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Old 05-24-2018, 04:54 PM   #1
GMB@BP
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Justify sold to Coolmore???

Pretty surprising news. I guess after he retires, maybe that means he runs at 4?

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_to_Coolmore#
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:31 PM   #2
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Winstar is denying the story.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:39 PM   #3
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Not sure I'm really believing this.



ESPN and the NYTimes are supposedly the breaking news sources on this massive horse racing story.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:40 PM   #4
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Not sure I'm really believing this.



ESPN and the NYTimes are supposedly the breaking news sources on this massive horse racing story.
I don't trust either source but what do I know?
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Old 05-25-2018, 04:22 PM   #5
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I don't trust either source but what do I know?
ESPN and the NY Times are not industry publications. Their source will never be revealed. Using them was certainly to ensure that the widest possible audience was reached and to keep the source concealed.

Coolmore has not commented at all, even though WindStar did very quickly, denying the sale, but not the talks. My bet is Coolmore is the source. Why they would want that guarded is odd, as is why they would want that shared with a very broad non-industry base.

Why Coolmore would want a horse it had passed on due to a vet check, who is starting to display the notoriously weak Ghostzapper feet, when it has a $3M Mendelssohn, Carivagio, No Nay Never, and the $1M Scat Daddy baby they just bought, not to mention the only living TC champ, is odder.

Why WindStar would condsider selling a potential golden goose that they could make $40 million on themselves just on the first two years alone is oddest.

If there was a sale, WindStar publically denoucing it could legally be viewed as renunciation/breach. When $60M is on the line, there are some serious contractual clauses involved and lawyers who bill at $1200/hr or more. My bet is that there was no sale.

The most obvious repercussion of the rumor is that WindStar is now percieved as wanting to ditch a horse on the eve of a TC, suggesting that there is something wrong with it. This is on top of a lameness incident, a less than inspiring Preakness, and murky reasons for not racing at two.

It comes out right before the horse becomes a threat to AP at stud, and right after Baffert began running his mouth about how Justify is better in key stud attributes, soundness, sturdiness, and ability to recover, along with performance attributes, all of which are patently false. Plus he's got that 97 and 98 and 2:04 and one of the slowest SA Derbies ever and his derby was a wash because 2/3 of the field were wiped out and he's been winning on slop...and what if the calculated track variant for the SA derby was off, so maybe the 97 wasn't a regression? At $200K a pop these doubts niggle.

Whether Justify wins or not, a seed has been planted in potential investors's minds. Baby APs will be hitting the track soon, and have already been show stoppers. Justify won't be a bargain in comparison to AP and will be an unknown quantity with caveats.

Then there is Mendelssohn. He's better bred, better conformed, more expensive, more versatile, and they already shelled out $3M for him. They've certainly studied the stills from the KY Derby by now, and rightly or wrongly, probably didn't like what they saw regarding Noble Indy's jock and Audible's lane shift.

Audible, as expected, is not going to run in the Belmont, but unexpectedly, Noble Indy is. Noble Indy who accompanied Mendelssohn all the way around the track, but with a dream trip in comparison. Noble Indy who really could be a quality rabbit. Whereas running Audible made no sense, running Noble Indy is crazy, not the least of which, because if he crushes it, even if he loses, Mendelssohn is redeemed.

For Windstar to sell Noble Indy wouldn't be odd. For Coolmore to buy Noble Indy wouldn't be that odd (though a little odd). For Pletcher to run a rabbit for Vino Rosso wouldn't be odd.

There are no coincidences in money. The more money at stake, the more manipulation and machinations involved. The war for the replacement Scat Daddy began 3 years ago. The derby turned that into a war between Coolmore and WindStar. Coolmore is notorius in its ability to hold a grudge, just ask Godolfin. They are playing the long game.

Last edited by papillon; 05-25-2018 at 04:28 PM. Reason: typos
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Old 05-25-2018, 07:10 PM   #6
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ESPN and the NY Times are not industry publications. Their source will never be revealed. Using them was certainly to ensure that the widest possible audience was reached and to keep the source concealed.

Coolmore has not commented at all, even though WindStar did very quickly, denying the sale, but not the talks. My bet is Coolmore is the source. Why they would want that guarded is odd, as is why they would want that shared with a very broad non-industry base.

......

Who the hell is WindStar?
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Old 05-26-2018, 12:42 AM   #7
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Who the hell is WindStar?
oh look!

