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Old 10-08-2017, 04:57 AM   #16
Ray2000
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Update:

Thx JB, but yesterday broke the bank
Bet . . . . . $222 (5 refunds of $3.60 ea)
Returned . $65.73 total on 6 races

This run so far
Bet $740.40 Return $698.52 net -$41.88
Thanks for the 'Goddess of Rebates' to swing it positive

Sunday's Supers ($108)
Pocono R2........ 1 / 5,2,8,4,3
Pocono R6........ 3 / 2,1,4,5,6
Pocono R7........ 6 / 5,3,2,4,1
Pocono R12....... 9 / 5,7,3,4,1
Pocono R14....... 2 / 1,6,3,7,4

Rosecroft R2..... 2 / 1,8,9,5,3
Rosecroft R11.... 5 / 8,6,7,1,2
Rosecroft R13.... 5 / 3,4,2,1,6

Northfield R4.... 4 / 6,7,2,1,3
Northfield R5.... 3 / 4,2,6,1,5
Northfield R6.... 1 / 6,4,5,3,2
Northfield R9.... 3 / 9,1,2,4,5
Northfield R11... 1 / 4,9,6,7,2
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Last edited by Ray2000; 10-08-2017 at 05:04 AM.
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Old 10-09-2017, 04:15 AM   #17
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Update:

Yesterday Wipe Out, no hits . . two $7.20 refunds
lost $93.60

Changing tactics, dropping all races where Top Pick is the Morning Line.

Monday Funday . . . Dime and 20¢* Supers ($120 cost)
Dayton R10....... 4 / 5,2,3,1,6
Dayton R11....... 7 / 5,6,2,1,3

Harrington R8.... 3 / 4,8,7,5,1

Monticello R2.... 4 / 2,1,8,3,5

Pocono R2........ 4 / 3,1,8,2,5
Pocono R6........ 2 / 1,9,3,4,5

Northfield R4.... 5 / 1,4,6,2,3*
Northfield R5.... 2 / 5,7,8,1,3*
Northfield R7.... 3 / 9,8,5,1,2*
Northfield R14... 9 / 4,1,3,2,5*
Northfield R15... 2 / 1,6,4,3,5*

Mohawk R7........ 6 / 1,4,9,2,3*
Mohawk R8........ 2 / 7,3,6,1,4*

To construct the ticket, I'm using 2 program approaches, one geared for Strike rate, the other for Longshots
The 2 bots must agree on top pick.
The bottom numbers are their respective 2nd and 3rd picks plus best post for the track.
To handle duplicates, the lowest un-used post(s) is added to make 5 horses on bottom.
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Last edited by Ray2000; 10-09-2017 at 04:17 AM.
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Old 10-10-2017, 04:54 AM   #18
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Update:

Yesterday 3 hits with a juicy one at Harrington
HAR R8 . . . . . . $173.54
MOH R8 . . . . . . $53.32
NFLD R4 . . . . . . $43.64
Total return . . . $270.50 on $120.00 cost

Total this run $15.02

Tuesday plays ($144 on Supers)
Dayton R4........ 5 / 8,6,7,1,2
Dayton R5........ 4 / 1,2,5,9,8
Dayton R9........ 4 / 7,8,6,5,1

Hoosier R3....... 4 / 3,5,7,2,1

Mohawk R6........ 5 / 8,4,2,3,6
Mohawk R9........ 1 / 2,3,5,6,4

Monticello R8.... 3 / 1,6,7,2,4

Northfield R4.... 1 / 3,5,6,9,2
Northfield R9.... 9 / 1,7,8,2,3
Northfield R10... 5 / 2,3,7,1,4
Northfield R12... 5 / 8,2,6,3,1
Northfield R14... 3 / 2,9,7,1,4
Northfield R15... 1 / 8,2,3,4,5

Pocono R6........ 4 / 1,3,5,2,6
Pocono R9........ 5 / 9,1,7,4,2
Pocono R14....... 4 / 3,7,6,1,2
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Last edited by Ray2000; 10-10-2017 at 04:58 AM.
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Old 10-11-2017, 04:50 AM   #19
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Update:

