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Old 01-21-2018, 08:24 AM   #1
formula_2002
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exacta plays that, in the long run, outperform win plays

IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
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Old 01-21-2018, 09:11 AM   #2
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Code:
	"UK Fontwell
Race 
3

Post 
9:10

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,428"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	4	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	39
2ND HORSE	2	39
2ND HORSE	3	13
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	9
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
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Old 01-21-2018, 09:20 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
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Old 01-21-2018, 10:25 AM   #4
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posted in error . deleted
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Last edited by formula_2002; 01-21-2018 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 01-21-2018, 10:51 AM   #5
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6

Post 
10:50

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,602"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	29
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	9
2ND HORSE	4	26
2ND HORSE	5	10
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	4
2ND HORSE	10	22
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$2,638 	
% win pool played played	91%
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Old 01-21-2018, 12:54 PM   #6
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12:50

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$52,481"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	3	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	3
2ND HORSE	2	19
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	21
2ND HORSE	5	11
2ND HORSE	6	39
2ND HORSE	7	6
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$49,592 	
% win pool played played	100%
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:07 PM   #7
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MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,937"			
	PGNO	BET SIZE		
FAVORITE	7	BET SIZE		
2ND HORSE	1	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	2	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	3	18	72.01	393.18
2ND HORSE	4	61	238.40	393.18
2ND HORSE	5	10	40.52	393.18
2ND HORSE	6	3	11.52	393.18
2ND HORSE	7	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	8	8	30.73	393.18
2ND HORSE	9	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	10	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	11	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	12	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	13	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	14	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	15	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	16	----	0.00	393.18
		100.00	393.18	
win pool	$21,157 			
% win pool played played	94%
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:40 PM   #8
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Code:
	"Gulfstream Park
Race 
4

Post 
1:36

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$86,473"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	29
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	8
2ND HORSE	6	7
2ND HORSE	7	55
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$73,279 	
% win pool played played	96%
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Old 01-21-2018, 02:01 PM   #9
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Code:
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2:00

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,843"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	5	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	75
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	2
2ND HORSE	7	8
2ND HORSE	8	15
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$8,062 	
% win pool played played	97%
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Old 01-21-2018, 02:07 PM   #10
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Code:
	"Gulfstream Park
Race 
5

Post 
2:05

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,101"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	3	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	22
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	11
2ND HORSE	5	33
2ND HORSE	6	24
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$37,986 	
% win pool played played	96%
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Old 01-21-2018, 02:25 PM   #11
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Code:
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MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$122,377"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	2	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	22
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	12
2ND HORSE	4	16
2ND HORSE	5	6
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	45
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$111,559 	
% win pool played played	100%
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Old 01-21-2018, 03:25 PM   #12
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	"Aqueduct
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Post 
3:26

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$73,710"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	8
2ND HORSE	2	6
2ND HORSE	3	15
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	31
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	34
2ND HORSE	10	7
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$64,681 	
% win pool played played	92%
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Old 01-21-2018, 03:36 PM   #13
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Code:
	"Tampa Bay Downs
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MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$24,724"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	9
2ND HORSE	6	62
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	5
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	15
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$16,375 	
% win pool played played	91%
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Old 01-21-2018, 04:20 PM   #14
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	"Tampa Bay Downs
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MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,801"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	4	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	23
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	12
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	8
2ND HORSE	9	47
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$24,386 	
% win pool played played	89%
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Old 01-21-2018, 05:36 PM   #15
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Code:
	"Santa Anita Park
Race 
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Post 
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MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,970"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	6	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	6
2ND HORSE	2	76
2ND HORSE	3	7
2ND HORSE	4	11
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$68,062 	
% win pool played played	97%
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