..... someone made a spelling error.
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Old 05-26-2018, 01:19 AM   #8
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Maybe there is something wrong with the horse
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Old 05-26-2018, 03:05 AM   #9
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oh look!

..... someone made a spelling error.

Spelling errors are fine.


But to make a 12 paragraph diatribe on the very organization supposedly making this atrocious slip up is absurd.


WinStar is one of the THE establishments in horse racing. Period. You don't misspell WinStar by mistake.
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Old 05-28-2018, 05:49 AM   #10
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ESPN and the NY Times are not industry publications. Their source will never be revealed. Using them was certainly to ensure that the widest possible audience was reached and to keep the source concealed.

Coolmore has not commented at all, even though WindStar did very quickly, denying the sale, but not the talks. My bet is Coolmore is the source. Why they would want that guarded is odd, as is why they would want that shared with a very broad non-industry base.

Why Coolmore would want a horse it had passed on due to a vet check, who is starting to display the notoriously weak Ghostzapper feet, when it has a $3M Mendelssohn, Carivagio, No Nay Never, and the $1M Scat Daddy baby they just bought, not to mention the only living TC champ, is odder.

Why WindStar would condsider selling a potential golden goose that they could make $40 million on themselves just on the first two years alone is oddest.

If there was a sale, WindStar publically denoucing it could legally be viewed as renunciation/breach. When $60M is on the line, there are some serious contractual clauses involved and lawyers who bill at $1200/hr or more. My bet is that there was no sale.

The most obvious repercussion of the rumor is that WindStar is now percieved as wanting to ditch a horse on the eve of a TC, suggesting that there is something wrong with it. This is on top of a lameness incident, a less than inspiring Preakness, and murky reasons for not racing at two.

It comes out right before the horse becomes a threat to AP at stud, and right after Baffert began running his mouth about how Justify is better in key stud attributes, soundness, sturdiness, and ability to recover, along with performance attributes, all of which are patently false. Plus he's got that 97 and 98 and 2:04 and one of the slowest SA Derbies ever and his derby was a wash because 2/3 of the field were wiped out and he's been winning on slop...and what if the calculated track variant for the SA derby was off, so maybe the 97 wasn't a regression? At $200K a pop these doubts niggle.

Whether Justify wins or not, a seed has been planted in potential investors's minds. Baby APs will be hitting the track soon, and have already been show stoppers. Justify won't be a bargain in comparison to AP and will be an unknown quantity with caveats.

Then there is Mendelssohn. He's better bred, better conformed, more expensive, more versatile, and they already shelled out $3M for him. They've certainly studied the stills from the KY Derby by now, and rightly or wrongly, probably didn't like what they saw regarding Noble Indy's jock and Audible's lane shift.

Audible, as expected, is not going to run in the Belmont, but unexpectedly, Noble Indy is. Noble Indy who accompanied Mendelssohn all the way around the track, but with a dream trip in comparison. Noble Indy who really could be a quality rabbit. Whereas running Audible made no sense, running Noble Indy is crazy, not the least of which, because if he crushes it, even if he loses, Mendelssohn is redeemed.

For Windstar to sell Noble Indy wouldn't be odd. For Coolmore to buy Noble Indy wouldn't be that odd (though a little odd). For Pletcher to run a rabbit for Vino Rosso wouldn't be odd.

There are no coincidences in money. The more money at stake, the more manipulation and machinations involved. The war for the replacement Scat Daddy began 3 years ago. The derby turned that into a war between Coolmore and WindStar. Coolmore is notorius in its ability to hold a grudge, just ask Godolfin. They are playing the long game.
Boy, that's sure reading a lot into something. The far, far more likely scenario is that Coolmore offered $60m (including kickers) for the horse and WinStar was considering (only a fool doesn't consider $60m), and word got out, and it was reported (if a bit of the info was incorrect, such as it being a done deal).

It's absurd to think this was all some false info campaign designed to tarnish Justify. Putting a $60m price tag on him does the opposite. Them wanting to buy him does the opposite. There's no war between them, and Godolphin doesn't have an f in their name.

Finally, he isn't likely to bring in $40m in the first 2 years at stud. Ghostzapper and AP both proved that people won't pay $200k for a first year stallion. Both had to do deals that made the stud fee $100k. With 130 paid stud fees per year, that's $13m per year for 2 years, or $26m. They simply don't pay as much or get as big of books in the Southern Hemisphere, so it's not likely they could make up a $14m difference in making him do double duty.

