Stock Market Prediction

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I'll preface this post by pointing out I have a somewhat limited knowledge of the market.

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription.

I've been pleased with their recommendations and service overall. (Imo, money well spent.)

But today I ran into a lifetime first -- and the reason I'm making this post.

One of the companies I bought as a result of a Motley Fool recommendation, Shopify (ticker symbol SHOP) ran aground today.

I pulled up Yahoo Finance this morning and noticed SHOP was down about 6.5% shortly after market open.

I thought this kind of odd because, at least at the time, no news stories had been posted.

About 45 minutes into the trading day I saw a video where Jim Cramer basically said "time to sellify Shopify" because of negative news posted on Twitter by Andrew Left of Cintron Research.

Cramer specifically mentioned the video at the following link:
https://t.co/QBKEIVdpTa

I watched the video... and was both amazed and disgusted by what was being said.

(I highly suggest you watch the video.)

FYI, this was the first time in my life that an analalyst -- ANY analyst -- had said anything THAT negative about ANY of the companies I've owned.

In hindsight I fully realize:

I had been periodically picking up shares based on the story... that of an ecommerce technology company with a solid software platform undergoing significant "growth." (Same thing could be said about AMZN early on.)

Apparently, Shopify's "growth" was never driven by the kind of customer base the run up in share price was based on.

If that turns out to be true, or if there is a high likelihood of that turning out to be true:

The correct thing to do is get out.

And that's exactly what I did.

Note to self:

From now on no new shares based on someone else's recommendation alone (no matter how good that someone's track record.)

I resolve to, at the very least, take 5 minutes out of my day -- and actually LOOK at the company's website.



-jp

.

When you said they ran aground, I thought you meant Shopify imploded. The stock is trading at $94 and was $37 a year ago. From what I read, the guy who knocked Shopify, Andrew Left, isn't always right, no pun intended.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i guess you never looked at your favorite stock SFOR today

Wrong again.

[lamboguy]

NFLX- Netflcks is one amazing stock. i met Wayne Rodgers, Trapper from Mash, about 5 years ago and he gave me the stock around $26 and naturally i didn't listen.

[lamboguy]

SFOR down 5.4% today

[AltonKelsey]

That 15 point overnight ES move is what now passes for a crash. And ya'll slept right through it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Buy the dips baby...until it doesn't work anymore...

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by pandy

When you said they ran aground, I thought you meant Shopify imploded. The stock is trading at $94 and was $37 a year ago. From what I read, the guy who knocked Shopify, Andrew Left, isn't always right, no pun intended.

I guess it depends how you define ran aground.

Andrew Left has a decent enough track record with his short calls.... Valeant (VRX) being the one he is probably most known for.

My purchase decision for SHOP was based on:

a. Strong growth prospects for the sector (the cloud slash e commerce.)

b. Strong performance of the company vs. competition within the sector.

c. Impeccable (enough) management and ethos.

FYI, prior to making the initial purchase I did some due diligence... I looked at financial statements which clearly showed the kind of growth that Tom Gardner at The Motley Fool had written about. (Which cemented the idea in my head that Shopify has a great product and is well positioned to take advantage of a growing sector.)

Ok. That checks the boxes for items a and b above.

However, for item c, I was relying on The Motley Fool to have done a better job in the way of due diligence than they did.

After watching the video where Andrew Left suggested the FTC get involved, I went to the Shopify site and saw the "You too can be a millionaire" testimonials he was talking about.

At that point I was having serious enough doubts about the box for item c above being checked - that I decided to get out.

Who knows? Andrew Left comes off (to me) as a sensationalist and SHOP might not be broken after all. It may well have plenty of upside from here.

But until I see better evidence of item c above: I'm out.

Besides, there are plenty of other companies that check boxes a, b, and c above -- that (hopefully) have potential for decent returns of their own.

As to your point Bob, Tom Gardner of The Motley Fool first recommended SHOP back on July 15, 2016 when it was trading for $32 a share. (At today's close it was was $98 a share.)

Why in the hell would anybody in their right mind be complaining about that?



-jp

.

[AltonKelsey]

on 10/11 he says

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

so far the only DONT I see is DONT SHORT

Do I get a cookie?

And what's this rep power of only 2? I know folks are ingrates , but damn

[sour grapes]

the guy is a genius,only just early

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by sour grapes

the guy is a genius,only just early

You only have a rep power of 1.

I think lower is better here.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by sour grapes

the guy is a genius,only just early

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

I hope you haven't been pressing your stock-market bets over the last couple of years.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

I am 100% unwavering in acknowledging that you are 100% unwavering.

Sadly , that 100% has nothing do with what will happen, even if it does.

Don't feel bad, the genii over at ZeroHedge have been predicting the apocalypse for a decade, and have been 150% (adjusted for inflation) wrong.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I'm 100% unwavering in my prediction that the major correction/collapse is now imminent....

Are you buying put options right now?

Are you shorting stocks or ETFs right now??

Have you been buying put options or shorting since before the historic and sensational buy opportunity call generously provided by a member of PA who shall remain nameless for fear of having another idiot say that said poster has a swelled head...

[_______]

Barron’s has an article today suggesting that Interactive Brokers (IBKR) will prosper in today’s low volatility market but really thrive when normal volatility returns.

They also suggest that IBKR is getting ready to challenge the banking industry the same way they have disrupted brokerages.

This isn’t a stock that meets all the rules I have set for an investment but I do like companies run by entrepreneur/founders and Thomas Petterffy has certainly earned my respect. It closed at 49.39 Friday and there is often a pop the Monday after a Barron’s mention.

I don’t expect I’ll actually invest anytime soon but have added this to my watch list. Really just leaving a mark of the price when the idea came to my attention.