3 Hits, all 20¢'ers
NFLD R4 . . . .$11.66
NFLD R10. . . .$21.58
NFLD R14. . . .$30.08

Lost -$80.78
This run to date, $-65.76 on $1,098 bet, 0.94 ROI

Wednesday's Supers ($54 cost)
Dime
Monticello R4.... 1 / 6,2,9,3,4
Monticello R5.... 4 / 2,5,3,1,6
Monticello R9.... 2 / 5,8,1,4,3
20¢
Northfield R5.... 1 / 4,9,3,2,5
Northfield R10... 5 / 4,1,7,2,3
Northfield R14... 9 / 1,7,4,2,3
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Old 10-11-2017, 11:40 AM   #20
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Slow day, adding a few other 20¢ Supers for Wednesday

Batavia R5....... 4 / 3,2,1,5,6
Batavia R8....... 3 / 2,6,4,1,5
Batavia R9....... 1 / 5,7,3,2,4

Flamboro R8...... 5 / 8,2,4,1,3

Pompano R2....... 6 / 7,4,3,5,1
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Old 10-12-2017, 04:56 AM   #21
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Results:

Yesterday, 3 hit, 3 had refunds
Monticello R5. . . $60.75
Batvia R5. . . . . $14.40
Pompano R2 . . . $17.26
. . . . . . . . . . . . $92.42 return on $103.20 bet
Lost -$10.78
This run to date, $-76.54 on $1,201 bet, 0.94 ROI

Thursday's Supers
Dayton R8........ 3 / 7,5,4,9,1

Harrington R6.... 4 / 6,7,8,1,2

Monticello R6.... 2 / 8,3,7,1,4
Monticello R8.... 1 / 5,2,8,3,4
Monticello R11... 4 / 1,3,5,2,6

Mohawk R8........ 3 / 5,8,1,6,2
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Old 10-13-2017, 04:41 AM   #22
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Update:

1 teeny tiny hit, Monti R11 paid a record low(?) $2.60
dropped the run's ROI to 0.907, (0.88 is stop loss point)

Supers for Friday the 13th

Dayton R3........ 5 / 4,2,6,1,3
Dayton R6........ 4 / 5,2,8,1,3
Dayton R7........ 5 / 1,8,3,6,2
Dayton R10....... 6 / 2,7,3,4,5

Freehold R4...... 3 / 5,2,1,6,4

Mohawk R5........ 6 / 4,3,1,2,5

Vernon R6........ 5 / 6,3,4,1,2
Vernon R7........ 5 / 6,4,1,2,3
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Old 10-13-2017, 06:22 AM   #23
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Ray, MOH/WDB tracks , highest win%, ROI, impact value factors....esp. beaten fav angle? Thanks in advance

Last edited by tyler522; 10-13-2017 at 06:33 AM.
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Old 10-13-2017, 07:51 AM   #24
Ray2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler522 View Post
Ray, MOH/WDB tracks , highest win%, ROI, impact value factors....esp. beaten fav angle? Thanks in advance
I have some data for beaten faves at Moh/Wdb but the sample size is getting too small to be significant.
That's why I use all starters, all tracks.
example:
The Mohawk ROI is skewed by the Horse "Gold Rush" on Sep 4 who was a beaten fave at Clinton but won next start at the Hawk, paying $110.70
Take away that win and the ROI for Mohawk is more like 0.85

Code:
	Starts	Wins	Win%	IV 	ROI
MOH	580	110	0.19	1.61	0.97
WDB	178	31	0.17	1.47	0.61
YR	649	116	0.18	1.39	0.68
The other factor IVs wouldn't mean much either.
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Old 10-13-2017, 07:57 AM   #25
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Thanks again
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Old 10-14-2017, 05:18 AM   #26
Ray2000
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Results:

Yesterday, 1 hit at Dayton R3 $10.99
ROI has dropped to .88, it's win today or back to the drawing board.