Last edited by Fager Fan; 05-28-2018 at 05:59 AM.
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:49 PM   #11
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Travers next for Justify??

The crazy thing now = Will they be tempted to run him again after the Belmont??


He had that minor surgery to correct the OCD and he kept having heel cracks, so he wasn't healthy enough to run as a 2yo.

They finally got him to the races on Feb 18 of the 3yo season.

Justify is a once-in-a-generation talent, and Bob Baffert is the best at training a horse into elite condition and ignoring the normal class progression when needed.

He devastated a MDN and an OC75/N1X field in his first two starts and looked like a possible triple crown winner.

Then he ran in the Santa Anita Derby. Horse and Rider messed up and they went too fast entering the backstretch from the first turn. He had a rough lead change turning for home into the top of the stretch and wasn't finishing as smoothly as he had in his first two races. It was disclosed that he threw a shoe. (probably actually the truth, in addition to somewhat aggravating his heel issues). Even with the mistake, he was able to toy with the well-regarded Bolt d'Oro, due to a combination of his talent, and that he was the controlling speed, and that Bolt d'Oro was beginning to show tendency to flatten-out late in graded stakes going 9F+.

Justify entered the Kentucky Derby as a 'single'. Yet he still had to earn it. The weather made the track a mess and he was ridden in part to stay ahead of the kickback. He hooked up into a very fast pace and had to dig-deep to turn back Good Magic who surpassed his expected ceiling and loomed a brief threat. Exhausting effort. One of the all-time great Kentucky Derby performances.

The all-out super effort also badly aggravated his heel issues. He was lame the next day. Baffert told the media a yarn about 'scratches'. Initially tried to put 3/4ths of a shoe on the bad hoof but it didn't do the trick. They called in a hoof-reconstruction and shoeing expert. Fortunately he was able to do an excellent job of allowing Justify to continue to race. I don't know to what degree they had to medicate Justify for lameness, hoof work, and pain. His condition slightly deteriorated between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but he was able to do some hard-held gallops in the days leading up to the Preakness, and it was evident that he'd gotten past the lameness and had a hoof to run on and good chance to gut-out a Preakness win.

A stud deal was readied. The plan was clear; Win the Preakness get the deal finalized. Win the Belmont. Publicly announce that he'd be pointing to the Travers and Classic. If the hoof was OK they would go ahead and add a winning Breeders Cup Classic to his resume. If he wasn't absolutely thriving before the Classic, they'd publicly announce his retirement.

He gutted-out a Preakness win. The hoof held up very well. He came out of the race well.

The stud deal was finalized.

Several days after the Preakness he was already in better condition than he had been prior to the Preakness. He's set to have a 4F work between 6/1 and 6/4. He looks primed to win an uncontested Belmont Stakes. He will win by a large margin if the pace is slow, or should the pace be honest, perhaps one or two stretch-runners will cut the margin to 1-3 Lengths at the finish line while at no point posing a threat.

After he wins the Belmont in uncontested fashion, the narrative will be that he "prefers a fast track". You see, Justify simply does not like that mud. There will be even less mention of his issues than the very brief mention before the Preakness. His surface preference will explain his improvement. This will also be repeated ad nauseam in the message boards by the same guys who got on the 'form-cycle' bus.

The fun thing in all this, is that there will be some temptation to point to the Travers now. While that's not the greatest thing for Ax Man who has for now inherited the Baffert ace schedule, it's interesting for racing fans. We may get to see our Triple Crown hero run again after the Belmont.
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Old 05-28-2018, 02:03 PM   #12
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It would be cool to see Justify win the belmont and then go on to win the breeders cup, just as Ghostzapper and Awesome Again did (BC). I think he takes more after the dams side of his pedigree. Not that winning positions are genetic, but close enough.
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Old 05-28-2018, 02:37 PM   #13
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I'd expect to see Justify do the same campaign as American Pharoah : Haskell, Travers, BCC.

As long as his hoof is ok.
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Old 05-28-2018, 04:12 PM   #14
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I'd expect to see Justify do the same campaign as American Pharoah : Haskell, Travers, BCC.

As long as his hoof is ok.
I have nothing to base this on other than watching the races, but I think Ax Man will wind up being Baffert's Haskell horse.
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Old 05-28-2018, 05:20 PM   #15
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I have nothing to base this on other than watching the races, but I think Ax Man will wind up being Baffert's Haskell horse.
Would Monmouth add some kind of bonus if there is a triple crown winner? Baffert loves those appearance fees.
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