Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-21-2018, 08:24 AM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
exacta plays that, in the long run, outperform win plays

IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 09:11 AM   #2
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"UK Fontwell
Race 
3

Post 
9:10

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,428"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	4	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	39
2ND HORSE	2	39
2ND HORSE	3	13
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	9
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 09:20 AM   #3
georgetkingiv
Registered User
 
georgetkingiv's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 25,949
Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
__________________
The sport of kings
georgetkingiv is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 10:25 AM   #4
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
posted in error . deleted
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 01-21-2018 at 10:35 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 10:51 AM   #5
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"IRE Thurles
Race 
6

Post 
10:50

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,602"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	29
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	9
2ND HORSE	4	26
2ND HORSE	5	10
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	4
2ND HORSE	10	22
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$2,638 	
% win pool played played	91%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 12:54 PM   #6
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Aqueduct
Race 
2

Post 
12:50

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$52,481"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	3	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	3
2ND HORSE	2	19
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	21
2ND HORSE	5	11
2ND HORSE	6	39
2ND HORSE	7	6
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$49,592 	
% win pool played played	100%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 01:07 PM   #7
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Gulfstream Park
Race 
3

Post 
1:05

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,937"			
	PGNO	BET SIZE		
FAVORITE	7	BET SIZE		
2ND HORSE	1	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	2	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	3	18	72.01	393.18
2ND HORSE	4	61	238.40	393.18
2ND HORSE	5	10	40.52	393.18
2ND HORSE	6	3	11.52	393.18
2ND HORSE	7	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	8	8	30.73	393.18
2ND HORSE	9	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	10	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	11	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	12	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	13	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	14	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	15	----	0.00	393.18
2ND HORSE	16	----	0.00	393.18
		100.00	393.18	
win pool	$21,157 			
% win pool played played	94%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 01:40 PM   #8
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Gulfstream Park
Race 
4

Post 
1:36

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$86,473"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	29
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	8
2ND HORSE	6	7
2ND HORSE	7	55
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$73,279 	
% win pool played played	96%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 02:01 PM   #9
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Fair Grounds
Race 
1

Post 
2:00

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,843"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	5	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	75
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	2
2ND HORSE	7	8
2ND HORSE	8	15
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$8,062 	
% win pool played played	97%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 02:07 PM   #10
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Gulfstream Park
Race 
5

Post 
2:05

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,101"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	3	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	22
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	11
2ND HORSE	5	33
2ND HORSE	6	24
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$37,986 	
% win pool played played	96%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 02:25 PM   #11
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Aqueduct
Race 
5

Post 
2:24

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$122,377"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	2	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	22
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	12
2ND HORSE	4	16
2ND HORSE	5	6
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	45
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$111,559 	
% win pool played played	100%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 03:25 PM   #12
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Aqueduct
Race 
7

Post 
3:26

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$73,710"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	8
2ND HORSE	2	6
2ND HORSE	3	15
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	31
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	34
2ND HORSE	10	7
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$64,681 	
% win pool played played	92%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 03:36 PM   #13
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Tampa Bay Downs
Race 
7

Post 
3:35

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$24,724"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	8	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	----
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	9
2ND HORSE	6	62
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	5
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	15
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$16,375 	
% win pool played played	91%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 04:20 PM   #14
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Tampa Bay Downs
Race 
8

Post 
4:17

MTP 
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,801"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	4	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	----
2ND HORSE	2	----
2ND HORSE	3	23
2ND HORSE	4	----
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	12
2ND HORSE	7	10
2ND HORSE	8	8
2ND HORSE	9	47
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$24,386 	
% win pool played played	89%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2018, 05:36 PM   #15
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Santa Anita Park
Race 
5

Post 
5:36

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,970"	
	PGNO	BET SIZE
FAVORITE	6	BET SIZE
2ND HORSE	1	6
2ND HORSE	2	76
2ND HORSE	3	7
2ND HORSE	4	11
2ND HORSE	5	----
2ND HORSE	6	----
2ND HORSE	7	----
2ND HORSE	8	----
2ND HORSE	9	----
2ND HORSE	10	----
2ND HORSE	11	----
2ND HORSE	12	----
2ND HORSE	13	----
2ND HORSE	14	----
2ND HORSE	15	----
2ND HORSE	16	----
		100.00
win pool	$68,062 	
% win pool played played	97%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.