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Old 02-03-2018, 10:35 AM   #16
Aner
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Picks for 2/3/18 Hope Springs eternal.

Tam 8-----#10 Kaiser d'Light
Tam 8-----#14 Fierce Tide
Tam 10----#6 Triple Serious

GP 1-------#9 Bodhi Dog
GP 3-------#3 King Nephrite
GP 3-------#10 Cotton To
GP 5-------#2 Electrifying
GP 5-------#8 Starship Frontier
GP 7-------#14 Preacher Power
GP 9-------#8 My Point Exactly
GP 9-------#10 Zitman
GP 11------#10 Machtree

SA 1-------#7 Movie Moment
SA 4-------#9 Zuzanna
SA 9-------#7 Sturdy One
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Old 02-04-2018, 12:15 AM   #17
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For the day 0/13 = $26 lost
Overall 0/55 = $110 lost


Tam 8-----#10 Kaiser d'Light
Tam 8-----#14 Fierce Tide---------------scratched
Tam 10----#6 Triple Serious

GP 1-------#9 Bodhi Dog
GP 3-------#3 King Nephrite
GP 3-------#10 Cotton To
GP 5-------#2 Electrifying
GP 5-------#8 Starship Frontier
GP 7-------#14 Preacher Power-----------scratched
GP 9-------#8 My Point Exactly
GP 9-------#10 Zitman
GP 11------#10 Machtree

SA 1-------#7 Movie Moment
SA 4-------#9 Zuzanna
SA 9-------#7 Sturdy One
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Old 02-10-2018, 09:42 AM   #18
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Picks for 2/10/18:

GP 1-----#8 Alyssa and a Lisa
GP 11----#4 Eye of a Jedi
GP 11----#11 Street Copper

Tam 4----#8 Lighthouse Sound
Tam 6----#6 Cinder
Tam 6----#10 Wantagh Queen
Tam 11---#2 Noble Thought

FG 4-----#3 Will Ye Go Lassie
FG 6-----#6 Decant
FG 6-----#10 Tizahandful
FG 8-----#13 Strut N Stomp
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Old 02-10-2018, 07:43 PM   #19
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For the day 0/19 = $20 lost
Overall 0/65 = $130 lost

Picks for 2/10/18:

GP 1-----#8 Alyssa and a Lisa
GP 11----#4 Eye of a Jedi
GP 11----#11 Street Copper

Tam 4----#8 Lighthouse Sound
Tam 6----#6 Cinder
Tam 6----#10 Wantagh Queen
Tam 11---#2 Noble Thought

FG 4-----#3 Will Ye Go Lassie
FG 6-----#6 Decant
FG 6-----#10 Tizahandful
FG 8-----#13 Strut N Stomp ------off turf
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Old 02-17-2018, 10:23 AM   #20
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Picks for 2/17/18

GP 5-----#8 Gift of Glory
GP 7-----#5 Changewilldoyagood
GP 9-----#5 Espresso Caliente
GP 10----#1 Dynatail
GP 12----#11 Creaky Cricket

Tam 4-----#10 House of Cortez
Tam 9-----#5 Bernardinis Arrow
Tam 9-----#12 Lemon Drop Twist
Tam 11----#12 Flax Flower

FG 4------#2 Partly Mocha
FG 4------#8 Imma Bling
FG 8------#4 One Mean Man
FG 8------#7 Applicator
FG 10-----#8 Special Forces
FG 10-----#14 Come On Dover

SA 10-----#4 Plain Wrap
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Old 02-17-2018, 11:24 AM   #21
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tougher than it seems!
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Old 02-17-2018, 11:57 AM   #22
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Real bleak. Has worked in the past and I'm too bullheaded to quit.
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Old 02-17-2018, 02:09 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Real bleak. Has worked in the past and I'm too bullheaded to quit.
It's a game of streaks...

You could be doing great selecting and still be on a bad random streak when dealing with long shots. Then you may hit 2 in a day...

Everyone has an opinion, so I may as well chime in.
I feel like these kind of results are relatively more likely to occur in races with a high degree of randomness/chaos/entropy than in races where I happen to 'like' a longer shot.
I think you already touched on that with your 'Turf' pre-selection, but it could be expanded upon.

What are the main things that cause a chaos race?
Not a question that I have a strong answer to.
-Sometimes a race just doesn't have any dominant horses, so by default, the public bets the 'best' of that bunch...
-The above can be in any race, but sometimes it seems to happen more often than usual in maiden claimers or cheap claimers. Occasionally a full field of 'bad' horses is carded, and it just takes a little bit of a bad trip with the 'most likely' horse, to allow a long shot to wire the field, or a cavalry charge to reward whoever happens to still be running in the stretch...
-Sometimes it's as simple as a type of race. For a while last year, full-field turf sprints at Belmont seemed to often be chaotic.

What are the best types of long shots for these races?
Another question I wish I had the answer to.
-I want long shots that either will be up on the lead(however unlikely they are to get the distance), or long shots that have some semblance of a stretch run((doesn't have to be a 'deep' closer)should the late flow of the race 'move them up'). These long shots tease that they have a chance to at least be in position (on the lead, or with the stretch-runners late), but they generally either have demonstrated some success in recent races at a significantly lower class level, or they have 'proven to be dull' at this level(or above) and would really need to be brave or get a good trip today.
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Old 02-17-2018, 08:07 PM   #24
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What is the record for most losses without a win?