Supers for Saturday (a lot of 5's)
Batavia R4....... 5 / 1,7,2,3,4
Batavia R5....... 1 / 5,4,7,6,2
Batavia R9....... 1 / 6,3,7,5,2

Flamboro R2...... 4 / 1,5,7,2,3
Flamboro R3...... 5 / 6,7,8,2,4
Flamboro R5...... 5 / 4,2,3,1,6

Dayton R3........ 5 / 2,8,7,1,3
Dayton R6........ 5 / 4,8,7,1,2
Dayton R8........ 5 / 3,9,1,8,2
Dayton R12....... 5 / 3,4,6,1,2
Dayton R14....... 4 / 6,8,1,5,2

Freehold R6...... 5 / 7,1,6,2,3
Freehold R8...... 3 / 2,1,7,4,5

Hoosier R1....... 4 / 3,2,6,5,1

Pocono R2........ 3 / 4,7,1,2,5
Pocono R5........ 3 / 6,1,4,7,2

Rosecroft R5..... 5 / 3,2,9,1,4

Vernon R4........ 4 / 7,5,6,1,2
Vernon R7........ 7 / 8,6,4,5,1

Northfield R15... 5 / 1,8,4,2,3
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Old 10-15-2017, 05:08 AM   #27
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Yesterday was good so the run continues...
$162 bet $372.94 Return


FLMD . R2 . . . $30.51
FLMD . R5 . . . $39.97
FHLD . R8. . . . $4.68
HOP . .R1. . . $239.92
PCD . .R2 . . . $25.93
PCD . .R5 . . . $31.93

This run to date, $1500.20 return on $1405.20 bet, 1.07 ROI

Supers for Sunday
Pocono R2........ 5 / 1,6,2,4,3
Pocono R12....... 8 / 1,7,2,4,3

Rosecroft R3..... 3 / 6,9,1,5,2
Rosecroft R7..... 1 / 6,4,9,5,2
Rosecroft R8..... 5 / 4,3,9,1,2
Rosecroft R10.... 6 / 4,1,8,5,2

Vernon R5........ 5 / 8,4,1,2,3
Vernon R13....... 4 / 8,9,5,1,2

Northfield R7.... 5 / 7,4,2,8,1
Northfield R14... 2 / 1,9,7,3,4

Pompano R7....... 5 / 4,6,8,1,2

Flamboro R1...... 4 / 9,8,7,1,2
Flamboro R4...... 5 / 4,6,7,1,2
Flamboro R6...... 4 / 3,8,9,1,2
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Old 10-16-2017, 05:12 AM   #28
Ray2000
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Results:

Yesterday skunked,
Don't know what happened to Vernon, no info available
Lost $108

Mondays Supers
Dayton R13....... 5 / 8,4,2,1,3

Mohawk R1........ 6 / 2,7,4,1,3
Mohawk R2........ 8 / 5,1,6,2,3
Mohawk R4........ 9 / 8,3,T,6,1
Mohawk R8........ 7 / 4,5,6,3,2

Monticello R7.... 4 / 6,5,1,2,3

Northfield R5.... 5 / 9,3,8,6,1
Northfield R12... 3 / 9,1,2,4,5

Pocono R9........ 5 / 9,4,2,1,3
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Old 10-16-2017, 04:19 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000 View Post
Don't know what happened to Vernon, no info available

http://www.harnessracing.com/news/ex...wednesday.html
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Old 10-17-2017, 05:34 AM   #30
Ray2000
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Thx Ed, power must have been out a long time.


Yesterday skunked again
2 refunds, lost 75.60, . ROI to date. . 0.92

Tuesday's Supers
Dayton R3........ 3 / 7,5,9,2,1
Dayton R5........ 5 / 2,6,8,1,3
Dayton R7........ 2 / 3,T,6,5,1
Dayton R9........ 3 / 1,6,7,5,2
Dayton R11....... 5 / 1,4,7,2,3

Harrington R2.... 8 / 2,1,3,4,5

Hoosier R1....... 6 / 1,4,5,2,3
Hoosier R3....... 1 / 8,9,5,3,2

Monticello R3.... 5 / 4,3,1,2,6
Monticello R4.... 1 / 7,4,3,6,2
Monticello R5.... 5 / 1,6,2,3,4

Northfield R2.... 1 / 6,2,4,3,5
Northfield R10... 3 / 8,7,2,4,1

Pocono R1........ 4 / 5,1,2,3,6
Pocono R5........ 3 / 9,1,6,5,4
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