HIDDEN SCROLL

[metro]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

I’d be interested in knowing who made the decision to drag Hidden Scroll back to 3rd behind a slow pace.

Seemingly every talking head in the sport.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I would say public scrutiny of going to fast last time, he wasnt going to be on the lead no matter what they pace was.

I hope that isn’t the case. If jockeys and trainers are making decisions based on that the game is in worse shape than I thought

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

I hope that isn’t the case. If jockeys and trainers are making decisions based on that the game is in worse shape than I thought

You have to ride to the horses style, but maybe they didnt think he could be a top class horse with that style.

[burnsy]

Changing my handle to Hidden Troll. Cut him back already. Got jobbed by a 70-1 on a soft pace . Can’t even hold on for second? Not in the top 5 ? At least the two closers have an excuse.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

I’d be interested in knowing who made the decision to drag Hidden Scroll back to 3rd behind a slow pace.

Despite the clear attempt by Bill Mott to get the colt to sit off another horse in his last 2 works (both of which visually didn't look particularly successful), one would think that the rating experiment would have gone out the window after the colt drew the rail, particularly since he needed points if he was going to make it to Churchill.

In today's race, the horse broke sharply, but unfortunately, Maximum Security broke even sharper and you can see Castellano look to his right a few yards out of the gate to see what the latter was up to. His plan appears to have been concede the lead to Maximum Security into the first turn and then try and establish an outside position off of his flank.

Unforunately, Castellano (and Mott) didn't bank on two things: (1) the seemingly hopeless longshot maiden, Bode Express, showing enough pace to secure the position meant for Hidden Scroll on the outside of Maximum Security and (2) Maximum Security's jock taking the opportunity to grind the pace to a halt as soon as Hidden Scroll failed to establish an early presence.

From there, it was predictable that the colt would be on the muscle and he tried to drag himself towards the front while in tight at least 3 times while at no point appearing to have the room to do so, even if Castellano wanted to. Instead, the jockey was forced to put his "feet on the dashboard" and hold him back lest he clip heels or have to take up sharply.

Once Hidden Scroll's head and chest were covered with dirt it was only a matter of time before he lost position and spit the bit, no matter what the race caller was claiming ("Castellano hasn't moved on him...deciding where he wants to go...").

Not sure if this horse will make another appearance any time soon, and maybe later down the road he'll reach his potential in some fashion, but at this point he is a clear poster boy for what is wrong with the Derby points system, as horses like this should not have to forego condition races to try to secure a spot in the Derby.

Some of this is on Mott, too, usually a conservative horseman. What was wrong with a game plan like maiden, allowance 1x, allowance 2x, Blue Grass or Lexington? It was like he was trying to get the Derby points before he had the horse developed to the point where he'd be an actual Derby win candidate.

[metro]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Despite the clear attempt by Bill Mott to get the colt to sit off another horse in his last 2 works (both of which visually didn't look particularly successful), one would think that the rating experiment would have gone out the window after the colt drew the rail, particularly since he needed points if he was going to make it to Churchill.

In today's race, the horse broke sharply, but unfortunately, Maximum Security broke even sharper and you can see Castellano look to his right a few yards out of the gate to see what the latter was up to. His plan appears to have been concede the lead to Maximum Security into the first turn and then try and establish an outside position off of his flank.

Unforunately, Castellano (and Mott) didn't bank on two things: (1) the seemingly hopeless longshot maiden, Bode Express, showing enough pace to secure the position meant for Hidden Scroll on the outside of Maximum Security and (2) Maximum Security's jock taking the opportunity to grind the pace to a halt as soon as Hidden Scroll failed to establish an early presence.

From there, it was predictable that the colt would be on the muscle and he tried to drag himself towards the front while in tight at least 3 times while at no point appearing to have the room to do so, even if Castellano wanted to. Instead, the jockey was forced to put his "feet on the dashboard" and hold him back lest he clip heels or have to take up sharply.

Once Hidden Scroll's head and chest were covered with dirt it was only a matter of time before he lost position and spit the bit, no matter what the race caller was claiming ("Castellano hasn't moved on him...deciding where he wants to go...").

Not sure if this horse will make another appearance any time soon, and maybe later down the road he'll reach his potential in some fashion, but at this point he is a clear poster boy for what is wrong with the Derby points system, as horses like this should not have to forego condition races to try to secure a spot in the Derby.

Some of this is on Mott, too, usually a conservative horseman. What was wrong with a game plan like maiden, allowance 1x, allowance 2x, Blue Grass or Lexington? It was like he was trying to get the Derby points before he had the horse developed to the point where he'd be an actual Derby win candidate.

