Maximum Security

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Un-Freaking-real


Best horse crossed the line first.


What a shit house decision.

The pps won't show it, but I consider him 5-0.

He's a serious racehorse.

[airford1]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Saez blew that race. Bad enough he swerves to the outside because he knew he was going to be passed, then he swings to the inside because he knew he was going to be passed there.
I'm ok with the disqual.

The trainer blew the race, his horse wasn't ready for the 1 1/4 and the crowd.

[lansdale]

Since this is a day when racing has a much larger audience than usual, and many casual or non-fans bet the favorite or near favorite, I'm guessing this DQ of what was clearly the best horse will go a long way in destroying whatever younger fanbase it might have been hoping to gain. FTR, I no longer play and have a much more limited connection to the game than many who post here, so I can possibly see more what the perspective of an outsider might be. And it doesn't bode well. And BTW, I didn't bet the race.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Saez blew that race. Bad enough he swerves to the outside because he knew he was going to be passed, then he swings to the inside because he knew he was going to be passed there.
I'm ok with the disqual.

You mean you have an issue with race ride heading?

[FantasticDan]

Serling was right after all

Twitter

[Tom]

Herders belong in cattle fields, not racetracks.
I applaud this rider getting his jollies pulled out from under him.
The little weasel deserves days for this. On top of losing all that
$$$

If you have to heard to win, you are not much of a rider.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Tom

Herders belong in cattle fields, not racetracks.
I applaud this rider getting his jollies pulled out from under him.
The little weasel deserves days for this. On top of losing all that
$$$

If you have to heard to win, you are not much of a rider.

I don’t think he was doing any herding, blocking etc

I think that track was slick as hell......lots of horses falling back in the turns etc.

That track looked terrible. I think he was just a passenger and that horse was skating

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I don’t think he was doing any herding, blocking etc

I think that track was slick as hell......lots of horses falling back in the turns etc.

That track looked terrible. I think he was just a passenger and that horse was skating

on the first bump I agree....when he swerved down to Code of Honor I thought that was clearly intentional.

[Tom]

I still don't like him!

[bobphilo]

When I saw the early fractions quarter and half splits I thought, "Now we'll see what this horse can do with a hot pace" Then he got breather and slowed it down and went 1:12 and change at the 3/4 split. The final time was slow, though and I'm guessing if the top horse had run their races they would have caught him. Hey it's the Derby and always crazy. I'm guessing the figure will come up slow for the race.
The DQ was legit. He caused bad interference and wiped out the chances of those 2 horses and could have caused a serious accident. The winner is the best horse who doesn't break the rules.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Tom

I liked the MAIDEN better this one.
My first toss.
I may never bet another race again.

As usual, most of the so-called great horses looked like plow horse during the race.

I may never bet another race agsin.
I WILL never bet another Derby again.

As always, I will be looking forward to your picks next year.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

on the first bump I agree....when he swerved down to Code of Honor I thought that was clearly intentional.

Everyone seemed to miss that part. He looked like a bowling ball.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by zico20

As always, I will be looking forward to your picks next year.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by Tom

We used to have a horse called Mr. Frog at FL.
Ross Morton called him one day as "hopping up on the rail."


Mr. Frog would have beaten the Baffert plugs today.

I hope there will be a kentucky derby winner with a similar name next year.

Toadus Maximus. Mr. Toady. Kermit's Bane. Anything suitable.

[classhandicapper]

I said from the start of the thread he was all or nothing.

The thing about horses that get loose in slow paces is that YOU CAN'T know for sure what would have happened if they were challenged. What you can do is look at their overall record to see what has happened in the past when the horse was pressured. If he has already been pressured and exposed as a fraud, then you know the favorable trip probably carried him to his win and big figure. The problem is that when a horse is very lightly raced (and especially if undefeated), you have no evidence to go by. You know there's a risk he's a fraud, but he could also be a very good horse that just happened to get one or more good setups. If challenged and asked for more early, he may have way more speed in the tank than you bargained for and be able to carry it. You can't just automatically deduct from his figure or something. That's definitely wrong.

This happens all the time.

Even Mitole was similar.

Everyone read Beyer's insights about looses leads/slow paces years ago and now the conventional wisdom is that every horse with a loose lead last out can be downgraded. That's nonsense. Many horses that got loose leads benefit from it and should be downgraded, but some are simply very good horses that will actually run faster early and sustain it if asked for more. The challenge is knowing what you are dealing with before the outcome. That's no easy task.

I didn't play him, but I knew that people that were tossing him were taking a bigger risk than they appreciated.