Kentucky Derby 150 : Thoughts and Rehash

[ScottJ]

Alive in doubles, two-day Pick-3s, and a host of other tickets for solid scores, I was counting my well-earned gains as they entered the starting gate with Catching Freedom and Fierceness (my top two choices in order) followed by coverage with Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, and Stronghold equally. Some 5+ days of handicapping and ticket construction was about to payoff. What could go wrong?

Well, we now know the results but the internals of this race were the story in my opinion.

[1] The pace was really hot as evidenced by the opening quarter going in 22 4/5 but also consider that the four battling for the front at the first pass under the line, Track Phantom, Just Steel, Fierceness, and Epic Ride finished 11th, 17th, 15th, and 14th respectively.

[2] The half went in 46 3/5 (second quarter in 23 4/5) around the first turn with both Stronghold and Mystik Dan even paced behind the front four.

[3] Normally, we talk about the front collapsing in the stretch, however the 26 1/5 quarter on the far turn told the tale as the race had already collapsed. Track Phantom won the front end battle but lost the war far from home with Mystik Dan flying up the rail with the decisive and winning move while Resilience was trying to make the first wide move. Only Stronghold was the only other horse near the front that was capable of telling some of the late tales.

[4] In the closing quarter, Catching Freedom (my top choice) ran well following Mystik Dan, only two lengths short making me wish that he had been just somewhat closer but where? Sierra Leone got his needed setup and about as good a closing path as possible. Would have been interesting to see both Sierra Leone and Forever Young with clean runs in the lane rather than the bumping.

[5] Maybe Honor Marie had more in the tank, maybe he was empty. Twentieth after six furlongs and the jockey's experience were too much of a hurdle.

Epilogue : Ten minutes before post-time, I got the phone call from my daughter and son-in-law asking the annual, "who do you like?" question. Long story short, my son-in-law screams from the background, "Mystik Dan" onto which I put the obligatory $2 win ticket for the family members supporting the five-minute, not the 5+ day handicapping effort. So, Kentucky Derby 150 will always be remembered as a $39.22 "winning" return and a "what could have been" day.

[lamboguy]

that race gave everyone everything they could have asked for and more... there was plenty of bumping at the start, a speed dual, and a closing battle down the stretch and the race produced the 3 best horses at the wire.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Race went almost exactly as I saw/predicted in my head all up to the point till Mystik Dan got a great rail trip and squeezed by Track Phantom.

We'll all forever love it, and it is an amazing spectacle of seeing 20 horses rambling along and the hooves pounding.

Maybe lost in all the shuffle is the McPeek/Hernandez Oaks/Derby double. First time ever a Trainer/Jockey have done the double and both 1st time Derby winners. Congrats and well done to them.

[Franco Santiago]

ScottJ,


I enjoyed your recap...thanks for posting!

[MTO Joe]

Twitter

[GMB@BP]

Yea, just saw that. Not sure you could more accurately articulate your opinion and then have it play out like stated.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by MTO Joe

https://twitter.com/DukeOf_Mischief/...15464536920543

Wow.

Big fan of Kaitlin, she does an amazing job at Turfway as an on-track handicapper and co-host.

Didn't even mention any other horse other than the stone cold trifecta. Amazing.

[metro]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Yea, just saw that. Not sure you could more accurately articulate your opinion and then have it play out like stated.

Kaitlyn works hard, and doesn't limit herself to just American racing. She had as much insight on Forever Young as most of what I would consider more highly respected handicappers.

Hope she put her insight to work and crushed it!

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by metro

Kaitlyn works hard, and doesn't limit herself to just American racing. She had as much insight on Forever Young as most of what I would consider more highly respected handicappers.

Hope she put her insight to work and crushed it!

Racing should really be looking at getting this out there as it could appeal to large amount of people.Promote it as a skill game.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

Racing should really be looking at getting this out there as it could appeal to large amount of people.Promote it as a skill game.

Amazing talent. Yes, she is beautiful, but also has a big brain. She was just ripping that along trying to speak as fast as her brain, and eloquently doing as much.

We need more Kaitlin.

[Bullet Plane]

That was an amazingly accurate take on the Derby!

[zerosky]

Astounding

[Vince P 777]

Wow.

Kaitlin echoed the exact analysis I told my wife and horse friends.

The only difference is she analyzed the Derby before the race while I said it aterwards

[Inner Dirt]

Impressive, I haven't watched much horse racing coverage since moving to Virginia. Is she related to Brad?

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Impressive, I haven't watched much horse racing coverage since moving to Virginia. Is she related to Brad?

My guess is they are related. They are both pretty HOT!