Tampa Derby - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

zico20 · 03-08-2024, 09:55 AM

What we have here is two big favorites and eight longshots. Are they going to run 1-2, get split, or is someone going to upset both of them. Unless one of them throws in a total clunker hard to see either out of the super.

HEARTENED 10-1 ML Stole his maiden win in close to a front running win in slow fractions in only a six horse field at 2-5. Pletcher horse is going to have to come from far back against these. Has a shot to hit the tri or super as he looks better than a few of these.

EVERDOLT 30-1 ML He is at least going to make the early part interesting as I see him sprinting for the lead but doubt he is anywhere close at the end. Pass

GIVE ME LIBERTY 30-1 ML Still a maiden after three starts and let Dimatic blow by him and he came back to be up the track in the Rebel but was also only three and a half lengths behind Common Defense two back who ran well in the Rebel. While his Brisnet figures have improved each start would need another leap forward to hit the bottom of the tri or super but not impossible.

GOOD MONEY 15-1 ML Debut maiden winner now stretches out but gets a big class test today. Had the perfect set up but hard to see that playing out today. Hard to endorse!

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 8-5 ML Big rebound from his Remsen debacle but those slow fractions from the Holy Bull aren't repeating today. Will be further back than I think he wants to be but has a huge class edge over everyone but No More Time. If he improves off the last race he is the one to beat. The pick!

CAITRE VIZCAYA 30-1 ML Seems like a sprinter to me and those last two were awful. Will be hard pressed to beat a single horse. Pass

NO MORE TIME 7-5 ML It looks clear that he wants to be on the front to do his best running and I don't think he gets it. He can always hope the jockey falls off Everdolt again.

One of the top contenders but tread cautiously about thinking he is a sure thing to be in the exacta.

CRAZY MASON 12-1 Didn't run a step in the Sam Davis and is making his eight start already. Obvious his best races are sprinting. Seems up against it today! Not much to like!

GRAND MO THE FIRST 12-1 ML Here is my longshot to be in the trifecta and possibly win it all. I think he is crying out for more distance and if he is then a huge race is in store. Looks solid!

STURDY 8-1 ML Still a maiden after three starts and was no match for Domestic Product two back. This one will be closing in the lane and can finish up the super or fifth for the super Hi 5.

My selections are

That Super Hi 5 could pay a grand for a buck. That is worth the $24 risk keying the five on top of those four.

Sparky13 · 03-09-2024, 09:59 AM

No More Time,

Domestic Product,

Heartland

PalaceOfFortLarned · 03-09-2024, 10:35 AM

certainly look to standout in this field, but they aren't exactly running lights out numbers where they should be dueling 6/5 or so favorites in this field.

have every right to make a big move forward here and get the win.

Sturdy, while still a Maiden, is the most interesting to me. Weaver turns him back off of 2 weeks rest after a 4 month layoff.

beat him rather handily back in October at Aqueduct, but that is a long time ago for developing 3YOs. If an honest pace can develop he should be in the mix late while getting a cut back in distance.

zico20 · 03-09-2024, 04:09 PM

I made my bet and I changed it up. The more I looked at the race the more I think it is not going to be chalky. So here is my $140 bet. All Super High 5!

with

Boy would I love it to come in

five-eighths · 03-09-2024, 05:01 PM

box

:

box

With

with

PalaceOfFortLarned · 03-09-2024, 05:45 PM

WP
EX
//ALL

PalaceOfFortLarned · 03-09-2024, 05:51 PM

Unreal.

They are gonna run, and you can't wager.

speldedo · 03-09-2024, 05:55 PM

That's horse racing today - sucks

PalaceOfFortLarned · 03-09-2024, 06:00 PM

East Coast tote outage affecting multiple tracks.

TimeAndMotion · 03-09-2024, 06:02 PM

I had the Super... on paper.

I'm chalking this up as my biggest "Bad Beat" in 40+ years of wagering on tbreds.

zico20 · 03-09-2024, 06:08 PM

I have about had it with horse racing. Last week I looked forward to a great FOY and all the good horses get scratched and then so excited about the Tampa Derby and you can't bet it. This is bullshit! Yes, I would have lost but the fun of handicapping is gone when you aren't sure there will be enough horses or a problem that cancels wagering.

One last rant, I knew it was coming, it always does. When I spread the two favorites run first and second 99 out of a 100 times. It literally never fails. Seriously, how can it happen every time. I am just frustrated with the last two weeks.

PhantomOnTour · 03-09-2024, 06:12 PM

I'm still waiting to get paid for hitting R10.
It's not a big score ($15 win on a 5-2 horse) but I'm beginning to wonder if they're going to stick me with a refund instead of a payoff.
It may pay more or less than 5-2 also...who knows

#shouldershrug

speldedo · 03-09-2024, 06:29 PM

Please wager early (and I mean early) to avoid being shut out

PalaceOfFortLarned · 03-10-2024, 10:20 AM

Well, I certainly hope all the winners got paid.

And when it was all said and done, that was an exciting, yet awful race. :25.25 and :51.14 going out and 1:45.47 for 8.5F. Those are glacial fractions one would expect for a 12F turf race.

Only horse I'm even thinking about going forward is the

that was actually making up some ground late.

Track simply wasn't that slow as 3YO+ Fillies and Mares ran 7F in 1:22.04, and Skippylongstocking ran an easily controlled jaunt at the same distance in 1:43.12.

Maybe the track drastically changed during the hour delay.

zico20 · 03-10-2024, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Well, I certainly hope all the winners got paid.

And when it was all said and done, that was an exciting, yet awful race. :25.25 and :51.14 going out and 1:45.47 for 8.5F. Those are glacial fractions one would expect for a 12F turf race.

Only horse I'm even thinking about going forward is the

that was actually making up some ground late.

Track simply wasn't that slow as 3YO+ Fillies and Mares ran 7F in 1:22.04, and Skippylongstocking ran an easily controlled jaunt at the same distance in 1:43.12.

Maybe the track drastically changed during the hour delay.

If I am the owner of the

Castellano would never ride him again. What was he thinking with a speed horse running behind the

in 116 and 1/5th. He should have accelerated at the five furlong mark and hope to catch the

off guard instead he turned it into a two furlong sprint instead of a 3.5 furlong dash. If No More Time can't win running on the lead against this field in 114 flat he has no business on the Derby trail. Remember it was Castellano who thought he gave Mage a great ride in the Preakness sitting three lengths off a pedestrian pace against National Treasure. He simply isn't any good judging the pace of a race.