For the day 0/12 = $24 lost
Overall---- 0/77 = $154 lost

Picks for 2/17/18

GP 5-----#8 Gift of Glory
GP 7-----#5 Changewilldoyagood
GP 9-----#5 Espresso Caliente
GP 10----#1 Dynatail--------------------------scratched
GP 12----#11 Creaky Cricket

Tam 4-----#10 House of Cortez
Tam 9-----#5 Bernardinis Arrow
Tam 9-----#12 Lemon Drop Twist------------scratched
Tam 11----#12 Flax Flower-------------------scratched

FG 4------#2 Partly Mocha
FG 4------#8 Imma Bling----------------------scratched
FG 8------#4 One Mean Man
FG 8------#7 Applicator
FG 10-----#8 Special Forces
FG 10-----#14 Come On Dover

SA 10-----#4 Plain Wrap
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:18 AM   #25
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You got me thinking about long shots (not part of my everyday game).

Some for today that seemed to fit my strategy.

GP R5 #2 THOR'S HAMMER
GP R5 #8 STRIKING HEIR
*this was a jump off the page race, as I think the favorite BELLE TAPISSERIE is vulnerable/false, but it may well simply be the 2nd choice ml for Todd Pletcher #4 ZIPPY WILLY- saw a workout video for this one and hinted at a high cruising speed and good fundamentals. Disappointing when you find a false favorite, and the 2nd choice wins... #8 is somewhat cool because took money first time out, is one of the only to show early pace in a race vs many FTS, and goes to hot-hand Irad Ortiz after a freshening.

GP R10 #4 RAHY MOMENTA
GP R10 #5 LADY OF SHADY LANE
GP R10 #6 GRANDTASTIC NEWS

TAM R4 #1 HAND ME THE CASH

TAM R5 #6 NINA'S PATIENCE
*One of the few here who aren't a wire-to-wire prayer. Worth a look at the interesting race placement recently vs winners (still mdn), and the gallop-out in that race.

OP R3 #1 CLASSIC PURSUIT

FG R3 #6 MELLWOOD SUMMER

FG R5 #9 BOLD STAR

FG R6 #4 SWEET IDI
FG R6 #8 SOUL OF THE HERO

FG R8 #2 BRITISH HUMOR
FG R8 #6 KING OF ALL MEDIA
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-18-2018 at 11:22 AM.
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:25 AM   #26
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Quote:
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What is the record for most losses without a win?
Keep swinging
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:53 PM   #27
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Picks for 3/3/18

GP 9-----#6 Electrifying
GP 9-----#10 The Zip Zip Man
GP 13----#10 Run Time

Tam 6-----#7 Vintage Time
Tam 6-----#9 Pep the Champ
Tam 8-----#7 Husband's Folly
Tam 10----#1 Full of Joy
Tam 10----#8 Game Girl

FG 6-------#5 Crackling Bread
FG 8-------#4 Zeke
FG 8-------#5 Golden Dragon

SA 8-------#11 Cynthiana
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:36 PM   #28
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For the day 0/11 = $22 loss
Overall 0/88 = $176 loss


Picks for 3/3/18

GP 9-----#6 Electrifying
GP 9-----#10 The Zip Zip Man
GP 13----#10 Run Time

Tam 6-----#7 Vintage Time
Tam 6-----#9 Pep the Champ
Tam 8-----#7 Husband's Folly
Tam 10----#1 Full of Joy
Tam 10----#8 Game Girl

FG 6-------#5 Crackling Bread-------XXXX, 13.60
FG 8-------#4 Zeke
FG 8-------#5 Golden Dragon

SA 8-------#11 Cynthiana--------------scratched
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:24 AM   #29
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Picks for 3/10/18

Tam 5-----#2 Marksman
Tam 7-----#6 Smart Remark
Tam 9-----#7 Dynatail
Tam 10----#11 Souper Striking

GP 9-------#5 Adventist
GP 10------#1 Cotton To
GP 13------#2 Pretty Perfection
GP 13------#5 Always Thinking

SA 1-------#10 Desert Stone
SA 3-------#7 Temple Keys
SA 8-------#12 Proud Heroine
SA 11------#9 Temple Princess
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:32 AM   #30
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For the day 1/10 = $5.20 profit
Overall 1/99 = $170.80 loss

Picks for 3/10/18

Tam 5-----#2 Marksman
Tam 7-----#6 Smart Remark
Tam 9-----#7 Dynatail
Tam 10----#11 Souper Striking

GP 9-------#5 Adventist
GP 10------#1 Cotton To----------------25.20, 14.60
GP 13------#2 Pretty Perfection
GP 13------#5 Always Thinking

SA 1-------#10 Desert Stone----------scratched
SA 3-------#7 Temple Keys
SA 8-------#12 Proud Heroine
SA 11------#9 Temple Princess---------off turf
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