2018-2019 HONG KONG

[jay68802]

Race #8:


Dumb Play:

Interesting:

Solid:

[Nitro]

R#7 – 1200M C4 (6F)D……..….. 10-8-2 W/ 1-6-5 - #5 switched w/#2 for solid action throughout as the favorite – no action on #2 / 10-8-5 W/ 1-6-2 ......3:05 AM EST –

5-1-6-12– Big Dutch Win 81% Margin - Passed – $20.30 Quinella & $133.50 Triple / ALL of that one!

[jay68802]

Last one was Race #7, this is Race #8:


Interesting:

Solid:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)D..….… 2-7-1 W/ 3-4-6 ………3:35 AM EST –

1-7-9-6– Big Dutch Win 96% Margin – $32.10 Quinella /

**My Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race. Hit 5 of 5 possible plays & finished today’s card with a healthy 66% O.A. Profit Margin!

[jay68802]

Race #9:


Interesting:

Solid:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)D.…….…. 3-5-10 W/ 1-7-12 ….….4:10 AM EST –

9-2-3-11– Dutch Loss 31% Margin - Passed –

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T......... 7-11-12 W/ 1-3-10 ….….4:45 AM EST –

1-11-3-6– Dutch Loss 180% Margin – Passed – Quota Met – $33.80 Quinella & $228.20 Triple Box

All in all it was a very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 66% and was hit from the first 5 of 5 playable races. There were a few decent Verticals as well

[jay68802]

First night doing this. Enjoyed it, but it is horse racing. Liked that all the connections were dressed in suits and ties. The track looked very well cared for. The horses looked great, well conditioned, and most acted like they had done this before. Interesting was that if a horse had a bad race, the announcers and presumably any one that wanted to, knew what had happened and what the vet had found. I think they all had to run in a trial before the race also.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 5, 2018… 26th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 71 Degrees Cloudy and 40% of showers Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 5.30am ET, 2.30 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181205_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 050 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 5th)
Race 3 Naboo Star (7-1)

Race 087 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 4th)
Race 3 Sunny Dragon (30-1)
Race 5 Namjong Invincible (16-1)

Race 164 (Winners: 3rd & 12th, Second: 10th)
Race 3 Hard Promise (4-1)

Race 091 (Winners: 3rd & 5th, Second: 7th)
Race 4 Royal Racer (14-1)

Race 149 (Winners: 2nd, 4th & 5th)
Race 5 Exceptional Desire (15-1)

Race 085 (Winners: 2nd & 7th, Second: 3rd)
Race 7 Positively High (7-1)

Race 160 (Winners: 4th & 7th, Second: 3rd & 6th)
Race 8 Planet Star (7-1)
Race 8 Vigor Fame (14-1)

Race 098 (Winners: 2nd & 5th, Second: 1st)
Race 9 Rocketeer (18-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 6 Back In Black (30-1)
Race 8 Lucky Girl (9-1)
Race 9 Victory Boys (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Good Companion (5-1)
Race 7 letsgofree (7-1)
Race 9 Glorious Artist (15-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 9 Victory Boys (5-1)
Race 9 Super Chic (5-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 6 Eighty Eighty (21-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Mr Right (4-1)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Naboo Star (7-1): Was bet down to 9-2 in his debut for the Casper Fownes barn, he broke slow then bumped Blitzing who was breaking just underneath him. Whyte settled him near the rear of the field down the backside, he was unable to find room to the rail forcing him three wide in the turn, he then finished evenly in the stretch never making a run at the big winner Country Star. Today picks up the services of leading rider Zac Purton who has been real hot of late for Fownes at the city course, unfortunately drew an outside post with the short run to the first turn.

Race 6 Beauty Loyal (5-1): Has had a ton of trouble in his last two races and yet again finds it again, he reared right before the gate opened causing him to lose a length to the field while breaking from the rail. Soon after coming out of the short turn had to be taken up when he ran right into the rear of Seven Heavens, closed well in the stretch without being asked. Picks up Purton after Size decided to give Bowman the ride on favourite Country Star.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 Back In Black (30-1)
Race 8 The Judge (5-1)
Race 9 Pikachu (10-1)

Key Plays:
Race 3 Naboo Star (7-1)
Race 9 Victory Boys (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 Mickey Rich (12-1)
Race 7 Sparkling Sword (8-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting some pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There will 9 races at Happy Valley ALL on the Turf: (from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class2, (2)-Class3, (4)-Class4 & (2)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 5:30 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for all these races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but these selections generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…….5-2-6 W/ 3-8-9 ….…....….5:30 AM EST –

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T……….. 4-2-3 W/ 1-5-7 …….....…6:00 AM EST –

R#3 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……......5-2-1 W/ 6-10-11 .......6:30 AM EST -

R#4 - 1000M C4 (5F)T….….....6-3-1 W/ 2-8-10 ……...7:10 AM EST –

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….…6-2-7 W/ 4-10-8 …….....7:40 AM EST –

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…….…..3-1-7 W/ 9-8-5 …........…8:10 AM EST –

R#7 – 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..…..5-1-2 W/ 7-10-9 ........8:40 AM EST –

R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…....2-3-6 W/ 4-10-1 …....…9:10 AM EST –

R#9 - 1800M C2 (9F)T……......3-11-2 W/ 5-1-8 ….......9:40 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…….5-2-6 W/ 3-8-9 ….…….5:30 AM EST –

2-5-11-8 – Big Dutch Win 116% Profit Margin- / $40.40 Quin

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T……….. 4-2-3 W/ 1-5-7 …….…6:00 AM EST –

4-3-5-2 – Big Dutch Win 134% Profit Margin / $74.60 Quin & $610.00 Tri / All of that one!

