|
|
02-28-2019, 04:30 PM
|
#46
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
The wealth of stats in the book, which as you say are from Ken Massa, are impressive. In my opinion, I think readers have to be cautious of taking all of the statistics as gospel. They have to be viewed in the right context. As an example, generally speaking, Massa's stats show that blinkers off did better in both ROI and Impact Values than blinkers on. But I personally much prefer blinkers on. I've have quite a few scores over the years where I felt that the reason the horse won the race was mainly because it improved sharply in blinkers. And often the horse was a longshot.
Taking blinkers of a horse can certainly be beneficial in certain situations. Trainers sometimes like to stretch a horse out, for instance, and they'll take the blinkers off to try to get the horse to relax because they want to take it back off the pace. Or, they may be trying to wake the horse up in a future race by putting the blinkers back on.
But my point is, if you know how to use blinkers on, it can be a potent longshot angle. I learned a lot about thoroughbred handicapping from hanging out and working alongside sharp handicappers like Brad Thomas and Paul Cornman, who are both excellent trip handicappers. Brad, for instance, closely watches how young horses run in their first few starts: how green they are, how long their stride is, whether they shy from horses, whether they seem to get nervous running inside of horses, how they handle kick back, etc. Consequently, he has a good feel for which horses will benefit from adding blinkers.
|
For me it’s always been blinkers on for young inexperienced horses, blinkers off for older more experienced types. The book didn’t break it down by age of horse
Allan
|
|
|
02-28-2019, 05:01 PM
|
#47
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMeadow
Hello PA people, and thanks to Replay Randall for sending me a note about this thread.
The 445-page Skeptical Handicapper not includes dozens of computer studies (the vast majority by Ken Massa of HTR) on many handicapping topics, but also my views on various handicapping methods and topics based on my more than twenty years of playing full-time. I believe that many of the results will prove surprising to many players. Just a few:
Looking at more than 44,000 favorites, those ridden by jockeys with more than 20% wins performed just about identically vs. jockeys with fewer than 10% wins.
Are first-time starters intimidated by starting from the rail? Not according to the results we found.
In every category, no matter how far the class drop vs. a class raise, droppers recorded an ROI more than 5% better than risers.
Old-time handicapping angles such as best last-race speed figure, earnings per start calculations, and form-consistency ratings have been thoroughly analyzed by the crowd and won't get the money in 2019.
I think that experienced players will get much more out of the book than beginners. For instance, I explain how to watch replays correctly (looking for trouble is a waste of time), how to find vulnerable favorites and live longshots, and which questions to consider in different types of races. But it's no fast read or get-rich-quick book.
The book is scheduled to be shipped March 21, and I'll be happy to autograph the book for anyone ordering through my website, trpublishing.com. You can read a copy of the Introduction there, or look at early chapters on the Amazon site if you have a free Kindle Cloud Reader.
|
Thanks for stopping by, Barry....
|
|
|
03-01-2019, 07:42 AM
|
#48
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
For me it’s always been blinkers on for young inexperienced horses, blinkers off for older more experienced types. The book didn’t break it down by age of horse
Allan
|
I agree, with the older horses, you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Some of these smaller barns do use blinkers on/off as changes just to keep the horse guessing (IMO).
|
|
|
03-02-2019, 02:02 PM
|
#49
|
dch
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: New York City
Posts: 8
|
Two points, (1) I have a Kindle from fathers day 2009 (obviously a gift) and I recently downloaded a copy of the current App. 'All' of the documents I have purchased were listed and became immediately available. I am not a technical expert on Kindle, but I can say that I have consistently utilized the same Amazon account through the past years. 'Every Kindle purchase I mae came up, including same 'Sample' items based on books/documents (i.e., authors, etc.) over the years.
Point (2) I have completed reading the 'new' Meadows manuscript and I agree with Pandy that there is not much 'new' included for those that have studied and experienced racing and handicapping for many years. It is however at very good read for the individuals who are 'newer' to the game and do not have a tremendous amount of experience with 'computer assisted analysis and handicapping'. The larger the sample size the better.
We all have our theories and processes on how to address 'profitability' in racing. I have 'no' specific disagreements with anything presented. The KM HTR supported effort(s) are excellent, as to be expected.
My main negative however is in the 'tone' of the document. I read about 990 (kindle locations) 12% of the text immediately when I purchased it. When I finished that portion for the night, I felt that the text was 'extremely depressing'. I completed reading it the next day, and I retained this feeling of depression. I want to emphasize, not depressed by the author or the technical content of the manuscript, but by the 'tone' of how it was presented.
Perhaps it is just me, but after some thirty-five plus years of reading racing and handicapping tomes, I do not remember one that left me with a negative feeling of the game (and obviously our chances) of a long-term positive winning experience. Whether it be Ansile, Quirin, Brohammer, Quinn, Beyer (and many others) their manuscripts were presented to readers with, not a method or process to 'master the game', but with hard work (research, analysis, etc.) a road map to follow to attain some success and profitability.
In summary, hard and difficult, but at the very least 'positive' reads.
