Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss
Isn’t that more of a function of how fast he ran early?
Hidden Scroll was never going to live up to the hype of his maiden win, but I thought he ran really well. What everyone seems to be dismissing is it was his second lifetime start and he has one of the best trainers ever calling the shots. I can’t imagine he won’t get a lot out of the FOY and think start number 3 shows us exactly what he is...which is a very, very good horse.
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Yes.
It's absolutely a function of how fast he ran early.
Therein lies his problem.
As of right now,HS hasn't shown he understands what he's doing.
His first out romp was due to his raw speed(cashing in on two biases),and his love of mud(the Danzig line is giant in the goo).
All Rosario had to do was point him in the right direction,and the race was over.
The race didn't test Scroll........I don't think he got anything(mentally) out of his gallop.
And it showed in the FOY........Scroll just ran off......like the time before.......you could see it coming.
The final result was different,because the circumstances were much different.
If Scroll would of took a step forward,his FOY come home's would of resembled last years speedy winner Promises Fulfilled.
Here are PF numbers from last year:
24.59/24.21/24.99/6.58..............even and professional splits for a speed horse.
The other way I look at Hidden Scroll is comparing him to Mott's other top 3yo's.
In order of where they are:
1) Tacitus: not even close.......he's far ahead of Mott's other two.
Mott started him earlier,he shows a stride that covers a lot of ground easier than most..........and most importantly,you can actually see him improving race to race......and figuring it out in his races.
In his first race he showed talent,but he only ran in spots......quite green he was.
In his second race he was still kind of dicey early........but you could see the light bulb go on his last quarter.
In the Tampa Bay Derby he was polished.......he's figured it out.
Now he's got to get the gate right.......he's been kind of clumsy out of the gate in all three of his races.
2) Country House: He's talented.......and he's really green.
But he'll settle in for you,and that's an indication he's on his way .........he'll get it right with more racing........he's really talented.
3) Hidden Scroll.......Incomplete.
All he's shown is blazing speed.
He's a far cry from understanding what he's supposed to do.
He's going to have to be a new animal in the Florida Derby to be something.
And I don't think he can flip the switch considering where he's at off of his first two......I think it's asking a lot of him to turn in to a professional overnight.
That being said........a lot of people see something in him that I don't........and I've been wrong many times before.
So if he improves a ton in his FLA Derby...........I tip my hat to him,and consider him a player.