Justify’s Form Cycling Downward

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

BRIS Speed Figures

Mdn 54k 100
OC75k/n1x-N 104
SA Derby-G1 114
KyDerby-G1 102
Preakness-G1 98


“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” - James Quinn


Justify gave Baffert four triple digit efforts, reached the peak of his form cycle in the Santa Anita and he is now trending downward – first time under triple digits.

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports...urel-or-yanny/

[Tom]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.

How did you get the pace fig from BRIS before it comes out in PPs?
I've only ever seen the SR given.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Tom

How did you get the pace fig from BRIS before it comes out in PPs?
I've only ever seen the SR given.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._available_123

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._available_123

yikes

lot of vultures on those preview PPs, but only 1 lion.

Either Lukas or Asmussen would need to sacrifice a nice horse (Bravazo, Tenfold) who otherwise look to run a nice race chasing, or someone would need to enter a rabbit. Fair to openly question whether even entering a rabbit would be 'discouraged'.

Meanwhile, Justify's physical condition is already better than it was at any time between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

yikes

lot of vultures on those preview PPs, but only 1 lion.

Either Lukas or Asmussen would need to sacrifice a nice horse (Bravazo, Tenfold) who otherwise look to run a nice race chasing, or someone would need to enter a rabbit. Fair to openly question whether even entering a rabbit would be 'discouraged'.

Meanwhile, Justify's physical condition is already better than it was at any time between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

They don't "need" to do anything. The 1 1/2 miles, third race in five weeks, declining form, and hard race in the Preakness is almost certainly enough to make Justify vulnerable.

The other connections should just assume he will stop and figure out where they want to be when he does.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

They don't "need" to do anything. The 1 1/2 miles, third race in five weeks, declining form, and hard race in the Preakness is almost certainly enough to make Justify vulnerable.

The other connections should just assume he will stop and figure out where they want to be when he does.

*Yawn*

[Blenheim]

Overexertion

When a horse runs or does other hard work within the safe limits of its capacity, its ears prick toward the path ahead, or turn backward to the voice of rider or driver. Under heavy strain that is close to the threshold of physical crisis, the ears flatten from base to tip along the head. The nose reaches straight out, reddened nostrils flaring to receive maximum oxygen. Muscles bunch and, in thin-skinned breeds, veins swell conspicuously all over the body and particularly on the neck and around the eyes and face.

With the approach of exhaustion, the head “lugs” down in fatigue, alternately coming up for air and falling once more. The stride slows. Then the mouth opens and gasping begins and the ears flop sideways, the animal is literally in a struggle to survive, having been pushed too far. At this point, with the horses’ attention concentrated on taking in air rather than on work, the likelihood of a misstep and a snapped leg increases. And unless the animal is allowed to stop work at once, chances increase that its efforts will end with heart failure or internal hemorrhage. The Body Language of Horses - Ainslie, Ledbetter 1980

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Just to note, BRIS has the pace for the Preakness considerably faster than the Derby.

Understand that the E2 pace rating at 10 furlongs is the one mile call and not the 6 furlong call as the Preakness is, but the 6 furlong call was also rated at 102.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

That is where you need the speed component. It was no fluke obviously he was heavily bet in the SA Derby despite not having faced much class wise.

The toughest part of "class handicapping" for me is the lightly raced maiden or allowance horse taking on better stakes company for the first time (typically in races for 2yos and 3yos).

Many will be overmatched when they try a tough stakes even if they have comparable or better speed figures than the stake horses. Some will fit right in or even exceed the figures they've been running in ALW races when they are finally asked for their best against better competition.

So how do you figure out what you are dealing with?

Sometimes there are visual clues.

You can see how easily a horse moved past other horses in its races.

If it's a really hot prospect for a really big race you may get a chance to watch it work out "in company". Justify worked in company with Hoppertunity and it was pretty obvious that Justify was a much better horse.

How it does in the stretch is a clue.

If the horses is drawing off in the stretch and winning big in its races that usually a good sign.

The best clue may be who trains it.

If it's a well bred horse trained by Pletcher, Baffert, Brown or someone like that, it's way more likely to jump up when tested than if it's trained by some average guy. The best trainers get the best prospects and they work their horses in company. So they know where to spot them so they aren't overmatched.

If some 3yo NW1 winner is jumping into a stake and he's trained by Pletcher, I'm terrified of that horse even if he looks a little slower on figures. If Joe Blow is the trainer, even if he looks fast enough he might be a toss.

Sometimes I have no idea.

[MadVindication]

I'm going to run like the devil is chasing me and see how I feel after. If I feel fine, Justify is a toss.

[Vinnie]

If you run like the devil you aren't in all likelihood going to feel too well immediately thereafter.....

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

If you run like the devil you aren't in all likelihood going to feel too well immediately thereafter.....

At least I can prove to myself I can give it all I've got.

I've not run in a long time. If we were handicapping "Human Maiden Runs: over 30 years-old, Non-Athletes" my PP would say "pack a day smoker/lung burner"

[MadVindication]

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

Tired Justify aside, where's the horse that's going to both conserve their energy enough to pass him, while keeping up enough lengths to beat him, and actually be willing to pass him?

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

At least I can prove to myself I can give it all I've got.

I've not run in a long time. If we were handicapping "Human Maiden Runs: over 30 years-old, Non-Athletes" my PP would say "pack a day smoker/lung burner"