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Old 09-23-2015, 12:54 PM   #31
Si2see
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Does anybody know which races he had his major hits on Saturday ? Steve Byk was mentioning the contest this morning but I couldn't wait around for the interview

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Old 09-23-2015, 01:09 PM   #32
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Does anybody know which races he had his major hits on Saturday ? Steve Byk was mentioning the contest this morning but I couldn't wait around for the interview
This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-k...ative-strategy
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Old 09-23-2015, 01:19 PM   #33
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Handicapper who can handle all types of races at A+ level

and has money and does not care if he loses it can do very well. Does not surprise me. My son does well and he knows so very little, He's a poker player
, scoffs at the 2-1,3-1 etc. Looks at double digit horses only , has no fear. last spring he made me play a 30-1 shot. He came in 2nd , we had the tri, super, I'd would have never played him. I pointed out the things I liked about him, and my son said DO IT, DO IT! ah DAD, DO IT! and I'm telling him, "he's not going to win". Finally to shut him up I played him.
Derby day he laid out some of my picks based on the good things I liked about the Horses, and I won over $7k. You need big balls, and willing to lose money


But how does he do in a format where he can only pick 1 horse?
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Old 09-23-2015, 01:28 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-k...ative-strategy
Thanks for the link. That tells most plays except for the early play, that is what I am most interested in. Other than the man being virtually unstoppable this year, I don't know much about his play ( Dirt, Turf, Maiden, 2yo, etc )
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Old 09-23-2015, 01:34 PM   #35
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and has money and does not care if he loses it can do very well. Does not surprise me. My son does well and he knows so very little, He's a poker player
, scoffs at the 2-1,3-1 etc. Looks at double digit horses only , has no fear. last spring he made me play a 30-1 shot. He came in 2nd , we had the tri, super, I'd would have never played him. I pointed out the things I liked about him, and my son said DO IT, DO IT! ah DAD, DO IT! and I'm telling him, "he's not going to win". Finally to shut him up I played him.
Derby day he laid out some of my picks based on the good things I liked about the Horses, and I won over $7k. You need big balls, and willing to lose money


But how does he do in a format where he can only pick 1 horse?

Great story. I play like this anytime I am playing ( mythical contest or real wagering )... My problem is the strike rate. I don't hit often but hit good scores when I do.

What Kinchen appears to be doing is both, capitalizing on solid favorites, and catching several longshot plays. His balance is what I am most intrigued with.

Jason
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Old 09-23-2015, 02:13 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-k...ative-strategy
“I tried to qualify on DRFQualify but didn’t make it,” said Kinchen, “but I still wanted to go and hang out with my racing wife, Nick Tammaro. I figured we’d play in the contest, and spend a Sunday at Frankie’s [the sports bar] watching football.”

This was from Randall's link....and before anyone get's all Butthurt about it, in post #25 I believe--I paid Mr Kinchen the highest compliment I've ever paid a regular-guy horse player. Don't know his personal life at all, but wish I had a "racing wife", who cared about football. Mine knows nor cares one wit about either.

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Old 06-26-2018, 01:31 PM   #37
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I'm listening to the DRF Podcast with Kinchen and Pete Fornatale.

Kinchen: "I'm not a germaphobe or anything, but anytime my son comes home from school, he has to first go into the shower to get rid of those germs (from school).

Maybe not a bad idea, but THAT is most definitely a germaphobe.
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Old 06-26-2018, 04:57 PM   #38
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Seeing this old thread bumped back up and reading through my own posts from almost 3 years, I figured I would share an update even though this thread was about a different ( and one of the better contest players ).

I have still being playing both through the windows, and some tournament play, but nothing as serious as I wanted to.

In 2016 I had a pretty good year topped off by 5th place finish at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. That also won me an entry to the summer classic a month later, where I was fortunate enough to make the overall lead early into day 2, but then staggered home and finished just out of the money.

In 2017 I had a very tough streak in contest play. I admittedly didn't stick to, or really have any game plan like I normally try to do. In the fall classic 2017 I finally had the famous goose egg over three days. In reality I had a rough day 1 and was chasing hopeless horses the rest of the trip, but it was still humbling. A week later I struck out in the keeneland fall challenge ( where our very own Nick Tammaro won by the way ), followed by a terrible breeders cup weekend playing from home ( may favorite weekend of the year ), it was time for a break.

