ex.bets

[bugboy]

would like to know how players feel about the 3 horse ex. box.
ya play 6 bets and already are assured of loosing 5 of them.
any input on this?

[green80]

Originally Posted by bugboy

would like to know how players feel about the 3 horse ex. box.
ya play 6 bets and already are assured of loosing 5 of them.
any input on this?

you may get lucky for a day but you can't win long term doing that

[Robert Fischer]

1. OK as an 'entertainment/action' bet for a day at the races.
2. OK in JUMBO field-size situations
3. OK when there is a significant bias or pace scenario which favors a few non-favorites

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by bugboy

would like to know how players feel about the 3 horse ex. box.
ya play 6 bets and already are assured of loosing 5 of them.
any input on this?

And the guy who bets 192 pick-5 combinations is assured of losing 191 of them...so what? In the right situation...any number of different betting strategies are suitable for the task. It's all a matter of risk/reward.

[barn32]

Back when I was a regular player (20 years ago) 80% of the time I only played one-way cold exactas. 20% of time two-way exactas. (A/B) (A/BC).

Nowadays, with short fields, late odds changes, and shorter prices, anything but one-way cold exactas makes little sense to me.

[broker81]

Mr Barn ı want to see your picks system today at saratoga

[barn32]

Originally Posted by broker81

Mr Barn ı want to see your picks system today at saratoga

I don't think I've ever made one bet at Saratoga. My focus was on West Coast tracks.

[capitalman]

I use 3 horse exacta boxes when I have 3 horses fairly evenly matched, better than the rest of the field & at least one of them is a longshot.

I play a lot of exactas. The 3 horse box is shown above. Most of my exactas involve boxing the horse I like with 2 or 3 horses. If it's a Quinella race (only races 2 & 4 by NYRA) and I really like my top choice, I'll play a quinella rather than reversing the exacta. For example say I like #1. I'll play 1/2,3,4 & then 2,3,4/1. But if I'm really confident I'll play my top horse over the other 2 or 3 in the quinella. I view the boxes and quinellas more as insurance. If the 1 is one of my best bets that day I'll also play a trifecta. In this example I go 1/2,3,4/2,3,4. If I view my choice as super solid, like one of the best bets of the week, I'll do something like 5 increments 1/2,3,4 but only go 1 increment 2,3,4/1.

[classhandicapper]

If you absolutely hate the favorite, expect him to finish out the top 2, but have no strong opinion on 3 logical contenders that all seem to offer good value, I see no problem with boxing an exacta. However, it's not something I would do regularly because I would typically have a positive opinion of some kind.

[bugboy]

Thanks for all the input.

[donmat]

I use RPG Optimun and it has a model exacta window. For example Allowance sprints 5 furlongs on the turf might show boxing the top 4 trainers have a 50% ROI and 45% win percentage. Now if in the current race the top 2 trainers are much better than the 3rd and 4th than instead of boxing you could wheel the top 2 on top and 3rd and 4th on the bottom for 2nd. You might not get the big winners by boxing but would reduce the cost. I just starting looking at this recently.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you absolutely hate the favorite, expect him to finish out the top 2, but have no strong opinion on 3 logical contenders that all seem to offer good value, I see no problem with boxing an exacta. However, it's not something I would do regularly because I would typically have a positive opinion of some kind.

this is a good angle, on the rare occasion when it all fits together

the last 3-horse exacta box I made was a in a 9F dirt race at Saratoga.July this year. The favorite Spice Road drew wide and I thought that was enough adversity to hinder the favorite. There were three horses (Scars are Cool, Majority Rules, Per Capita?) who drew inside and were decent and/or had tactical speed. None was a key to me (even though Scars are Cool had a decent run, in hindsight). Paid $27.50 for $1 ($6 wager cost). Was lucky to win a photo for place, as Spice Road ran a solid third in spite of the wide start.