This book, as an associate said to me, is very much a glass half empty.
Perhaps it is just me, not a normally depressive individual. Lets hope I am incorrect.
Thank you.
dch
03/02
13:46.31..31
|
|
|
03-02-2019, 06:44 PM
|
#50
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dexter C. Hinton
My main negative however is in the 'tone' of the document. I read about 990 (kindle locations) 12% of the text immediately when I purchased it. When I finished that portion for the night, I felt that the text was 'extremely depressing'. I completed reading it the next day, and I retained this feeling of depression. I want to emphasize, not depressed by the author or the technical content of the manuscript, but by the 'tone' of how it was presented.
Perhaps it is just me, but after some thirty-five plus years of reading racing and handicapping tomes, I do not remember one that left me with a negative feeling of the game (and obviously our chances) of a long-term positive winning experience. Whether it be Ansile, Quirin, Brohammer, Quinn, Beyer (and many others) their manuscripts were presented to readers with, not a method or process to 'master the game', but with hard work (research, analysis, etc.) a road map to follow to attain some success and profitability.
In summary, hard and difficult, but at the very least 'positive' reads.
This book, as an associate said to me, is very much a glass half empty.
Perhaps it is just me, not a normally depressive individual. Lets hope I am incorrect.
Thank you.
|
IMO...the time is ripe for a certain degree of "realism" in the handicapping literature that comes up now, during the "computer-betting" age. If today's handicapper wants a "feel-good" sort of book, then he can always pick up one of Dick Mitchell's tomes...where the much-esteemed author narrates how he was able to turn the country's racetracks into his own personal ATMs.
Speaking for myself...I'd rather have the handicapping expert give it to me straight...even at the risk of depressing me.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
|
|
|
03-03-2019, 08:57 AM
|
#51
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
|
if you really want a dose of realism about the game nowadays i suggest you google "benter" and "multilogit regression in horseracing". the amount of intensive labor "those betting teams" put in to make a profit, makes it seem like folly for us "mortals", to compete against them in the parimutuel markets.
|
|
|
03-03-2019, 12:44 PM
|
#52
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
if you really want a dose of realism about the game nowadays i suggest you google "benter" and "multilogit regression in horseracing". the amount of intensive labor "those betting teams" put in to make a profit, makes it seem like folly for us "mortals", to compete against them in the parimutuel markets.
|
To be honest...I am not intimidated by the handicapping prowess of "those betting teams". What bothers me is knowing that our game doesn't have a good record of protecting itself against any unscrupulous acts that might be perpetrated by an "outlaw" hi-tech group. Certain irregularities that I see out there force me to harbor dark suspicions that these during-the-race odds adjustments aren't just due to "multi-logit regressions"...and that's the main cause of my concern.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 03-03-2019 at 12:46 PM.
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 06:36 AM
|
#53
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
but as you can see from my 0 rep power my input is not well regarded on this site. lol
|
That has been taken care of.
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 10:15 AM
|
#54
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
|
highnote. thanks. your act of kindness is appreciated
now i have to say the gambler's prayer,before i start gambling today
"god, please let me break even today, i really need the money".
|
|
|
03-05-2019, 08:01 AM
|
#55
|
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
|
You know whats funny...
A lot of racetracks have casinos associated with them....
In the casinos , you are banned from using any kind of technology...
But
At the racetrack its OK....
What wrong with this picture...
Mike
PS- DAM Acorn , you have more reps than me....Did I lose any by fighting with PA Mike
Last edited by mikesal57; 03-05-2019 at 08:02 AM.
|
|
|
03-05-2019, 08:06 AM
|
#56
|
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
|
I know the answer but its still ironic...
Winning at the casino is taking away from their profits
Winning at the racetrack is taken away from other bettors....
So its OK to steal from one another but not the owners..
|
|
|
03-05-2019, 10:18 AM
|
#57
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I know the answer but its still ironic...
Winning at the casino is taking away from their profits
Winning at the racetrack is taken away from other bettors....
So its OK to steal from one another but not the owners..
|
Winning at the racetrack is a silent private war...
Winning at the casino is an open public war....
|
|
|
03-06-2019, 01:27 PM
|
#58
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
To be honest...I am not intimidated by the handicapping prowess of "those betting teams". What bothers me is knowing that our game doesn't have a good record of protecting itself against any unscrupulous acts that might be perpetrated by an "outlaw" hi-tech group. Certain irregularities that I see out there force me to harbor dark suspicions that these during-the-race odds adjustments aren't just due to "multi-logit regressions"...and that's the main cause of my concern.
|
Thaskalos,
I’m with you. Ever since the Pick 6 scandal,I have always felt there is a group of highly skilled tech guys taking from the game,without putting the spotlight on their activities. With the watch dogs of the game basically incompetent,it doesn’t take much for them to stay ahead of the game.
|
|
|
03-20-2019, 05:07 AM
|
#59
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 8
|
And every angle Barry covers shows a negative ROI except one called QWSLR.. whichs means quality workout since last race..no new ground or revelations appear here..
|
|
|
03-20-2019, 05:09 AM
|
#60
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|