R#3 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……......5-2-1 W/ 6-10-11 ..........6:30 AM EST -

3-2-10-4 – Dutch Loss 103% Profit Margin /

R#4 - 1000M C4 (5F)T….….....6-3-1 W/ 2-8-10 / #8 became favored & substituted for #3 / became 6-1-8 w/3-2-10 ……...7:10 AM EST –

8-2-11-10 – Big Dutch Win 99% Profit Margin / $97.30 Quin

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….…6-2-7 W/ 4-10-8 #10 solid action substituted for #6 (drifting action) / became 7-10-2 w/6-4-8 ……...7:40 AM EST –

10-2-5-8 – Big Dutch Win 106% Profit Margin / $116.60 Quin

**My Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race. Hit 4 out of 5 possible plays & finished today’s card with a healthy 75% O.A. Profit Margin!

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…….…..3-1-7 W/ 9-8-5 …..…8:10 AM EST –

3-11-9-12 – Dutch Win 47% Profit Margin Passed /

R#7 – 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..…..5-1-2 W/ 7-10-9 ........8:40 AM EST –

12-9-2-10 – Dutch Loss 93% Profit Margin Passed – Quota reached /

R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…....2-3-6 W/ 4-10-1 …..…9:10 AM EST –

11-6-5-7 – Dutch Loss 137% Profit Margin Passed – Quota reached /

R#9 - 1800M C2 (9F)T……..…..3-11-2 W/ 5-1-8 …..…9:40 AM EST –

3-5-9-11 – Big Dutch Win 110% Profit Margin Passed – Quota reached / $14.50 Quin

Another very profitable card! My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 75% and was hit from the first 4 of 5 playable races.
If you were to have Quinella boxed the 6 picks in all 9 races the cost would been $270 @ $30/race. The Return was $343.40 or a profit margin of 27% ($73.40).

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 9, 2018… 27th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 62 Degrees Showers 70% of Rain. Wind: N 10 to 15mph

Post time: 11.25pm ET, 8.25pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181209_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 Hot King Prawn (4-5) Had a n easy trip in his last holding off a second place runner Mr Stunning who travelled wide without any cover, going to play against the odds and hope somebody runs with him in the early going.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 146 (Winners: 3rd & 12th, Second: 5th & 10th)
Race 1 Bingo Hero (48-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Namjong Plus (8-1)
Race 3 Amazing Satchmo (14-1)
Race 9 Bold Stitch (48-1)
Race 9 Fast Most Furious (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 1 Supreme Witness (21-1)
Race 6 Dark Dream (6-1)
Race 10 Invincible Fresh (13-1)

Horses for courses running today:
None

Distance specialists running today:
Race 9 New Asia Sunrise (6-1)
Race 9 Raging Storm (2-1)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 1 Picken (4-1): Went off as a 5-2 favourite in his debut effort last racing season with the services of former champion rider Joao Moreira and finished a game third in his next try ran seventh after encountering trouble going 7 at Sha Tin. Was flat footed when the gates opened and took a nice leap out of it costing him at least a length to the field, raced in the back third of the field while getting to save ground on the rail down the backside while the eventual winner Blitzing was loose on the lead. Clipperton moved him to the three path entering the stretch looking for running room but was unable to find it and after that he became rank and started to turn his head to the side, closed well in the stretch after room became available. Now gets Moreira on with him back riding in Hong Kong as the stable rider for the Size barn.

Race 10 Nicconi Express (5-2): Drew the rail for his first try in Hong Kong after easily winning both his starts in Australia. He broke well and was placed in the third flight saving ground early on, moved to the tiring front runner at the top of the stretch and looked poised to win but was passed by the easy winner Noble Steed (#8 in here) with 200 metres left to go. Not a bad effort considering he had been away from the races since last May, now gets Moreira on, not all that excited about the draw though.

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 3 Happy Dragon (4-1)
Race 6 Easy Go Easy Win (6-1)
Race 7 Singapore Sling (11-1)

Key Plays:
Race 1 Picken (4-1)
Race 3 Bigwood (3-1)
Race 5 Mr Stunning (6-1)
Race 9 Fortune Booth (5-1)

Longshot:
Race 6 Time To Celebrate (16-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all on the Turf & 7: W/ 4 Grade-1 events[B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(4)-Grade-1, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (1)-Class-4,

Post Time Race #1 – 11:25 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……...…. 2-4-9 W/ 6-7-5 ….…...11:25 AM EST –

R#2 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…….….… 7-5-3 W/ 9-5-2 …….…11:55 AM EST –

R#3 – 18000M C3 (9F)T…..…… 1-2-7 W/ 8-4-3 .......12:30 AM EST -

R#4 - 2400M G1 (12F)T……..…. 6-1-10 W/ 2-4-11 ….....1:00 AM EST –

R#5 - 1200M G1 (6F)T.……….… 2-5-4 W/ 6-8-3 ….......1:40 AM EST –

R#6 - 1600M C2 (8F)T……...….. 2-8-10 W/ 6-3-4 ……..2:15 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1600M G1 (8F)T……..….. 1-4-14 W/ 2-7-13 ......2:50 AM EST –

R#8 - 2000M G1 (10F)T..……..… 1-9-2 W/ 4-5-7 …...……3:30 AM EST –

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.……….…. 3-2-7 W/ 1-13-9 ….….4:10 AM EST –

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......... 5-8-7 W/ 11-10-1 …....….4:50 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1400M C4 (7F)T……..…. 2-4-9 W/ 6-7-5 ….…...11:25 AM EST –

5-7-8-1– Dutch Loss 43% Margin/PASSED – $172.20 Quinella Box Score!!

[Nitro]

Typo in Race 2

R#2 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……….… 7-5-3 W/ 9-12-2 …….…11:55 AM EST –