Gulfstream either doesn't write enough condition races that you propose as a better path or the ones they write don't fill. Maybe they do earlier in the meet but by the time February rolls around there are few options.

Not sure if Mott would have wanted to ship to Ark or LA for conditioning, Tampa would be more logical but don't recall many two turn condition races there either.

If they do want to drop into a NW1x there aren't many options coming up at Keeneland either unless they face 3 y.o. and up. Not sure about Belmont.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

I’d be interested in knowing who made the decision to drag Hidden Scroll back to 3rd behind a slow pace.

Indeed. So predictable...so dumb..so premature for the horse's learning curve...

[big frank]

Hidden Scroll had no excuse today ....... If he can't sit and rate off a soft pace and finish up , he is not the horse i thought he was............ Maybe a one turn miler or 7fs is going to be his game ? Was impressed with Bourbon War.........He ran a perfect prep , had no shot and closed in to a soft pace..... and the derby will have pace and this horse has a strong late kick !

[Tom]

On to the Pat Day!
Hopefully without today's pinhead in the saddle.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by big frank

Hidden Scroll had no excuse today ....... If he can't sit and rate off a soft pace and finish up , he is not the horse i thought he was............ Maybe a one turn miler or 7fs is going to be his game ? Was impressed with Bourbon War.........He ran a perfect prep , had no shot and closed in to a soft pace..... and the derby will have pace and this horse has a strong late kick !

Sharp post. I think people jump the gun in attributing characteristics like tractability and professionalism to horses like Hidden Scroll because they are eager to have witnessed the ground floor of greatness.

And thus they talk gibberish about "high cruising speed," and "obvious intelligence,"-to leap directly from "brilliant talent" to "brilliant career."

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by big frank

Was impressed with Bourbon War.........He ran a perfect prep , had no shot and closed in to a soft pace..... and the derby will have pace and this horse has a strong late kick !

I was unimpressed with Bourbon War. He was 4 1/2 lengths back at the 3/4 pole and finished 7 1/2 back. It is rare to have a horse lose that kind of ground in final 3/8th of final prep and win the Derby.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by metro

Gulfstream either doesn't write enough condition races that you propose as a better path or the ones they write don't fill. Maybe they do earlier in the meet but by the time February rolls around there are few options.

Not sure if Mott would have wanted to ship to Ark or LA for conditioning, Tampa would be more logical but don't recall many two turn condition races there either.

If they do want to drop into a NW1x there aren't many options coming up at Keeneland either unless they face 3 y.o. and up. Not sure about Belmont.

Point taken, although there was a one mile first condition allowance the day after the Fountain of Youth (won by some other Jason Servis/Gary West horse). So we can blame the racing office, too.

I guess I underestimated how much things have changed in 20+ years, as I was thinking back to horses like Diligence (who was actually an experienced runner) that was able to win a first condition, some sort of non-stakes winner allowance, and then a minor listed stakes before taking on graded stakes. Of course, that also assumes a trainer is even willing to start his horse 4 times prior to the Kentucky Derby...another change for the worse in modern times.

Meanwhile Keeneland has a 8.5f first condition and a 7f second condition listed for the first week, but that's moot in Hidden Scroll's case now, since he just ran today (and might not run again any time soon).

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I was unimpressed with Bourbon War. He was 4 1/2 lengths back at the 3/4 pole and finished 7 1/2 back. It is rare to have a horse lose that kind of ground in final 3/8th of final prep and win the Derby.

His running line was very similar to his performance in the Remsen (also behind a slow pace), so it's fairly clear he's at the mercy of the pace whether or not he's talented enough to make a dent in the Derby.

Meanwhile, Ferdinand, Unbridled, Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, and Mine That Bird also lost significant ground in their final preps and bounced back to win the Derby.

[rispa]

Didn't somebody once say that class laughs at pace at the Grade 1 level?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

His running line was very similar to his performance in the Remsen (also behind a slow pace), so it's fairly clear he's at the mercy of the pace whether or not he's talented enough to make a dent in the Derby.

Meanwhile, Ferdinand, Unbridled, Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, and Mine That Bird also lost significant ground in their final preps and bounced back to win the Derby.

I failed to add, unless the horse didn’t lose ground in another big 9F prep. Several of the above ran in Blue Grass after winning FL Derby. But, they don’t run ‘em like that anymore. Bourbon has yet to show he can win a 9F race much less a 10F one. I’ll let him beat me in May.