Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Projection of Kavanaugh vote----> 53-47 for confirmation....and yes, that means 1 or more Dems are flipping to confirm...
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How is this projection being made?
The three Repugs to watch for, of course, are the Flake, Collins, and Murkowski.
Heitkamp and Manchin from the Dims are going to sit and wait to see how these three vote
before they vote.
If two of these three Repugs vote to pass Kavanaugh, the two Dims will as well.
At that point, it's all for show because it doesn't matter how any of the Dims vote.
But if two of these three Repugs vote against passing Kavanaugh, the two Dims will tow the party line and Kavanaugh's nomination will be stalled.
So the two Dims aren't really a factor.
It's all down to Jeff Flake, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski.
Either at least two of them will vote in favour of passing Kavanaugh or at least two of them will vote against passing Kavanaugh.
At this point, that's
ALL that matters, given that everything else is in place.
Since, at the present time, no one
KNOWS how these three Repugs will vote, these "expert" projections aren't worth the bandwidth they are taking up.