a bad thing for the Industry....Boycott Keeneland! - 70.37%
19 Votes
I don't care either way. - 29.63%
8 Votes
Total Votes: 27
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2017 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.