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02-16-2019, 11:21 PM
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#511
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 2/17/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 to be run on Turf :
(Classes from top to bottom)
(3)-Class-GR1 , (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4,
Post Time Race #1 12:00 AM SUN EST
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay mo re attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T
.7-8-6 W/ 3-5-1
12:00 AM EST
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T
..2-13-10 W/ 5-12-11...12:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.
.10-1-3 W/ 2-6-11
...1:00 AM EST
(May sub #2, or #11 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T
..6-11-13 W/ 10-2-5
..1:30 AM EST
(May sub #2, #5, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#5- 1400M C2 (7F)T
..3-1-4 W/ 11-5-8
...2:00 AM EST
R#6- 1400M Gr1 (7F)T
...1-2-5 W/ 6-10-9
...2:30 AM EST
R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T
.1-2-8 W/ 6-4-11
...3:05 AM EST
(May sub #4, #6, or #11 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T
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4-6-14 W/ 12-10-5
.3:40 AM EST
(May sub #5, #10, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#9- 1800M Gr1 (9F)T..
1-2-12 W/ 10-5-7
...4:15 AM EST
R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....2-1-10 W/3-12-6
....4:50 AM EST
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02-17-2019, 12:10 AM
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#512
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T
.7-8-6 W/ 3-5-1
12:00 AM EST
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7-10-3-6 BIG Dutch Win 133% Profit Margin / Some late action on the Placer #10
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02-17-2019, 12:17 AM
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#513
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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no need to reply right away.
based on the data, your dutch play covered 56.6% of the win pool (adjusted for, a 15% take out)
that amounts to a $1 payout of $1.74
Your $1 return was only $1.43
so in this case just to break event here, the public 's final odds must be wrong by about 121%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-17-2019, 12:37 AM
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#514
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 At Post Time Odds.
My actual Dutch Calculation at about 5 minutes to post provided a 135% Profit margin.
My only concern is the actual profit in $$$!
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.9 6.4 10.0 BET PRF
$10 $15 $22
$290 $190 $130 $610 $810 133%
$142 $141 $143
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02-17-2019, 12:46 AM
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#515
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T
..2-13-10 W/ 5-12-11...12:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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11-8-2-1Dutch Loss 142% Profit Margin / Some good late action on the Winner, but too late to make a change!
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02-17-2019, 12:51 AM
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#516
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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UPDATE- R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.
.10-1-3 W/ 13-6-11
...1:00 AM EST
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02-17-2019, 01:11 AM
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#517
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
UPDATE- R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.
.10-1-3 W/ 13-6-11
...1:00 AM EST
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1-6-3-11 Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin/ $60.90 Quinella & $339.00 Triple (Quartet - $3,055.80) / ALL of that one!
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02-17-2019, 01:42 AM
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#518
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T
..6-11-5 W/ 10-2-13 - #5 the betting favorite sub for #13
..1:30 AM EST
(May sub #2, #5, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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5-6-14-10 Dutch Win 1% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.40 Quinella
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02-17-2019, 02:20 AM
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#519
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
R#5- 1400M C2 (7F)T
..3-1-4 W/ 11-5-8
...2:00 AM EST
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3-1-2-8 Dutch Win 8% Profit Margin-Passed / $6.50 Quinella
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02-17-2019, 02:45 AM
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#520
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
R#6- 1400M Gr1 (7F)T
...1-2-5 W/ 6-10-9
...2:30 AM EST
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1-2-5-10 Dutch Win -7% Profit Margin-Passed /$4.30 Quinella & $12.40 Triple (Quartet - $39.40) / ALL of that one!
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02-17-2019, 02:53 AM
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#521
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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UPDATE-R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T….1-2-6 W/ 4-8-11 …...3:05 AM EST
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02-17-2019, 03:18 AM
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#522
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
UPDATE-R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T….1-2-6 W/ 4-8-11 …...3:05 AM EST
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1-5-11-10– Dutch Win 77% Profit Margin / No late action on the LS Placer #5
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02-17-2019, 03:26 AM
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#523
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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UPDATE- R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T
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14-5-1 W/ 4-10-7
.3:40 AM EST
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02-17-2019, 03:56 AM
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#524
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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Quote:
UPDATE- R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T
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14-5-1 W/ 4-10-7
.3:40 AM EST
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14-5-11-1 Dutch Win 31% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.80 Quinella
** Dutch Win Quota Reached hitting 3 of 4 playable races which produced an O.A. Profit Margin of 47% (as well as hitting 4 of 4 non-playable with profit margins below 50%)
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02-17-2019, 04:04 AM
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#525
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,005
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UPDATE- R#9- 1800M Gr1 (9F)T..
1-2-10 W/ 12-3-7
...4:15 AM EST
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