I decided to only play gulfstream over the winter and very few contests or even qualifiers. I needed to get back to studying the contest game, I needed a break, and more than anything I needed to figure out these live bankroll Betting Challenges.

The main reason is I don't think I have ever played over a $100 double, $100 exacta, $20 trifecta or $10 superfecta in my life, but here these people are hitting one $400 straight trifectas, $1000 straight exactas/doubles and winning the whole tournament. I am still not convinced of two things with these tournaments.

1. I am not convinced this is even handicapping. Just my personal opinion, but I agree with a certain horse racing personality that these are exactly as the following two words describe. Betting Challenge.

2. I am not sure I have the ability to win any of these types of tournaments because it takes a lot of guts to build a bankroll then go all in towards the end or in the very last race in order to try to be the outright winner, some of these people are putting thousands and thousands in these wagers, I don't have the luxury of doing that they money is too important to me.

In mythical tournaments I can play with anyone out there when I put the prep work into it, I might not win them all, but I know on any given day I am able to beat anyone if it is my day. ( just missed the win on both of the larger derby wars games this past weekend in one of my first weeks back )

I gave the keeneland spring challenge a shot this year, and had very bad luck. I decided to play 4 larger trifecta tickets early hoping to catch one then have the chance to go all in towards the end as I did actually have good opinions. On the second wager I played, I hit the trifecta 6-1 over 8-1 over 54-1..... Unfortunately the winner was disqualified to fourth ( where I still to this day believe it should've been moved to second ) , that was just a tough blow one that is hard to get over. To add insult to injury 4 of the 5 horses I had marked to load on up at the end of the contest won.

I have a lot of work to do with these but I figured I will get to as many as I can , while not investing a ton of money to do so. I am much better in mythical w/p or w/p/s format tournaments.

The problem is, these mythical tournaments are dying off one by one, which hopefully the good ones stick around, both brick and mortar and online, but I can obviously see the race track's reasoning for switching to the betting challenges as that drastically increases handle over those days.


Jason
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Old 06-26-2018, 07:00 PM   #39
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1. I am not convinced this is even handicapping.
When people are playing a lot of longshots and exotics you need a sample of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order. You are basically hoping you have neutral luck and that strategy and handicapping give you an edge, but plenty of excellent handicappers will have negative luck and lose (or vice versa) unless they play TONS of tournaments.
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Old 06-26-2018, 07:04 PM   #40
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When people are playing a lot of longshots and large exotics you need samples of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order with the primary emphasis on luck.
Agreed. There's a huge degree of variance in handicapping tournaments.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:36 PM   #41
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quite the spat going on between DRF (Kinchen/Fornatale) and the winners of the BCBC.
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Old 06-26-2018, 09:13 PM   #42
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quite the spat going on between DRF (Kinchen/Fornatale) and the winners of the BCBC.
Where do I find this? Something new of late? I listen to the podcast but haven't heard today's yet.
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Old 06-26-2018, 09:27 PM   #43
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Where do I find this? Something new of late? I listen to the podcast but haven't heard today's yet.
I heard the podcast after the Derby where the incident was brought up by DRF on the podcast, then I watch the video from Gabby/McFarland done by Helmers. Something about a shouting match and someone getting a drink thrown on them in Millionaires Row, or on the escalator, I guess.

(this may be old news, I just saw it today)


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Old 06-27-2018, 10:12 AM   #44
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When people are playing a lot of longshots and exotics you need a sample of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order. You are basically hoping you have neutral luck and that strategy and handicapping give you an edge, but plenty of excellent handicappers will have negative luck and lose (or vice versa) unless they play TONS of tournaments.

Right, and for an example of my own play, I love the Laurel Champions tournament because it is a good way to practice live bankroll , affordable play but at win place show only, so I don't feel as if anyone has that big of an advantage over me. I was fortunate enough to finish in 10th in 2016 at this tournament one of the first times I played it, I didn't really have a strategy to move to the top, just had some really good handicapping including a 34-1 winner with $20 on the nose, but I couldn't make it to the top so I started to research more. ( which is key for anyone interested in contests, research as much or more than you actually play )

Now I buy 2 entries both give $200 real money to bet with, but must bet at least $20 win, or place, or show or any combination of those but each must be $20 or higher wager.

I had it set two different ways to play each entry.

Entry 1. Play a format that I know how a former top cash player ( who's name I haven't seen in a while ) taught me the concept.

