|
|
01-16-2019, 05:18 PM
|
#841
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
There was definitely NO blood in the streets this past month or so...I can tell you that.
Only bogus fear-monger headlines...
|
Things were not nearly as bad the past few months as back in 08-09, but still, I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market.
Indicators might not always be correct, but based on the historical records, after a 10 day period of the advancing stocks to declining stocks having a ratio of 2-1 or more, the market increases, on average, by 15% in the next six months.
It might be wrong this time, but the market is more likely to go up than down. So that's the way I'm playing it.
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 08:57 PM
|
#842
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
|
The jig is up. Start shorting.
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 09:01 PM
|
#843
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
The jig is up. Start shorting.
|
It might be time to start shorting. No one really knows.
With the fed being dovish and upward momentum in prices and volume, it seems more likely that the market will go up 15% before it drops 10% or 20%.
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 09:13 PM
|
#844
|
Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
The jig is up. Start shorting.
|
What happened that makes you think the jig is up? Serious question, Tape Reader.
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 09:53 PM
|
#845
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
The jig is up. Start shorting.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
What happened that makes you think the jig is up? Serious question, Tape Reader.
|
I'm also wanting to hear what you have to say, Tape Reader......
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 11:00 PM
|
#846
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I'm also wanting to hear what you have to say, Tape Reader......
|
Home grown stuff. Waves. We may bounce a bit but the rally for the most part is over.
|
|
|
01-16-2019, 11:21 PM
|
#847
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Home grown stuff. Waves. We may bounce a bit but the rally for the most part is over.
|
I think the rally has just gotten started.
As long as interest rates stay low and there is no major unforeseen event the market should go up for the next 6 months.
|
|
|
01-17-2019, 01:56 AM
|
#848
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,812
|
The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...
|
|
|
01-17-2019, 07:50 AM
|
#849
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...
|
Yep
|
|
|
01-18-2019, 07:43 PM
|
#850
|
Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
The above is what makes markets, and makes horses races...
|
Hey wait a minute, who said that?
The Market is on a random walk with an upward trend while horse races likewise act randomly with an upward trend depending on you!
Last edited by Buckeye; 01-18-2019 at 07:56 PM.
|
|
|
01-18-2019, 07:52 PM
|
#851
|
Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
|
Only difference is the Market's upward trend is based upon increased productivity while the successful horseplayer relies upon artistic expression.
Last edited by Buckeye; 01-18-2019 at 07:58 PM.
|
|
|
01-19-2019, 07:14 AM
|
#852
|
Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
|
I know The Vanguard Group is now the largest money management firm in the country thanks primarily to the late Jack Bogle promoting a 'random walk' investment theory ... and I know William Sharp is a Noble Prize winner with his efficient market theory ...
but I bought my very first stock in the late 1970s and I can tell you first hand that stock market investing is neither random nor efficient.
|
|
|
02-04-2019, 09:37 AM
|
#853
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,472
|
Those of you holding SFOR. Big day in court today. Hopefully things go our way.
|
|
|
02-15-2019, 03:38 PM
|
#854
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
|
A month ago I posted that my average target for the S&P is 2811 by June 16, 2019 -- a 15% increase from the close of about 2468 on December 26, 2018. The maximum upside target is 2931.
S&P currently stands at about 2770. There is still some upside remaining, but the big run up might be over. However, if this bull market lasts longer than 6 months and runs through September then there is still another 150 points to the upside to be captured.
I don't have a good probability estimate to the downside, but the old 80/20 rule might apply. There is an 80% chance SP moves higher by June and only a 20% it is lower, black swans notwithstanding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.
Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.
Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.
The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.
So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.
The following indicator is why I am so bullish:
On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.
There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.
The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.
Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.
The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.
Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.
However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.
|
Last edited by highnote; 02-15-2019 at 03:41 PM.
|
|
|
02-19-2019, 11:19 AM
|
#855
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
|
SFOR to zero
Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zero
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|