Belmont: Thursday, October 19, 2017

[Teach]

Race One:

My top pick, 5 Factorial, was scratched
Others: , , ,

Race Two:

Moving on to the 2nd race, the second-half of the Early Double, I’m going for a hoped-for completion of a “Double-Nickel”. Yes, my pick in this in the 40k claiming turf-route race is VASILIKA. In this Skip Away-bred chestnut filly’s last race at Belmont, she finished 6th against allowance company. Yet, a few races back at “The Spa,” this filly came up against this very same claiming company…and won. I look for the meet’s leading rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., to have this 3 year-old out and going when the gates unlatch. This filly’s trainer, the Auburn, NY native (I remember “the singing bridge” over the Owasco River), Dave Connizzo, does a very good job with horses that were beaten-favorites in their last. If all goes well, this Marquetry-bred should be either on the lead, or sitting a stalking trip. Others: , ,

Race Three:

My pick here in this state-bred allowance sprint is FROST WISE. This Frost Giant-bred chestnut filly finally broke her maiden after six tries in state-bred MSW company. Yet, it should be noted that this filly has been competitive in all but one of her lifetime races. Yes, she now moves up to face winners. However, I believe this Michael Dilger (he once served as an assistant to Todd Pletcher) trained filly will be equal to the task. This filly has been “on the shelf” since the aforementioned win up at “the Spa” in late August. Yet, Dilger has a very good record with horses that have been “on vacation”. He also does well with maiden winners in their last race. Look for her pilot, Luis Saez, to have this grand-daughter of Giant’s Causeway to be out and going when the gates open. Others: 2, 3, 1

Race Four:

I’m looking “outside” in this 7-panels, 40k turf race. My pick is: FEEL THE BERN. The Brushwood Stable’s trainer, Monsieur Christophe Clement, has tried this colt on the main – with limited results. In his last two, he was “bumped”. Those races coming after a first-time try on the lawn at today’s seven panels (the colt finished a fast-closing 3rd in that one). Well, as they say in Paris: “Herbe.” It’s back to the lawn. I believe the change of surface will do the trick. This colt, especially “on the bottom,” has a solid turf pedigree. The colt’s dam, Storm Beauty, had three turf winners from 10 starters. Clement does very well with both 1st-time Lasix and horses going dirt to turf. Irad Ortiz, Jr. reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Five:

VICKY’S DANCER, the Steve KLasaris trainee, gets me nod in this 6-panels 25k claiming turf sprint. This 8 year-old Disco Rico-bred mare has been most competitive in turf sprints. She’s hit the board in all three of her recent races. She finished 2nd in her last against tougher. At believe this Citidancer-bred can be most competitive at this level. This Glitterman-bred has hit the tote in approx. 75% of her turf tries. The aforementioned Klesaris does very well with horses entered in claiming races. Jose Lezcano reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Six:

In this state-bred MSW route, I’m picking NEW YORK HERO. This Linda Rice-trainee was a fast-closing 2nd at 5 and ½ panels up at “The Spa” at the end of August. I believe today’s the over 2-panels stretch-out should do wonders for this Mineshaft-bred’s colt’s chances of garnering his first win. I believe this colt’s lineage, e.g., A.P. Indy, says he should “get” the one-mile distance. The meet’s leading jockey, Irad Ortiz, Jr. reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Seven:

My pick in this claiming turf-route is IRON POWER. This Mizzen Mast-bred 7 year-old gelding failed as the slightly better than 2-1 favorite in his last up at Saratoga about one month ago. I believe this Cozzene-bred grey can mount a late-closing charge that will result in his getting his picture taken. Rudy Rodriguez – he does well with beaten favorites – is this gelding’s trainer. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Eight:

In this 7-furlongs OC on the Widener Turf Course, I’m going with RUMBLE DOLL. This Street Cry-bred bay mare won her last at six panels up at Saratoga a little over one month ago. Well, this mare’s trainer, Bob Falcone, Jr, (how are snickers and cannoli, barn “pets”?) does well with horses who won their last race. I believe this Little Buttercup-bred will appreciate the added panel of today’s race. Joel Rosario reprises the ride. Others: , ,

Race Nine:

In the finale, I’m picking CLONEDSIMMARD in this 6-panels 25k MC sprint. This M/L longshot is trying the dirt again after three up-the-track finishes on the lawn. This Leah Gyarmati-trainee has faced better throughout his career. I believe both the change of surface and drop in class makes this 3 year-old “a player”. Eric Cancel is in the irons. Others: , ,