Play your races in order as they come up for the $20 win bet. If any of them hit lets say you get back $200 from hitting around a 7-1 shot then your next 2-4 wagers in order will be for from that winnings. so say 4 horses $50 win bets. Anything you hit in these "second stage" wagers move over to final bankroll.

I have been working on this off an on since 2016 and I have it in the back of my head for at least any time I can get to the laurel contest.

Entry 2. This format a friend of mine who tears up the monmouth cash games ( which I have never made it to and want to, hopefully this summer ) taught me and says it is really as simple as this

Have your best 1-5 plays of the day . Fire heavy on the first couple that run. Parlay the money and hope you can hit all of your best bets of the day. This is the format several people, including Kinchen seem to win with.

I tried this in the August 2017 contest but had a little bad luck and one mistake.

The first bet was $40 win on a longshot at gulfstream who didn't run well. The second wager was $60 to win on my second best horse of the day. Dowse's beach at woodbine at 7-2 odds. The idea was even though he was a lower price horse if he wins I roll it all on my best bet of the day at Saratoga.

Dowse's beach comes up short and runs second.

So I still have $100 for my best bet of the day, I even gave the horse to my buddy that taught me entry two format because I didn't think I could move up enough with the horse.

The mistake was I end up playing $50 w/p , because if the horse runs second at least I still have a fighting chance to go all in on one more horse. Of course the horse wins Elate in the Alabama pays $10.60 $6.00.

I got back $415 on the wager, fired off some more tickets and ended up at $500. which I believe was 20th place overall.


I believe entry 2 is the only way to win these tournaments if you have the horses, but in August I will try both styles one more time.
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Old 06-27-2018, 03:06 PM   #45
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Right, and for an example of my own play, I love the Laurel Champions tournament because it is a good way to practice live bankroll , affordable play but at win place show only, so I don't feel as if anyone has that big of an advantage over me. I was fortunate enough to finish in 10th in 2016 at this tournament one of the first times I played it, I didn't really have a strategy to move to the top, just had some really good handicapping including a 34-1 winner with $20 on the nose, but I couldn't make it to the top so I started to research more. ( which is key for anyone interested in contests, research as much or more than you actually play )

Now I buy 2 entries both give $200 real money to bet with, but must bet at least $20 win, or place, or show or any combination of those but each must be $20 or higher wager.

I had it set two different ways to play each entry.

Entry 1. Play a format that I know how a former top cash player ( who's name I haven't seen in a while ) taught me the concept.

Play your races in order as they come up for the $20 win bet. If any of them hit lets say you get back $200 from hitting around a 7-1 shot then your next 2-4 wagers in order will be for from that winnings. so say 4 horses $50 win bets. Anything you hit in these "second stage" wagers move over to final bankroll.

I have been working on this off an on since 2016 and I have it in the back of my head for at least any time I can get to the laurel contest.

Entry 2. This format a friend of mine who tears up the monmouth cash games ( which I have never made it to and want to, hopefully this summer ) taught me and says it is really as simple as this

Have your best 1-5 plays of the day . Fire heavy on the first couple that run. Parlay the money and hope you can hit all of your best bets of the day. This is the format several people, including Kinchen seem to win with.

I tried this in the August 2017 contest but had a little bad luck and one mistake.

The first bet was $40 win on a longshot at gulfstream who didn't run well. The second wager was $60 to win on my second best horse of the day. Dowse's beach at woodbine at 7-2 odds. The idea was even though he was a lower price horse if he wins I roll it all on my best bet of the day at Saratoga.

Dowse's beach comes up short and runs second.

So I still have $100 for my best bet of the day, I even gave the horse to my buddy that taught me entry two format because I didn't think I could move up enough with the horse.

The mistake was I end up playing $50 w/p , because if the horse runs second at least I still have a fighting chance to go all in on one more horse. Of course the horse wins Elate in the Alabama pays $10.60 $6.00.

I got back $415 on the wager, fired off some more tickets and ended up at $500. which I believe was 20th place overall.


I believe entry 2 is the only way to win these tournaments if you have the horses, but in August I will try both styles one more time.
Thanks for the write ups. I have been using the feeders to earn the cash entry, my feeling is when I do that its paper money anyways, my loss is the initial feeder cost.

I will bet it aggressive like you outlined in wager 2. My thinking is I am going into that contest thinking of a giant score rather than just some kind of income, 3-10k (entry fee) is nice since I won that but I want to make some real money.
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