Saratoga&Del Mar 'Train-of Thought' welcome to play along&share your $0.02 - Page 68 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

coachv30 · 08-08-2018, 05:33 PM

DMR 2

SOUTH AMERICAN

/

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 12:29 PM

ugly card at first-glance

only two obvious decent betting races

race 5 = has enough horses to hold a race AND is on the same surface that the race was scheduled

race 8 = has enough horses to hold a race AND is on the same surface that the race was scheduled

However, keep an eye out for turf horses getting bet on dirt. Keep an eye out for an opportunity anywhere (yesterday's day-maker was a long shot in a short field)

Fightingirish51195 · 08-09-2018, 01:00 PM

20 win

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 01:01 PM

1248 are dirt fillies, pass this guessing race 1

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

1248 are dirt fillies, pass this guessing race 1

mildly annoying when your 'guess' comes in on a guess-race, but I'm not here to guess. Glad I passed.

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 01:16 PM

Can't make a case for betting the second race today.

Was looking at doubles to the third race's

, but there are too few horses and it's not really paying better than the ml fave in race-3.

Going to pass races 2 and 3 and run an errand.

jay68802 · 08-09-2018, 01:30 PM

Race #2:

Double:

/

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

Race #2:

Double:

/

Great call

jay68802 · 08-09-2018, 02:35 PM

Race #4:

25WP:

Phone Funky Munky

jay68802 · 08-09-2018, 03:23 PM

Race #5:

Keep on shooting, track seems to be favoring early types today.

20WP:

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 03:56 PM

Just going to watch the heavy chalk

Ticonderoga here.

Alternatives??

is a heck of a value right now. This race is loaded with pace.
If the

doesn't fire for some reason (and he looks like he'll cruise to the easiest of wins), the only two stretch-runners left in the race are the

(10/1) and the :7(6/1).

We know the

is mediocre, but there's a fair chance that the

is as good or better. An unknown that seems to have some potential.

Normally, I'd champion the

Black Tide to steal, but the

and

figure to press...

$2 cold exacta 4 over 5 =$2
$2 win

= $2

$50cent tri 4 / 1,5,7 / 1,5,7 =$3

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 04:41 PM

so the

PINK TWIST did less running than the

last time. There's a slight value edge to the

, but their talent level makes that a bit closer of a call than I'd like. = I wan't obvious no-brainers.

one piece of this puzzle that fits the no-brainer mantra is TOSSING the

. She's a red herring. Bum who rode the flow in a slow paced race last time.

The

is mildly interesting for value. She has both the tactical speed of the

and the raw talent of the

. But she's more of a risk to throw in a clunker , and is pretty much appropriately priced on the board

The

has decent enough fundamentals that she could get 3rd or even 2nd with a patient ride.

Not enough money going to the

for to warrant a bet in this race; pass.

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

so the

PINK TWIST did less running than the

last time. There's a slight value edge to the

, but their talent level makes that a bit closer of a call than I'd like. = I wan't obvious no-brainers.

one piece of this puzzle that fits the no-brainer mantra is TOSSING the

. She's a red herring. Bum who rode the flow in a slow paced race last time.

The

is mildly interesting for value. She has both the tactical speed of the

and the raw talent of the

. But she's more of a risk to throw in a clunker , and is pretty much appropriately priced on the board

The

has decent enough fundamentals that she could get 3rd or even 2nd with a patient ride.

Not enough money going to the

for to warrant a bet in this race; pass.

Formful race

with the

being 2nd best and losing second because of trying to win, and the

parlaying good fundamentals and the proper ride.

Just not a good betting race with only 6 horses in the field and only 3 win-contenders.

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 05:17 PM

I can't see any value.

Interested to see the

. Looks the best on film and arguably paper. Slight worry when a horse slips up the rail to improve position mid-race (when betting 'em back , not when keying them that day!)

Interested to see the

try to go turf. Is a long shot that he's simply the best and will also take to turf, just can't touch below 6/1 and he's about 7/2.

Robert Fischer · 08-09-2018, 05:34 PM

is a good measuring stick for those fillies, because we kind of know her as a bit sluggish.

She almost won the miller lite photo, so the race wasn't as strong as could have been.

had to do a little more work today.

Kreesie ran OK worth a look on the replay. She was fractious in the gate, had to be re-loaded, and then when the running started, Saez and the

brushed with her behind horses. Maybe slightly better value next time...

TOUGH CARD

i missed the one opportunity for value that I remember in the entire card (betting

Maimo to win (i bet him in a pick-3 to the Ticonderoga lock , but Potomac chalked it up) where he was a $10 horse that should have paid $5).

Rest of the card was barren.

Better racing tomorrow and into the weekend